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LTE
Deployments stepping up
Markets & trends
Contact: Frédéric PUJOL                    28 February 2012
+33 (0)4 67 14 44 50 - f.pujol@idate.org




                                                              1
Content




 LTE commercial services

 LTE subscriptions - forecasts

 Devices

 MNOs’ strategies - Conclusions




                                   2
World LTE market : a watch servie from IDATE




                                               3
LTE deployment roadmap

                                                          Geographical mapping of early LTE commercial deployment
 At the end of 2011 there were close to 10 million
  LTE subscriptions worldwide.

 More than 60% of the LTE subscribers were in                                             Europe

  the USA and Verizon Wireless was representing
  close to 90% of this figure - 160 M pop. at mid-
  2011 - nationwide by 2013
                                                       Canada and USA


 Today more than 50 commercial LTE networks                                                                      Asia

  – both FDD and TDD

 USA, Japan and South Korea are leading the
  pack
Major operators LTE commercial deployment schedule        LTE subscribers 3Q 2011
                2009   2010    2011    2012     2013
                                                         Rank           MNO                         Country              Subscribers

  3GPP WCDMA
    Operators                                                  1        Verizon Wireless            USA                         3 165 000

                                                               2        NTT DoCoMo                  Japan                         388 600
  TD- SCDMA
                                                               3        SK Telecom                  South Korea                   250 000

                                                               4        TeliaSonera                 Sweden                        200 000
    3GPP2
    CDMA                                                       5        Tele2                       Sweden                        105 000
   operators

Source: IDATE                                           Source: IDATE
                                                                                                                                       4
Review of LTE devices availability
 Dongles & mobile hot-spots                                             Mobile handsets & smartphones

                                                                                                                                   AT&T’s first
                                                                                                                                   smartphones

  Samsung’s first LTE dongle
                                 Novatel MiFi 4510L mobile hotspot   Early LTE handsets:
                                                                     Samsung Craft and
                                                                       Galaxy Indulge

                               AT&T’s first mobile
                               hotspot and dongle                                          HTC Thunderbolt,                       HTC Velocity
                                                                                           Verizon, first LTE                     first LTE
                                                                                           Smartphone                             Smartphone
                                                                                                                                  in Europe
Dongles and personal hot-spot devices prove to                       Voice supported on 3G networks
be popular

 Tablets                                                               Other connected devices




     Motorola Xoom tablet           Samsung’s GalaxyTab 10.1             Sierra Wireless M2M LTE gateway        ZyXEL LTE fixed router


Tablets are an important part of the device offer                    Routers for rural areas (Germany, Verizon)

►30 Modules, 11 Tablets, 10 Notebooks, 2 PC Cards, 27 Smartphones, 70 Routers, 47 Dongles -
 Source: GSA 11/2011
►700 MHz: 106, 800 MHz: 42, 1800 MHz: 41, 2600 MHz: 52, 800/1800/2600 MHz: 32, AWS: 35
                                                                                                                                                 5
LTE subscriptions forecasts

 ► By the end of 2016, we forecast, there will be more than 830 million LTE
   subscriptions worldwide
 ► Of these, Asia-Pacific will represent 37.2% of the total, North America 23.8% and
   Western Europe 16.9%




                                                                                       6
   Source: IDATE (February 2012)
LTE tariffs

          Germany
Plan             Monthly rate   Network           Data     Device   Plan                        Monthly         Monthly       Overage fee
                 (EUR)                            cap                                           rate            data          (USD)
Mobile Internet            65   LTE               20 GB    Dongle                               (USD)           allowance
flat 50                                                             4G mobile broadband             50               5 GB           10 per 1 GB
Mobile Internet            45   Includes use of   10 GB    Dongle   plans (for 4G USB
flat 21.6                       LTE                                 modems and MiFi)
Mobile Internet            35   Includes use of   7.5 GB   Dongle                                   80              10 GB           10 per 1 GB
flat 14.4                       LTE                                 4G data plans for LTE           30               2 GB           10 per 1 GB
                                                                    smartphones
                                                                    (no tethering)
                                                                                                    50               5 GB           10 per 1 GB
                                                                                                    80              10 GB           10 per 1 GB
                                                                    4G data plans for LTE           50               4 GB           10 per 1 GB
                                                                    smartphones with
                                                                    tethering
                                                                                                    70               7 GB           10 per 1 GB
                                                                                                   100              12 GB           10 per 1 GB


                                                                    Name and        Speed/      USB-             Data       Monthly    Monthly
                                                                    scope of                    modem            volume     rate       rate
                                                                                    ‘Surfzone
                                                                    rate plan                                               (SEK)      (EUR)
                                                                                    ’ hotspot   (for contract
                                                                                                of 24 months)
                                                                                    speed
                                                                    Mellan 4G       Up to 20    Included          10 GB         249         28
                                                                    (Intermediate   Mbps
                                                                    4G’)
                                                                    Stor 4G         Up to 40    Included          20 GB         349         39
                                                                    (‘Grand 4G’)    Mbps
                                                                    Total 4G                    Included          30 GB         499         56
                                                                    (‘Total 4G’)
                                                                                                                                            7
Source: IDATE (February 2012)
The LTE wholesale model

 Many actors using new spectrum (satellite L-Band, S-band, 2.3 GHz…)
 Consolidation likely in the USA & LightSquared out of the game
 Difficulties in Russia
Sharing and wholesale model can be combined

                                                                                                                                        Sharing
                                                                                                                                      agreement?

                    Will sell LTE

              ?      capacity



                                    Provides cells                                                                        Sells LTE
                                      sites and                                                                           capacity?
                                    helps building                 Sells Mobile
                                     theterrstrial                   WiMAX
                                    LTE network                     capacity


    Will sell LTE
    capacity to
    MVNOs and
    distributors                                                                                                                           Sells LTE
                                                                                                                                           capacity




                                                     Plans to build a wholesale LTE
                                                      network in the S-band (USA)


                                                                                                           Builds a wholesale LTE network in
                                                                                                             the 1800 MHz band (Poland)




                                                                                      Builds a wholesale LTE network in
                                                                                       the 2.3 GHz band for rural areas
                        Build a common GSM and LTE
                               network (Sweden)




                                                                                                                                                       Source: IDATE
                                                                                                                                                                       8
Conclusions

 Mobile sector still dynamic in the USA & Asia, struggling in Europe

 Devices:           > Smarphones representing a growing part of devices shipments

                      > LTE devices coming slowly to the market
                      > The US market is currently the priority for LTE device manufacturers

 LTE networks:      > RAN available, LTE commercial networks in 2010
                      > IMS core networks being built, key to VoLTE offering
                     > LTE delivers the expected data rates and latency
                      > LTE-Advanced: probably earlier than expected

 LTE is seen as a solution to congestion and saturation network issues in
  dense areas
 LTE can be a differentiating tool in very competitive markets
 LTE spectrum:       > Fragmentation risk
                     > Regional harmonization likely

 MNOs strategies: > New technology path
                     > More capacity / higher data rates
                     > Network sharing developing and wholesale operators appearing            9
Thank you!



             10

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IDATE - LTE 2012 : Deployments stepping up

  • 1. LTE Deployments stepping up Markets & trends Contact: Frédéric PUJOL 28 February 2012 +33 (0)4 67 14 44 50 - f.pujol@idate.org 1
  • 2. Content  LTE commercial services  LTE subscriptions - forecasts  Devices  MNOs’ strategies - Conclusions 2
  • 3. World LTE market : a watch servie from IDATE 3
  • 4. LTE deployment roadmap Geographical mapping of early LTE commercial deployment  At the end of 2011 there were close to 10 million LTE subscriptions worldwide.  More than 60% of the LTE subscribers were in Europe the USA and Verizon Wireless was representing close to 90% of this figure - 160 M pop. at mid- 2011 - nationwide by 2013 Canada and USA  Today more than 50 commercial LTE networks Asia – both FDD and TDD  USA, Japan and South Korea are leading the pack Major operators LTE commercial deployment schedule LTE subscribers 3Q 2011 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Rank MNO Country Subscribers 3GPP WCDMA Operators 1 Verizon Wireless USA 3 165 000 2 NTT DoCoMo Japan 388 600 TD- SCDMA 3 SK Telecom South Korea 250 000 4 TeliaSonera Sweden 200 000 3GPP2 CDMA 5 Tele2 Sweden 105 000 operators Source: IDATE Source: IDATE 4
  • 5. Review of LTE devices availability Dongles & mobile hot-spots Mobile handsets & smartphones AT&T’s first smartphones Samsung’s first LTE dongle Novatel MiFi 4510L mobile hotspot Early LTE handsets: Samsung Craft and Galaxy Indulge AT&T’s first mobile hotspot and dongle HTC Thunderbolt, HTC Velocity Verizon, first LTE first LTE Smartphone Smartphone in Europe Dongles and personal hot-spot devices prove to Voice supported on 3G networks be popular Tablets Other connected devices Motorola Xoom tablet Samsung’s GalaxyTab 10.1 Sierra Wireless M2M LTE gateway ZyXEL LTE fixed router Tablets are an important part of the device offer Routers for rural areas (Germany, Verizon) ►30 Modules, 11 Tablets, 10 Notebooks, 2 PC Cards, 27 Smartphones, 70 Routers, 47 Dongles - Source: GSA 11/2011 ►700 MHz: 106, 800 MHz: 42, 1800 MHz: 41, 2600 MHz: 52, 800/1800/2600 MHz: 32, AWS: 35 5
  • 6. LTE subscriptions forecasts ► By the end of 2016, we forecast, there will be more than 830 million LTE subscriptions worldwide ► Of these, Asia-Pacific will represent 37.2% of the total, North America 23.8% and Western Europe 16.9% 6 Source: IDATE (February 2012)
  • 7. LTE tariffs Germany Plan Monthly rate Network Data Device Plan Monthly Monthly Overage fee (EUR) cap rate data (USD) Mobile Internet 65 LTE 20 GB Dongle (USD) allowance flat 50 4G mobile broadband 50 5 GB 10 per 1 GB Mobile Internet 45 Includes use of 10 GB Dongle plans (for 4G USB flat 21.6 LTE modems and MiFi) Mobile Internet 35 Includes use of 7.5 GB Dongle 80 10 GB 10 per 1 GB flat 14.4 LTE 4G data plans for LTE 30 2 GB 10 per 1 GB smartphones (no tethering) 50 5 GB 10 per 1 GB 80 10 GB 10 per 1 GB 4G data plans for LTE 50 4 GB 10 per 1 GB smartphones with tethering 70 7 GB 10 per 1 GB 100 12 GB 10 per 1 GB Name and Speed/ USB- Data Monthly Monthly scope of modem volume rate rate ‘Surfzone rate plan (SEK) (EUR) ’ hotspot (for contract of 24 months) speed Mellan 4G Up to 20 Included 10 GB 249 28 (Intermediate Mbps 4G’) Stor 4G Up to 40 Included 20 GB 349 39 (‘Grand 4G’) Mbps Total 4G Included 30 GB 499 56 (‘Total 4G’) 7 Source: IDATE (February 2012)
  • 8. The LTE wholesale model  Many actors using new spectrum (satellite L-Band, S-band, 2.3 GHz…)  Consolidation likely in the USA & LightSquared out of the game  Difficulties in Russia Sharing and wholesale model can be combined Sharing agreement? Will sell LTE ? capacity Provides cells Sells LTE sites and capacity? helps building Sells Mobile theterrstrial WiMAX LTE network capacity Will sell LTE capacity to MVNOs and distributors Sells LTE capacity Plans to build a wholesale LTE network in the S-band (USA) Builds a wholesale LTE network in the 1800 MHz band (Poland) Builds a wholesale LTE network in the 2.3 GHz band for rural areas Build a common GSM and LTE network (Sweden) Source: IDATE 8
  • 9. Conclusions  Mobile sector still dynamic in the USA & Asia, struggling in Europe  Devices: > Smarphones representing a growing part of devices shipments > LTE devices coming slowly to the market > The US market is currently the priority for LTE device manufacturers  LTE networks: > RAN available, LTE commercial networks in 2010 > IMS core networks being built, key to VoLTE offering > LTE delivers the expected data rates and latency > LTE-Advanced: probably earlier than expected  LTE is seen as a solution to congestion and saturation network issues in dense areas  LTE can be a differentiating tool in very competitive markets  LTE spectrum: > Fragmentation risk > Regional harmonization likely  MNOs strategies: > New technology path > More capacity / higher data rates > Network sharing developing and wholesale operators appearing 9