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SCENARIO BASED ANALYSIS OF IPCC TRADE-OFFS
I NEILSEN, N TYSON
IPCC2013 CONFERENCE
14TH OCTOBER 2013
PRESENTER: NEIL TYSON,...
Deswik Are Answering Industry Demands For IPCC
Planning Software
Multiple presentations in recent years called for mine
p...
Presentation
Summary

More scenarios with greater detail
performed at the early stages of a
study will add value
Models ...
Better Planning Will Help IPCC Succeed
Turnbull & Cooper, 2010
“IPCC needs more planning efforts in the equipment selecti...
IPCC Study Roadmap

More Effort In Earlier Studies
Improving Outcomes By Learning From Iterations
 There is no big red button
 Too many degrees of freedom to reach an opti...
Increasing Detail Of Scenarios Is Valuable
 Find the critical point where high level assumptions meet
the reality of:
o P...
Scenario Construction

The goal is always to construct full-mine scenarios, to compare
apples with apples
Considerations & Goals Of Scenario Iterations
 Example global considerations
o Finding fatal flaws
o Eliminating fatal fl...
Considerations & Goals Of Scenario Iterations
Qualitative and quantitative
evaluation of the scenarios is
an important go...
Summary So Far:
 Construct mine plan scenarios comprising both IPCC and
conventional fleet in a single plan
 Calculate t...
Let’s Look At An Example:
 This is a fictional dataset
 Large OC coal mine, thermal / coking products for export
 A rec...
Pit Section
 D OB avg 28m (range 0.5-100m)  W OB avg 23m (range 0.5-65m)
 S OB avg 50m (range 0.5-90m)  K OB avg 55m (...
Pit Layout
 Current pit is approximately
10km long, 8 pit areas
serviced by 10 ramp
sections
 HW ramp arrangement for
D,...
Seam Sections
D SEAM
 D average depth of 55m up
to 100m
 Raw Ash averages 42%
(Range 24-49%)
 Washed Ash averages 16%
(...
Seam Sections
W SEAM
 W average depth of 110m
up to 220m
 Raw Ash averages 34%
(Range 25-42%)
 Washed Ash averages 12%
...
Preliminary Scenario List
First Pass Scenario Name

Details
Fully Mobile IPCC on Conv Bench2&3. Ramps 2 shv per
IPCC Fully...
Create T&S Scenario
 T&S case including landform & haulage model
 Includes full reserve set, aggregation, loss and
dilut...
Create T&S Scenario
IPCC and Conventional Fleet In 1 Model
 IPCC material allocation
 Eg FM IPCC: IPCC takes 2 x 45m horizons
 T&S removes ...
Schedule Hybrid Scenarios
 Production and dump schedules includes full
interaction between IPCC horizons and
conventional...
Schedule Hybrid Scenarios
 Production and dump schedules includes full
interaction between IPCC horizons and
conventional...
Undertake Analysis
 Assess conveyor
requirements
 Deswik Landform &
Haulage models and
reports every source, path
(conve...
Undertake Analysis
 Assess conventional fleet requirements
 What are the effect of different dumping strategies
on the T...
Undertake Analysis
 Assess capital, operating cost and revenue
differences between scenarios
Find Value Drivers & Value Traps
 Eg Value Trap: T&S – dump build progression is deemed
too steep for depth of pit – extr...
Find Value Drivers & Value Traps
 Eg Value Trap: Conveyor Cases – Dump design
maximises dump room near conveyor bridge. T...
Identify Fatal Flaws
 Eg Value Trap: FMIPCC Initial Scenario– Dumping
sequence fails towards the deeper parts of the depo...
Identify Fatal Flaws
Summarise Learnings From Scenarios
 What did we learn from the first iterations?
First Pass Scenario Name

Details
Fully ...
Iterate Using Learnings As Basis
First Pass Scenario Name

Second Pass Scenario Name

IPCC Fully Mobile 16Mtpa
9SHV MinRLM...
Map Value Across Scenarios – Other Analysis Options
 Iterate modified pit design suited to IPCC strengths and
deposit mat...
Thank You
 Thanks to our partners RWE for advice and guidance
 Questions?
Our future

Though Deswik is a relatively young company, our heritage of 20+
years of delivering mine planning software so...
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Deswik-IPCC2013 Presentation-Scenario based analysis of IPCC trade-offs

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This presentation was delivered by Deswik at the I-M Mining IPCC 2013 conference on 14th October 2013.
The presentation outlines a recommended approach for assessing the viability of In Pit Crushing and Conveying (IPCC) for mining operations. The key point is that modelling MUST include both the proposed system as well as other conventional fleet areas of the mine, modelled as a single system. This allows identification of system interactions and fatal flaws that are evident only in a combined mine plan model.
In previous years multiple presentations called for development of mine planning software that is capable of effective IPCC planning. Deswik commenced work in February 2013 on addressing this need, and have formed a partnership with industry experts RWE to ensure the result is fit for purpose. This presentation illustrates techniques that use the first results of this endeavour.

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Deswik-IPCC2013 Presentation-Scenario based analysis of IPCC trade-offs

  1. 1. SCENARIO BASED ANALYSIS OF IPCC TRADE-OFFS I NEILSEN, N TYSON IPCC2013 CONFERENCE 14TH OCTOBER 2013 PRESENTER: NEIL TYSON, BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT MANAGER
  2. 2. Deswik Are Answering Industry Demands For IPCC Planning Software Multiple presentations in recent years called for mine planning software that is capable of effective IPCC planning Deswik commenced work in February 2013 on addressing this need  Our approach includes forming a partnership with industry experts RWE to ensure the result is fit for purpose  This presentation illustrates techniques that use the first results of this endeavor
  3. 3. Presentation Summary More scenarios with greater detail performed at the early stages of a study will add value Models must include all aspects of the mining system – both IPCC and conventional Models must schedule dump construction and interactions between fleets and dumps Find the fatal flaws and value traps before detailed design & specification begins
  4. 4. Better Planning Will Help IPCC Succeed Turnbull & Cooper, 2010 “IPCC needs more planning efforts in the equipment selection, the mine development and the waste dump planning” Bearman & Munro, 2010 “It is believed that the ability to analyse IPCC to the same degree as the usual mining methods will provide a fuller picture of the total value proposition for IPCC and an improved idea of the true comparison against more traditional mining methods”  And many more… Take-Aways 1. Mine Development & Waste Dump Planning 2. Total Value Proposition Is The Key
  5. 5. IPCC Study Roadmap More Effort In Earlier Studies
  6. 6. Improving Outcomes By Learning From Iterations  There is no big red button  Too many degrees of freedom to reach an optimised solution in reasonable time using computational techniques  Learnings from initial scenarios inform further scenarios  Not a dartboard or drill pattern of scenarios – learning and adapting based on results  Act like a genetic algorithm for optimization: o Retain high performing components from scenarios o Test for variation across a range of starting conditions o Benchmark against a common metric – when a line of enquiry doesn’t perform, register the lesson and then move on
  7. 7. Increasing Detail Of Scenarios Is Valuable  Find the critical point where high level assumptions meet the reality of: o Pit design o Mine sequencing o Resource scheduling o And waste dump progression  Identify if and when the planned system fails o Operating sequences become unachievable o Spoil dump progression interrupts, preventing mining from progressing at full pace o Interactions cause unforeseen issues
  8. 8. Scenario Construction The goal is always to construct full-mine scenarios, to compare apples with apples
  9. 9. Considerations & Goals Of Scenario Iterations  Example global considerations o Finding fatal flaws o Eliminating fatal flaws o Optimising capital expenditure o Optimising life of mine operating costs o Capturing implications of all interactions between IPCC and conventional systems  Commodity Specific Consideration Examples o Hard Rock – inclusion of waste in pit-shell vs optimising conveyor cost and performance o Hard Rock – bench advance rates, pushback sizes o Coal – interaction between truck dump and conveyor dump
  10. 10. Considerations & Goals Of Scenario Iterations Qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the scenarios is an important goal: o How achievable is the scenario NPV? o Is the sequencing stable? o How responsive is the scenario to variation of input assumptions?
  11. 11. Summary So Far:  Construct mine plan scenarios comprising both IPCC and conventional fleet in a single plan  Calculate the Total Value Proposition  Build in detail, but replicate across entire LoM  Iterate scenarios o Learning from each new set of results o Discover how the planned systems interact – micro and macro o Qualitatively judge scenario ‘achievability’ o Zero in on value drivers, avoid value traps Identify which scenarios are worthy of detailed design & optimisation
  12. 12. Let’s Look At An Example:  This is a fictional dataset  Large OC coal mine, thermal / coking products for export  A recent acquisition, being reviewed for expansion potential  Currently 8 Mtpa, infrastructure sized for CAT793 fleet  Review 4 broad strategies o Shovel with fixed IPCC o Shovel with semi-mobile IPCC o Shovel with fully mobile IPCC o Ultra class T&S
  13. 13. Pit Section  D OB avg 28m (range 0.5-100m)  W OB avg 23m (range 0.5-65m)  S OB avg 50m (range 0.5-90m)  K OB avg 55m (range 14-85m) D SEAM S SEAM W SEAM K SEAM
  14. 14. Pit Layout  Current pit is approximately 10km long, 8 pit areas serviced by 10 ramp sections  HW ramp arrangement for D,S seams  LW ramp with bridge installed for K seam to W seam level
  15. 15. Seam Sections D SEAM  D average depth of 55m up to 100m  Raw Ash averages 42% (Range 24-49%)  Washed Ash averages 16% (Range 15-17%)  Yield averages 42% (Range 27-74%)  Thickness of 2.1m (max 2.7) S SEAM  S average depth of 91m up to 200m  Raw Ash averages 39% (Range 18-52%)  Washed Ash averages 17% (Range 16-18%)  Yield averages 56% (Range 26-92%)  Thickness of 3.1m (max 3.7)
  16. 16. Seam Sections W SEAM  W average depth of 110m up to 220m  Raw Ash averages 34% (Range 25-42%)  Washed Ash averages 12% (Range 9-15%)  Yield averages 56% (Range 43-66%)  Thickness of 2.9m (max 3.1) K SEAM  D average depth of 170m up to 270m  Raw Ash averages 35% (Range 27-42%)  Washed Ash averages 12% (Range 9-15%)  Yield averages 58% (Range 44-69%)  Thickness of 4.0m (max 4.4)
  17. 17. Preliminary Scenario List First Pass Scenario Name Details Fully Mobile IPCC on Conv Bench2&3. Ramps 2 shv per IPCC Fully Mobile 16Mtpa year until peak 8-9shv, 16Mpta. LHS run ramps closed, 9SHV MinRLMinDist MinRL Min Dist, no highwall ramp Fixed IPCC on Conv Bench2&3. Ramps 2 shv per year IPCC Fixed 16Mtpa 9SHV until peak 8-9shv, 16Mpta. LHS run ramps closed, MinRL MinRLMinDist Min Dist, no highwall ramp Semi Mobile IPCC on Conv Bench1,2&3. Ramps 2 shv per IPCC Semi Mobile 16Mtpa year until peak 8-9shv, 16Mpta. LHS run ramps closed, 9SHV MinRLMinDist MinRL Min Dist, no highwall ramp T&S scenario. Ramps 2 shv per year until peak 8-9shv, 16Mpta. LHS run ramps closed, MinRL Min Dist, no TS 16Mtpa 9SHV MinRLMinDist highwall ramp, 20deg dump T&S scenario. Ramps 2 shv per year until peak 8-9shv, 16Mpta. LHS run ramps closed, MinDist Min Cycle Time, TS 16Mtpa 9SHV MinDistMinCT no highwall ram, 20 deg dump
  18. 18. Create T&S Scenario  T&S case including landform & haulage model  Includes full reserve set, aggregation, loss and dilution calculations, through to ROM and Product tonnages and revenues  Detailed sequencing at the block level  Full landform & haulage model determining detailed truck haulage requirements and costs over time  Financial model to calculate NPV
  19. 19. Create T&S Scenario
  20. 20. IPCC and Conventional Fleet In 1 Model  IPCC material allocation  Eg FM IPCC: IPCC takes 2 x 45m horizons  T&S removes all other coal and waste, above and below these horizons
  21. 21. Schedule Hybrid Scenarios  Production and dump schedules includes full interaction between IPCC horizons and conventional T&S horizons
  22. 22. Schedule Hybrid Scenarios  Production and dump schedules includes full interaction between IPCC horizons and conventional T&S horizons
  23. 23. Undertake Analysis  Assess conveyor requirements  Deswik Landform & Haulage models and reports every source, path (conveyor or haul) and destination, as well as different path detailed metrics
  24. 24. Undertake Analysis  Assess conventional fleet requirements  What are the effect of different dumping strategies on the T&S cases? Base Case Dump Strategy Comparison 400000 350000 350000 300000 300000 250000 250000 200000 200000 150000 150000 100000 100000 50000 50000 Total Coal Product Tonnes MinDistMinCTMajor Truck Shovel Truck Hours 1/01/2046 1/01/2045 1/01/2044 1/01/2043 1/01/2042 1/01/2041 1/01/2040 1/01/2039 1/01/2038 1/01/2037 1/01/2036 1/01/2035 1/01/2034 1/01/2033 1/01/2032 1/01/2031 1/01/2030 1/01/2029 1/01/2028 1/01/2027 1/01/2026 1/01/2025 1/01/2024 1/01/2023 1/01/2022 1/01/2021 1/01/2020 0 1/01/2019 0 MinRLMinDistMajor Truck Shovel Truck Hours Coal Product Tonnes 450000 400000 Truck Hours 450000
  25. 25. Undertake Analysis  Assess capital, operating cost and revenue differences between scenarios
  26. 26. Find Value Drivers & Value Traps  Eg Value Trap: T&S – dump build progression is deemed too steep for depth of pit – extra layback will be required for access ramps and other dump build considerations
  27. 27. Find Value Drivers & Value Traps  Eg Value Trap: Conveyor Cases – Dump design maximises dump room near conveyor bridge. This in turn requires a steep conveyor change in direction, which will greatly degrade system performance
  28. 28. Identify Fatal Flaws  Eg Value Trap: FMIPCC Initial Scenario– Dumping sequence fails towards the deeper parts of the deposit. o When the waste allocation changes proportion, the stripping sequence no longer releases enough dump room each strip o The IPCC spreaders ‘catch’ the advancing dump face o 100Mbcm ‘overflows’. o The systems are mismatched, and adjustments are required
  29. 29. Identify Fatal Flaws
  30. 30. Summarise Learnings From Scenarios  What did we learn from the first iterations? First Pass Scenario Name Details Fully Mobile IPCC on Conv Bench2&3. Ramps 2 shv per IPCC Fully Mobile 16Mtpa year until peak 8-9shv, 16Mpta. LHS run ramps closed, 9SHV MinRLMinDist MinRL Min Dist, no highwall ramp Fixed IPCC on Conv Bench2&3. Ramps 2 shv per year IPCC Fixed 16Mtpa 9SHV until peak 8-9shv, 16Mpta. LHS run ramps closed, MinRL MinRLMinDist Min Dist, no highwall ramp Semi Mobile IPCC on Conv Bench1,2&3. Ramps 2 shv per IPCC Semi Mobile 16Mtpa year until peak 8-9shv, 16Mpta. LHS run ramps closed, 9SHV MinRLMinDist MinRL Min Dist, no highwall ramp T&S scenario. Ramps 2 shv per year until peak 8-9shv, 16Mpta. LHS run ramps closed, MinRL Min Dist, no TS 16Mtpa 9SHV MinRLMinDist highwall ramp, 20deg dump T&S scenario. Ramps 2 shv per year until peak 8-9shv, 16Mpta. LHS run ramps closed, MinDist Min Cycle Time, TS 16Mtpa 9SHV MinDistMinCT no highwall ram, 20 deg dump Fatal Flaw? NPV (AU$M) N n/a  460  607 N 604 N 793
  31. 31. Iterate Using Learnings As Basis First Pass Scenario Name Second Pass Scenario Name IPCC Fully Mobile 16Mtpa 9SHV MinRLMinDist IPCC Fully Mobile 16Mtpa 9SHV MinRLMinDist Mod Dumps IPCC Fixed 16Mtpa 9SHV MinRLMinDist IPCC Semi Mobile 16Mtpa 9SHV MinRLMinDist IPCC Semi Mobile 16Mtpa 9SHV MinRLMinDist ModSched TS 16Mtpa 9SHV MinRLMinDist TS 16Mtpa 9SHV MinDistMinCT TS 16Mtpa 9SHV MinRLMinDist TS 16Mtpa 9SHV MinDistMinCT Centre Ramps Details Fully Mobile IPCC on Conv Bench2&3. Ramps 2 shv per year until peak 8-9shv, 16Mpta. LHS run ramps closed, MinRL Min Dist, no highwall ramp Fully Mobile IPCC on Conv Bench2&3. Ramps 2 shv per year until peak 8-9shv, 16Mpta. LHS run ramps closed, MinRL Min Dist, no highwall ramp, modified dump design Fixed IPCC on Conv Bench2&3. Ramps 2 shv per year until peak 8-9shv, 16Mpta. LHS run ramps closed, MinRL Min Dist, no highwall ramp Semi Mobile IPCC on Conv Bench1,2&3. Ramps 2 shv per year until peak 8-9shv, 16Mpta. LHS run ramps closed, MinRL Min Dist, no highwall ramp Semi Mobile IPCC on Conv Bench1,2&3. Ramps 2 shv per year until peak 8-9shv, 16Mpta. LHS run ramps closed, MinDist Min CT, no highwall ramp, mod schedule T&S scenario. Ramps 2 shv per year until peak 8-9shv, 16Mpta. LHS run ramps closed, MinRL Min Dist, no highwall ramp, 20deg dump T&S scenario. Ramps 2 shv per year until peak 8-9shv, 16Mpta. LHS run ramps closed, MinDist Min Cycle Time, no highwall ram, 20 deg dump T&S scenario. Ramps 2 shv per year until peak 8-9shv, 16Mpta. LHS run centre ramps open, MinRL Min Dist, no highwall ramp, 17 deg dump T&S scenario. Ramps 2 shv per year until peak 8-9shv, 16Mpta. LHS run centre ramps open, MinDist Min Cycle time, no highwall ramp, 17 deg dump Fatal Flaw? NPV (AU$M) N n/a  598  460  607  750 N 604 N 793  651  872
  32. 32. Map Value Across Scenarios – Other Analysis Options  Iterate modified pit design suited to IPCC strengths and deposit material balance e.g. change direction of mining, mine along strike  Re-iterate Lerchs-Grossman or pit margin ranks o Write actual costs from schedule back onto reserve block solids o Re-calculate margin rank, &/ or re-run solids-based LG  Examine sensitivity of scenarios to truck, conveyor, sequencing performance o How vulnerable is the scenario to changes in inputs? o Cost + overall scenario breakdown
  33. 33. Thank You  Thanks to our partners RWE for advice and guidance  Questions?
  34. 34. Our future Though Deswik is a relatively young company, our heritage of 20+ years of delivering mine planning software solutions means that we have come a long way in a short period of time. And We Have Only Just Begun Our culture of high performance and innovation will ensure we remain a formidable force in the industry for a long time to come.

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