27 September 2013
MNI INDIA CONSUMER SENTIMENT
EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.45 A.M. NEW DELHI TIME, 27 SEPTEMBER 2013
MNI India Consumer Indicator Fell to a Record Low of
115.9 in September
Inflation Concerns Increase
The MNI India Consumer Indicator declined for the fourth consecutive month in
September, to the lowest level since the series started in November 2012 amid tepid
economic growth, the weakness in the rupee and continued high inflation.
The Consumer Indicator fell to 115.9 in September from 118.7 in August, nearly 9.0%
down since the start of the year. Sentiment has trended downwards since November
and has only posted monthly rises in two months, April and May.
The decline was led by a sharp fall in the percentage of consumers who felt it was a
good time to buy a large household item, likely due to the current economic
uncertainty India has been facing.
Four out of the five components of the Consumer Indicator fell in September, with
Current Personal Finances the only indicator to rise in September compared with last
Concerns over employment and inflation intensified with price expectations hitting a
Commenting on the latest survey, MNI Indicators Chief Economist Philip Uglow said,
“With growth weak, prices rising and worries over employment intensifying, it wasn’t
too surprising to see consumer sentiment hit a record low this month.”
“Some stabilisation in the economic environment could stem the decline, but
confidence is unlikely to increase significantly until growth picks up and inflation
eases,” he added.
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Notes to Editors
Please source all information to MNI Indicators.
The MNI India Consumer Sentiment Survey is a wide ranging monthly survey of
consumer confidence across India.
Data is collected via telephone interviews. At least 1,000 interviews are conducted
each month across the country.
The survey adopts a similar methodology to the University of Michigan survey of U.S.
The main MNI India Consumer Indicator is derived from five questions, two on current
conditions and three on future expectations:
1) Current personal financial situation compared to a year ago
2) Current willingness to buy major household items
3) Personal financial situation one year from now
4) Overall business conditions one year from now
5) Overall business conditions for the next 5 years
Indicators relating to specific questions in the report are diffusion indices with 100
representing a neutral level, meaning positive and negative answers are equal.
Values above 100 indicate increasing positivity while values below show increasing
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