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Pete Silvester - Re-configuring economic development approaches


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Pete Silvester - Re-configuring economic development approaches

  1. 1. Reconfiguring Economic Development Approaches: How Myanmar can/will reshape development futures Development Futures Conference Sydney, 21 & 22 November Pete Silvester MPA, BCom, BA (Hons.) Partner, Morris & Silvester
  2. 2. Who we are • Myanmar-based strategy consultants, since August 2012 • Pride ourselves on: – Evidence-based problem solving – Knowledge of development, and of Myanmar – Integrity (GHD Integrity Management System) • Only take on projects which: – Have sustained positive theory of change – We know we can deliver Sunday, 22 December 2013 INGO Forum Review 2
  3. 3. Pete Silvester Allison Morris Nilar Wynn Zar Chi Development Consultant and Policy Expert Development Consultant and Policy Expert Researcher and consultant Office Manager Formerly with: OECD, Aidha (Director); CERI; Womens Refugee Network; Berry, Appleman & Lieden LLP. Has worked with Morris & Silvester for CARE-Myanmar, Emerging Markets Consulting (for Volkswagen and Oxfam), and HelpAge International. Myanmar national Formerly with: Booz & Company; The World Bank; OECD; Australian Government. Master of Public Policy from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. Master of Public Affairs from Sciences Po, Paris. First Class Honours in Development Studies, University of Melbourne Sunday, 22 December 2013 Master of Public Affairs (Magna Cum Laude) from Sciences Po, Paris. Bachelor’s of International Studies from Emory University. Holds a Bachelor of Science in Mathematics Professionally trained in computers and tourism management Myanmar national Holds a Bachelor of Arts from Yangon University INGO Forum Review 3
  4. 4. Who we work with Development • • • • OECD CARE World Bank HelpAge International Private Sector • • • • University of Indiana, Kelly School of Business Emerging Market Consulting Ringier AG West Indochina CSR Partners • • • • Kaufmann Foundation (GEW) European Union British Council Ooredoo, MBE, and others Sunday, 22 December 2013 INGO Forum Review 4
  5. 5. We’re also Myanmar’s first incubator Sunday, 22 December 2013 INGO Forum Review 5
  6. 6. Romp through Myanmar history 1947 Colonial period ends 1947 Bogyoke Aung San assassinated 1948 Independence 1958 First (temporary) coup d’état by the military 1962 Military coup: Burmese way of socialism 1988 Following unrest, the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) takes power through an internal coup. Myanmar is declared a market economy. 1990 National League for Democracy (NLD) wins election, but results are 1990annulled by SLORC. Sanctions imposed. 1997 Myanmar joins ASEAN. 2005 Capital moved from Yangon (formerly Rangoon) to Nay Pyi Taw 2008 Cyclone Nargis devastates the Irrawaddy delta, killing up to 150 000 2010 Elections boycotted by NLD 2011 General Than Shwe steps aside. U Thein Sein becomes president. 2012 NLD wins 43 seats in by-elections. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is elected. 2014 Myanmar to chair ASEAN for the first time Sunday, 22 December 2013 INGO Forum Review 6 2015 General elections to be held in December
  7. 7. At a glance • Population: 50-60 million (?) • Population growth rate: 0.7% p.a. • GDP per capita: $580 p.a. • HDI: 0.483 (150th) • Connectivity: Very low • Infrastructure: Shocking • Opportunities: Amazing! Sunday, 22 December 2013 INGO Forum Review 7
  8. 8. Current dominant narratives • Davos bullishness – Geostrategic advantages – Natural resources – Very reform-minded (business friendly) government Sunday, 22 December 2013 Development Futures Conference 8
  9. 9. Current dominant narratives • Meanwhile, a familiar story… – Inflation (development bubble) – Growing inequality – Environmental degradation – Corruption – Violence Sunday, 22 December 2013 INGO Forum Review 9
  10. 10. Current dominant narratives • Asian economic growth model – Increase production factors – capital and labour – Attract foreign investment – Start with low wage industry, and earn your way up the value chain Is that all we’ve got? Sunday, 22 December 2013 INGO Forum Review 10
  11. 11. Our objective for today To develop plausible futures that challenge the pre-existing narrative of Asian economic development, particularly for Myanmar. Sunday, 22 December 2013 INGO Forum Review 11
  12. 12. Roles – Facilitator (me): - Provide minimal background info - Encourage you to open your mind and shed your preconceptions - Guide brainstorming through some basic stages Sunday, 22 December 2013 INGO Forum Review 12
  13. 13. Roles – Participants (you): - Bring your knowledge, leave your preconceptions - Think macro, long term - 10 years to 50 years - No so much about current status quo and current drivers, but possible future drivers and future status quos - Also think micro when describing a future - Be a story-teller - Get creative - Have fun - Silly ideas are more fun, and are usually the best ones - If your professional persona isn’t fun, leave it outside Sunday,- December 2013 22 Own the space INGO Forum Review 13
  14. 14. Identifying assumptions of the Asian Model of development What are the “assumptions” of the Asian model? Sunday, 22 December 2013 INGO Forum Review 14
  15. 15. Drivers of change Which of these identified “assumptions” are going to persist, which will change? What current and future forces are going to change or negate the Asian Model narrative? Sunday, 22 December 2013 INGO Forum Review 15
  16. 16. Link up a framework Which drivers could plausibly effect another? Link them. Which drivers don’t seem to link very well? Kill them. Are there common themes and stories emerging? Cluster them Sunday, 22 December 2013 INGO Forum Review 16
  17. 17. Write narrative Pick your favourite cluster. Make up a story about the links and write it down. Richly describe the world in your story: Characters. How the world works. Events. Development outcomes. Sunday, 22 December 2013 INGO Forum Review 17
  18. 18. Tell your story Sunday, 22 December 2013 INGO Forum Review 18
  19. 19. Thank you Pete Silvester Partner, Morris & Silvester | Co-founder, Project Hub Yangon #203 United Condo, 39 Alan Pya Pagoda Road, Yangon +95 (0) 9 3121 6412 | +61 413 350 007 Twitter: @petesilvo | @HubYangon Sunday, 22 December 2013 INGO Forum Review 19