23 October 2013
MNI CHINA BUSINESS SENTIMENT
EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.45 A.M. BEIJING TIME, 23 OCTOBER 2013
MNI China Business Indicator Rose to 55.3 in October
from 51.8 in September
Production Highest Since December 2012
The MNI China Business Indicator rose to 55.3 in October from 51.8 in September,
the first monthly increase in two months. September’s fall to the lowest for a year
followed a strong rise in August, and the October data indicated a return to stable
The future expectations indicator declined to 57.6 in October, the first fall in three
months and the lowest since July, having risen to an eight month high in September.
The largest monthly percentage gain in more than two and half years in October put
Production at its highest level since December 2012, as the recent strengthening in
New Orders fed through to output.
Nine out of the thirteen indicators contained in the report for current conditions rose
compared with the previous month, while eight were above the 50 breakeven level in
October and five were below.
The New Orders Indicator bounced back in October following the slowdown in
September, leaving trend growth firm, while expectations rose strongly.
Commenting on the data, MNI Indicators Chief Economist said, “The September data
looked like a blip with overall business conditions picking back up to trend in October”.
“The strong rise in New Orders seen in recent months appears to have preceded the
pick-up in GDP growth in the third quarter. Questions have been raised over the
sustainability of the latest GDP rise, but the October business survey data tentatively
points to similar growth in the fourth quarter,” he added.
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Chief Economist, MNI Indicators
Notes to Editors
Please source all information to MNI Indicators.
MNI China Business Sentiment is a monthly poll of Chinese business executives at
companies listed on either the Shanghai or Shenzhen stock exchanges. Companies
are a mix of manufacturing and service sector firms.
With over five years of history, the survey tracks and predicts Chinese economic
conditions and is an important leading indicator of GDP.
Respondents are asked their opinion on whether a particular business activity has
increased, decreased or remained the same compared with the previous month as
well as their expectations for three months ahead, e.g. is Production
higher/same/lower compared with a month ago?
Diffusion indicators are then calculated by adding the percentage share of positive
responses to half the percentage of those respondents reporting no change. An
indicator reading above 50 shows expansion, below 50 indicates contraction and a
result of 50 means no change.
Data is collected through computer aided telephone interviews (CATI) and around 200
companies are surveyed each month.
Series which show a seasonal pattern are seasonally adjusted using the US Census
Bureau’s X12 seasonal adjustment program. Seasonal factors are calculated
About MNI Indicators
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and insight to businesses and the investment community. We produce data and
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