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The Next Era: a new Nordic Societal Vision for Well-Being

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A presentation by Aleksi Neuvonen on post-industrial transformation and the next era of well-being, based on work conducted by Demos Helsinki and the Finnish innovation fund Sitra. Held in Vision Europe Summit on Nov 15th 2017 in Turin, Italy. Based on The Next Era reports
- From Pause to Play (https://www.sitra.fi/en/publications/from-pause-to-play/)
- From the trials of democracy towards future participation (https://www.sitra.fi/en/publications/trials-democracy-towards-future-participation/#introduction)
- Rewiring Progress (https://www.sitra.fi/en/publications/rewiring-progress/)

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The Next Era: a new Nordic Societal Vision for Well-Being

  1. 1. The Next Era: a new Nordic Societal Vision for Well-Being Winners and Losers of Globalisation Vision Europe Summit Turin, Nov 15th 2017 Aleksi Neuvonen Demos Helsinki aleksi.neuvonen@demoshelsinki.fi @leksis
  2. 2. ’The period from the mid-nineteenth century to 1970 was one in which the working class benefited from the growth in productivity. Incomes became more equal. This is the economic performance that many have come to regard as normal.' 'Most discussions in the West focus on how technological evolution in the West affects jobs in the West. This frame is too narrow for the twenty-first century: we must investigate the effect of technological change on work everywhere. For the past three centuries, the global economy has been sufficiently integrated that new technology in one place affects work in others.’
  3. 3. GIN LANE
  4. 4. BACK TO GREAT VS TECHNO-OPTIMISM
  5. 5. Have we lost the hope?
  6. 6. www.nextera.global #NextEraGlobal
  7. 7. NextEra.global memorandums
  8. 8. GROWTH - WORK  -  DEMOCRACY -  WELLBEING  
  9. 9. THE PROMISE OF THE 20TH CENTURY COMPANIES PEOPLESTATE WELFARE W ORK GROW TH W AGES LABOUR TAXESSOCIAL SECURITY TAXES INVESTM ENTS (education,infra)
  10. 10. COMPANIES STATE PEOPLE
  11. 11. Annual growth of GDP in developed countries after 2008-2009 financial crash nextera.global
  12. 12. Annual growth of GDP in developed countries after 2008-2009 financial crash nextera.global U N I T E D K I N G D O M 
 1% max.
  13. 13. F I N L A N D 
 -0,5–1% Annual growth of GDP in developed countries after 2008-2009 financial crash nextera.global U N I T E D K I N G D O M 
 1% max.
  14. 14. F I N L A N D 
 -0,5–1% D E N M A R K 
 -1,5–1,5% Annual growth of GDP in developed countries after 2008-2009 financial crash nextera.global U N I T E D K I N G D O M 
 1% max.
  15. 15. F I N L A N D 
 -0,5–1% D E N M A R K 
 -1,5–1,5% G E R M A N Y 
 <2% Annual growth of GDP in developed countries after 2008-2009 financial crash nextera.global U N I T E D K I N G D O M 
 1% max.
  16. 16. F I N L A N D 
 -0,5–1% D E N M A R K 
 -1,5–1,5% G E R M A N Y 
 <2% Annual growth of GDP in developed countries after 2008-2009 financial crash nextera.global U N I T E D K I N G D O M 
 1% max. N E T H E R L A N D S 
 -0,5–1%
  17. 17. F I N L A N D 
 -0,5–1% D E N M A R K 
 -1,5–1,5% G E R M A N Y 
 <2% Annual growth of GDP in developed countries after 2008-2009 financial crash nextera.global U N I T E D K I N G D O M 
 1% max. C Z E C H R E P U B L I C 
 -0,5–1,5% N E T H E R L A N D S 
 -0,5–1%
  18. 18. F I N L A N D 
 -0,5–1% D E N M A R K 
 -1,5–1,5% G E R M A N Y 
 <2% Annual growth of GDP in developed countries after 2008-2009 financial crash nextera.global U N I T E D K I N G D O M 
 1% max. C Z E C H R E P U B L I C 
 -0,5–1,5% J A PA N 
 -1,5–1,5%N E T H E R L A N D S 
 -0,5–1%
  19. 19. F I N L A N D 
 -0,5–1% D E N M A R K 
 -1,5–1,5% U S A 4–5% G E R M A N Y 
 <2% Annual growth of GDP in developed countries after 2008-2009 financial crash nextera.global U N I T E D K I N G D O M 
 1% max. C Z E C H R E P U B L I C 
 -0,5–1,5% J A PA N 
 -1,5–1,5%N E T H E R L A N D S 
 -0,5–1%
  20. 20. 1. Ageing population
  21. 21. 1. Ageing population
  22. 22. 2. Technological 
 deflation
  23. 23. 2. Technological 
 deflation
  24. 24. 3. Declining regions
  25. 25. 3. Declining regions
  26. 26. 4. Need to limit use of the most polluting resources
  27. 27. 4. Need to limit use of the most polluting resources
  28. 28. 1. Ageing population 2. Technological deflation 3. Declining industrial regions 4. Need to limit most polluting resources
  29. 29. THE ERA OF TECHNOLOGICAL  UNEMPLOYMENT?
  30. 30. THE ERA OF TECHNOLOGICAL  UNEMPLOYMENT? World Economic Forum 5m 
 JOBS lost across 15 developed nations by 2020 137m
 WORKERS across Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam 
 at risk from automization International Labor Organisation
  31. 31. Globalisation: Does democracy work in the middle of structural changes in the economy?
  32. 32. Globalisation: Does democracy work in the middle of structural changes in the economy? Ecological sustainability: Earth has become a small planet for a very big human population How do we solve the burning issues of scarce common natural resources?
  33. 33. Globalisation: Does democracy work in the middle of structural changes in the economy? Ecological sustainability: Earth has become a small planet for a very big human population How do we solve the burning issues of scarce common natural resources? Technology: Our democracies are tuned for the world of the 20th century. Are we even asking the right questions?
  34. 34. 'The need for educated workers led to the expansion of state provision of education. The increasing number of educated people prompted the invention of technologies that took advantage of education8. Those technologies led to further demand for education. At the same time, the public provision of infrastructure — roads and airports, for instance — was crucial for the development of industries involving cars and aircraft. Public support for research in medicine, agriculture and technologies with military applications, such as electronics and aircraft, underlaid many advances. The welfare state helped to spread the benefits of this economic development across the population.’ Robert C. Allen: ”Lessons from history for the future of work”, Nature 18 October 2017
  35. 35. Industrial revolution gave rise to most of the structures that shape our current societies.
  36. 36. • SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEMS • WELFARE STATE • PRIMARY EDUCATION SYSTEM • URBAN PLANNING • TRADE UNIONS • REPRESENTATIVE DEMOCRACY
  37. 37. 1790 18401830182018101800 2005 20552045203520252015
  38. 38. 1790 18401830182018101800 2005 20552045203520252015 Can we speed up the transformation towards the next era of wellbeing?
  39. 39. 2017
 BASIC INCOME EXPERIMENT 20?? “NEXT ERA  SOCIAL CONTRACT” [EXPERIMENTS + FRAMEWORKS + POLICIES NEEDED]
  40. 40. What if… Basic income covers a large share of your living costs? Healthcare turns preventive and cheap due to technology? Sharing platforms enable cash-free lifestyles? Our pensions are collaborative and mutual? We go through a university level training seven times in our lifetime? Peer learning takes off massively? Access to artificial intelligences becomes a citizen right?
  41. 41. The Next Era Societal Vision for Well-Being
  42. 42. The VES network foresight workshop, Helsinki June 21-22. 2017
  43. 43. What is particularly valuable in the (future) Nordic model? (according to VES network participants) "Social justice, environnemental values and human rights” ”The principles of inclusiveness and equality” ”Combining economic growth with a relatively equal distribution of net income” ”Low levels of hierarchies”
  44. 44. ”GETTING TO DENMARK”
  45. 45. ”GETTING TO DENMARK”
  46. 46. VISION FOR NEXT ERA OF WELLBEING? It should (in a sober manner) accept planetary boundaries, broad international collaboration and technological development as core beliefs. Would focus policies on • inclusive circular economy, • progressive of democracy and (both public and private) institutions, and • improving level of skills and capabilities. Could make citizen to feel that • New forms of work and income provide opportunities for them, • They are being heard and are motivated to dialogue and collaboration w/ others • They can and should learn and grow as humans throughout their lives.
  47. 47. www.nextera.global #NextEra #NextEraTokyo

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