23 September 2013
MNI CHINA BUSINESS SENTIMENT
EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.45 A.M. BEIJING TIME, 23 SEPTEMBER 2013
MNI China Business Indicator Fell to 51.8 in September
from 57.8 in August
Fall in New Orders Ends Five Month of Rises
The MNI China Business Indicator fell to 51.8 in September from a revised 22-month
high of 57.8 in August, the first month-on-month fall in two months and the lowest
reading since September 2012.
The September drop marked a setback in the indicator following signs that
businesses were looking more optimistic over the past two months. Looking at the
August and September outturns in aggregate, however, shows a picture of stable
growth but at a lower level than businesses have been accustomed to in the past.
The Production Indicator fell for the second consecutive month, falling to 51.4 in
September, the lowest since September 2012. Expectations for future production also
fell but remained higher than current conditions.
New Orders ended a five month run of monthly increases to post the lowest reading
since April, falling to 53.9 from 59.4 previously.
Employment conditions improved in September with the indicator posting its third
consecutive monthly increase to hit the highest level since April 2012.
Annual seasonal adjustment factors were recalculated in September and have led to
a number of revisions to past data.
Commenting on the latest survey, MNI Indicators Chief Economist Philip Uglow said,
“Following signs of a possible upturn in recent months the September results are
“Conditions continue to remain challenging for business. A pick up in New Orders in
the third quarter and evidence that the inventory run down is easing augurs well for
growth ahead, but it’s likely to be a bumpy road,” he added.
- ENDS -
MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group
For further information, please contact:
+1 212 669 6459
+44 (0)20 7862 7434
Chief Economist, MNI Indicators
Notes to Editors
Please source all information to MNI Indicators.
MNI China Business Sentiment is a monthly poll of Chinese business executives at
companies listed on either the Shanghai or Shenzhen stock exchanges. Companies
are a mix of manufacturing and service sector firms.
With over five years of history, the survey tracks and predicts Chinese economic
conditions and is an important leading indicator of GDP.
Respondents are asked their opinion on whether a particular business activity has
increased, decreased or remained the same compared with the previous month as
well as their expectations for three months ahead, e.g. is Production
higher/same/lower compared with a month ago?
Diffusion indicators are then calculated by adding the percentage share of positive
responses to half the percentage of those respondents reporting no change. An
indicator reading above 50 shows expansion, below 50 indicates contraction and a
result of 50 means no change.
Data is collected through computer aided telephone interviews (CATI) and around 200
companies are surveyed each month.
Series which show a seasonal pattern are seasonally adjusted using the US Census
Bureau’s X12 seasonal adjustment program. Seasonal factors are calculated
About MNI Indicators
MNI Indicators, part of Deutsche Börse Group, offers unique macro-economic data
and insight to businesses and the investment community. We produce data and
intelligence that is unbiased, pertinent and responsive. Our data moves markets.
For more information, visit our website at www.mni-indicators.com.