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The Intelligent Investor.pdf

Mar. 28, 2023
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The Intelligent Investor.pdf

  1. THE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR Authored by BENJAMIN GRAHAM "By far the best book on investing ever written" - Warren Buffet
  2. A Sound Intellectual Framework Emotional Discipline 1. 2. 1 “ To Invest successfully over a lifetime does not require a stratospheric IQ, unusual Business insights, or insider Information. What's needed is: Provided by the Book We have to Supply - Warren Buffet in Preface “
  3. 1. INVESTMENT VS SPECULATION An Investment operation is one that, upon thorough analysis, promises the safety of the principal and an adequate return. Operations Not Meeting these requirements are Speculative. Results to be expected by the intelligent investor depend on their approach to investing. Importance of Conducting thorough research and analysis before making investment decisions rather than blindly following market trends. 2
  4. Total Number of Individual traders participation in equity F&O Segment 3 FY 19 FY22 50,00,000 40,00,000 30,00,000 20,00,000 10,00,000 0 Sebi study of traders in the Equity F&O Segment.
  5. Defensive The Defensive investor is someone who is primarily concerned with preserving capital and avoiding losses. Stability > Growth Aggressive The Aggressive investor is someone who is willing to take on more risk in order to potentially earn higher returns. Comfortable with Volatility DEFENSIVE VS AGGRESSIVE INVESTORS 4
  6. 2. INVESTOR AND INFLATION What is Inflation? The Money Illusion. 2 % Raise and 4 % Inflation 2 % Cut and 0 % Inflation How to Protect against Infaltion? Stocks that have history of increasing dividend High Quality Bonds that protect against Inflation. Diversifying across range of asset classes. 5
  7. INFLATION! The author emphasizes the importance of understanding the impact of Inflation on investment decisions and taking proactive steps to protect against its effects. 6
  8. Author emphasises on Long Term Perspective What is P/E Ratio? General P/E Ratio = 15 Individual Stocks having High P/E Ratio Current State of the market Overvalued Stocks Warns that market will not necessarily continue to grow 3. CENTURY OF STOCK MARKET HISTORY 7
  9. 8 1972 1972 1973-1974 1973-1974
  10. Safety + Stability > High Returns Key Principles: Diversification across a range of industries and asset classes. Focus on Quality - High Quality stocks and bonds with a long history of stable earnings and dividends. Avoiding Excessive Trading Activity which can cause high expenses and significantly erode investment returns. 4. GENERAL PORTFOLIO: THE DEFENSIVE INVESTOR 9
  11. Short-term goals Long-term goals Risk tolerance Time horizon Investment Goals 10 5. The Defensive Investor and Common Stocks How should an individual's personal situation be taken into account when selecting securities for their portfolio, in light of the general investment policy discussed in this chapter? Income level Expenses Current assets Liabilities Financial Situation Regulatory constraints Tax considerations Liquidity needs Ethical and social considerations Investment Constraints
  12. Rule 1: There should be adequate diversification Rule 2: Each company selected should be large, prominent, and conservatively financed. Rule 3: Each company should have a long record of continuous dividend payments. Rule 4: The stocks should be bought at a price that is not too high. Rules to be followed by The defensive investor 11 Growth Stocks and Defensive Investor A growth stock is a stock that has increased its per-share earnings at a rate higher than common stocks and is expected to continue to do so in the future. IBM has been the leading growth stock, but it has experienced significant market price declines in the past. Growth stocks are uncertain and risky for the defensive investor, who should instead consider large companies that are relatively reliable
  13. 12 6. Portfolio Policy for the Enterprising Investor: Negative Approach The punches you miss are the ones that wear you out. —Boxing trainer Angelo Dundee What does Graham suggest about diversifying your bond portfolio with foreign bonds compared to today's options, and what are his "don'ts" for aggressive investors when it comes to high-yield bonds?
  14. Junkyard Dogs: High-yield bonds Foreign bonds with poor credit ratings Unfamiliar foreign currencies Long-term bonds with low credit ratings 13 Graham's "Don'ts" for Aggressive Investors Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) Bond mutual funds Corporate bonds with high credit ratings Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Today's Options for Diversifying Bond Portfolio
  15. ETFs: Low fees and diversification, but risk of market fluctuations Bond mutual funds: Professional management and diversification, but potential for high fees Corporate bonds with high credit ratings: Higher yields than government bonds, but risk of default TIPS: Protection against inflation, but lower yields than other options. 14 Advantages and Risks of Each Option Importance of carefully considering options for diversifying bond portfolio Balancing risk and potential returns Monitoring and adjusting portfolio as needed. 1. 2. 3. Conclusion
  16. 15 What factors contribute to the seemingly unstoppable rise of growth stocks such as General Electric, Home Depot, and Sun Microsystems, and how can investors navigate the unpredictable market fluctuations that often accompany them? 7.Portfolio Policy for the Enterprising Investor: The Positive Side It requires a great deal of boldness and a great deal of caution to make a great fortune; and when you have got it, it requires ten times as much wit to keep it. —Nathan Mayer Rothschild
  17. The impact of timing General Electric's decline Home Depot's struggle to adapt Sun Microsystems' downfall 16 The fall of growth stocks Market conditions and trends Company management and leadership Innovation and technology Financial performance and metrics Factors contributing to growth stock success
  18. 17 Strategies for Buying Big Growth Stocks Focusing on Industry Leaders Investing in Companies with a Clear Growth Strategy Paying Attention to Valuation Metrics Diversifying Your Portfolio
  19. The importance of diversification The need for continued innovation and adaptation The role of timing in investing Balancing risk and reward in growth stocks 18 Lessons learned from growth stock
  20. 19 8. Investing in Investment Funds What are the advantages and disadvantages of investing in mutual funds, which were introduced in 1924 by Edward G. Leffler and are known for being affordable, convenient, diversified, and professionally managed? Types of mutual funds Equity funds Bond funds Money market funds Hybrid funds
  21. 20 Pros of investing in mutual funds Diversification Professional management Low cost Convenient Cons of investing in mutual funds Lack of control Fees and expenses Risk of underperformance Tax implications
  22. 21 What are the high-risk obstacles that investors face when investing in funds that produce high returns, as discussed in the article, including migrating managers, asset elephantiasis, no more fancy footwork, rising expenses, and sheepish behavior? Manager Migration Definition and explanation of manager migration Risks involved with manager migration How to identify funds with high risk of manager migration Strategies for mitigating risks associated with manager migration
  23. 22 Asset Elephantiasis Definition and explanation of asset elephantiasis Risks involved with asset elephantiasis How to identify funds with high risk of asset elephantiasis Strategies for mitigating risks associated with asset elephantiasis No More Fancy Footwork Definition and explanation of no more fancy footwork Risks involved with no more fancy footwork How to identify funds with high risk of no more fancy footwork Strategies for mitigating risks associated with no more fancy footwork
  24. 23 Rising Expenses and Sheepish Behavior Definition and explanation of rising expenses and sheepish behavior Risks involved with rising expenses and sheepish behavior How to identify funds with high risk of rising expenses and sheepish behavior Strategies for mitigating risks associated with rising expenses and sheepish behavior
  25. Satisfactory P/E Ratio A Sound Investment Strong Financial Position Longevity of Performance 9. The Investor and Market Fluctuations 24 Correct Timing Right Pricing Profit from Pendulum Swings Where to Invest? A Swing Trader's Strategy
  26. 25 Graham's Message: "Kryptonite for the Bear Market" Be scarcely "forced to sell" your shares Don't focus on short term fluctuations but instead in the long term underlying value of the company. Don't be stampeded by unjustified market declines Investors overly concerned with market fluctuations, are prone to make poor investment decisions. Don't let other's poor judgement affect your investment decisions. Don't overvalue market quotations Market quotations are widely defined by the supply and demand of the stock and do not reflect the true valued potiential of the company. This chapter provides a valuable reminder that market fluctuations are a normal and inevitable part of investing, and that investors should maintain a disciplined, long-term approach in the face of volatility.
  27. 10. The Investor and his Advisors 26 Need and Importance? Evaluation Metrics Investor's Responsibility Trust or Not? This chapter provides detailed guidance on how to evaluate financial advisors and avoid unethical advisors, while emphasizing the importance of maintaining an independent mindset and taking personal responsibility for investment decisions.
  28. F i n a ncial Ana l y s i s Security Analysis 27 11. Security Analysis for the Lay Investor This chapter emphasizes the importance of conducting thorough security analysis. The chapter provides practical guidance on how to approach stock selection. Management Factors Affecting Capitalization Rate Dividend Record Current Dividend Rate
  29. 30%: Increase in average daily flights 16: New international routes launched or announced 1,200: New employees added to the workforce 2x: Increase in average daily revenue of the airline Source: Business Standard Publish Date: January 27, 2023 The Takeover Success: Air India 2.0 28
  30. 12. Things to Consider About Per-Share Earnings 29 Earnings per share (EPS) is calculated by dividing a company's net income by the total number of outstanding shares. Case Study Non-recurring events, results high EPS value, which misguided the investors. Long-term earning trends were volatile to Aluminium prices and production levels. Observation Solution Use of Average Earnings. A 10-year and 7-year mean is "useful for ironing out" fluctuations in company profitability and business cycle. This chapter warns against using per-share earnings as the sole metric for evaluating a company and highlights the importance of examining other factors.
  31. 13. A Comparison of Four Listed Companies Eltra Corporation Emerson Electric Company Emery Air Freight Emhart Corporation. The four companies which Graham compares are 1. 2. 3. 4. Graham’s detailed comparison of the companies is based on a collection of financial data compiled. 30
  32. Chief Elements of Performance Profitability Stability Growth Financial Position Dividends Price History. We’ll use the tables below to take a closer look at 31
  33. 14. Stock Selection for the Defensive Investor Adequate size A sufficiently strong financial condition Continued Dividends for at least 20 years No earnings deficit in the past ten years Ten-year growth of at least one-third in per-share earnings Price of stock no more than 1.5 times net asset value (NAV) Price no more than 15 times average earnings of the past three year. Graham takes us through what we should look for in stocks if we’re going to pick stocks and are of the Defensive Investor disposition. The Seven Quality and Quantity Criteria 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 32
  34. 15. Stock Selection for the Enterprising Investor Graham notes that he cannot offer one particular style for all aggressive investors, but suggests that they consider all of the reasonable market that fits their parameters at an original paring of results. The better way is to look for cyclical enterprises , when the current situation is unfavorable, the near-term prospects are poor, and the low price fully reflects the current pessimism. 33
  35. 16. Convertible Issues and Warrants Graham explains what the investor should understand about convertible bonds and preferred stocks. He opens by defining stock- option warrants as : long term rights to buy common shares at stipulated prices. Graham also cautions that convertible issues can be complex and difficult to evaluate. He advises investors to carefully examine the terms and conditions of a convertible issue before investing, paying particular attention to the conversion ratio, the conversion price, and the yield to maturity. 34
  36. 17. Four Extremely Instructive Case Histories 35 Invest in co. with strong financial discipline NVF Corp. Wait for a better buying opportunity Patience and discipline in investing Ling-Temco-Vought Inc. Not to rely on speculation alone Importance of diversification AAA Enterprises. Importance of analyzing financial statements Penn Central Co. Emphasizes the importance of value investing and thorough analysis of statements and balance sheets. Serves as a valuable guide for investors, providing practical examples of how to apply the principles of value investing in practice
  37. A B 1 Real Estate Investment Trust Realty Equities Corp. of New York 2 Air Products and Chemicals Air Reduction Co. 3 American Home Products Co American Hospital Supply Co. 4 H&R Block, Inc. Blue Bell, Inc. 5 International Flavors & Fragrances International Harvester Co. 6 McGraw Edison McGraw-Hill, Inc. 7 National General Corp. National Presto Industries 8 Whiting Corp. Willcox & Gibbs 18. A Comparison of Eight Pairs of Companies 36 By comparing the companies on multiple criteria, the author provides readers with a comprehensive analysis of the investment opportunities presented by each pair of companies. Bold - Better investment opportunity than other
  38. Dividend Policy 37 19. Shareholders and Managements : Higher growth potential Lower growth potential High payout ratio Lower payout ratio Companies with - Dividend payout ratio, which is the proportion of earnings paid out to shareholders as dividends. Graham suggests that investors should consider the dividend policy as part of their overall investment analysis. Advises investors to be cautious of companies that have a high dividend payout ratio but low earnings or unstable financials, as this may be an unsustainable dividend policy.
  39. Margin of safety is a principle of investing through which investors purchase securities only when their market price is below their intrinsic value. 38 20. "Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Investment Margin of Safety - Not JUST a Defensive Concept Emphasizes the importance of the margin of safety as a key principle of successful investing, and provides guidance on how to use this concept to identify undervalued stocks and minimize risk in investment.
  40. CONCLUSION It recommends companies with strong financials, a competitive advantage, and a reliable track record, as well as a margin of safety. It also emphasizes the importance of discipline, patience, and emotional control in the investment process, and that investors should stick to their investment strategy and avoid making impulsive decisions. The Intelligent Investor emphasizes that investment should be made with a long-term perspective and a focus on fundamental analysis. 1. 2. Overall, investing requires a rational and disciplined approach, with a focus on long-term value creation rather than short-term gains. 39
  41. THANKS! Any questions?
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