MNI China Business Sentiment October 2013


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MNI China Business Sentiment October 2013

  1. 1. London, 23 October 2013 MNI CHINA BUSINESS SENTIMENT EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.45 A.M. BEIJING TIME, 23 OCTOBER 2013 MNI China Business Indicator Rose to 55.3 in October from 51.8 in September Media Release Production Highest Since December 2012 The MNI China Business Indicator rose to 55.3 in October from 51.8 in September, the first monthly increase in two months. September’s fall to the lowest for a year followed a strong rise in August, and the October data indicated a return to stable growth. The future expectations indicator declined to 57.6 in October, the first fall in three months and the lowest since July, having risen to an eight month high in September. The largest monthly percentage gain in more than two and half years in October put Production at its highest level since December 2012, as the recent strengthening in New Orders fed through to output. Nine out of the thirteen indicators contained in the report for current conditions rose compared with the previous month, while eight were above the 50 breakeven level in October and five were below. The New Orders Indicator bounced back in October following the slowdown in September, leaving trend growth firm, while expectations rose strongly. Commenting on the data, MNI Indicators Chief Economist said, “The September data looked like a blip with overall business conditions picking back up to trend in October”. “The strong rise in New Orders seen in recent months appears to have preceded the pick-up in GDP growth in the third quarter. Questions have been raised over the sustainability of the latest GDP rise, but the October business survey data tentatively points to similar growth in the fourth quarter,” he added. - ENDS -
  2. 2. Page 2 For further information, please contact: Naomi Kim, Public Relations +1 212 669 6459 Arno Castanet, Marketing +44 (0)20 7862 7434 Editorial Content: Philip Uglow, Chief Economist, MNI Indicators Media Release Notes to Editors Please source all information to MNI Indicators. MNI China Business Sentiment is a monthly poll of Chinese business executives at companies listed on either the Shanghai or Shenzhen stock exchanges. Companies are a mix of manufacturing and service sector firms. With over five years of history, the survey tracks and predicts Chinese economic conditions and is an important leading indicator of GDP. Respondents are asked their opinion on whether a particular business activity has increased, decreased or remained the same compared with the previous month as well as their expectations for three months ahead, e.g. is Production higher/same/lower compared with a month ago? Diffusion indicators are then calculated by adding the percentage share of positive responses to half the percentage of those respondents reporting no change. An indicator reading above 50 shows expansion, below 50 indicates contraction and a result of 50 means no change. Data is collected through computer aided telephone interviews (CATI) and around 200 companies are surveyed each month. Series which show a seasonal pattern are seasonally adjusted using the US Census Bureau’s X12 seasonal adjustment program. Seasonal factors are calculated annually. About MNI Indicators MNI Indicators, part of Deutsche Börse Group, offers unique macro-economic data and insight to businesses and the investment community. We produce data and intelligence that is unbiased, pertinent and responsive. Our data moves markets. For more information, visit our website at MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group