DW The next 2-3 years MoMoWales

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Talk given by David Wood to the inaugural MoMoWales event, in Cardiff, 13th May 2013: Anticipating the decisive trends in mobile technology, product and user expectations in the next 2 - 3 years

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DW The next 2-3 years MoMoWales

  1. 1. 1Delta Wisdom LtdAnticipating the decisive trendsin mobile technology, product and user expectationsin the next 2 - 3 yearsDavid Wood, Catalyst & Futurist, Delta Wisdom, @dw2http://dw2blog.com/Chair, London Futurists, www.meetup.com/London-FuturistsIntelligence for profound changeTechnology for Humanity+Slideshare.NET / DeltaWisdom
  2. 2. 2Delta Wisdom LtdIt’s hard to predict the futureSource: Newsweek, January 2011
  3. 3. 3Delta Wisdom LtdNewspaper ad revenuehttp://mjperry.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/freefall-adjusted-for-inflation-print.html?
  4. 4. 4Delta Wisdom LtdCollapse of newspaper ad revenuehttp://mjperry.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/freefall-adjusted-for-inflation-print.html
  5. 5. 5Delta Wisdom LtdA world of converging technologyAreimpacted &transformed
  6. 6. 6Delta Wisdom LtdCollisions and collapseshttp://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/hmv-collapse-live-blog-follow-1534816
  7. 7. 7Delta Wisdom LtdCollisions and collapseshttp://www.digitaltrends.com/home-theater/blockbuster-uk-administration/
  8. 8. 8Delta Wisdom LtdKindle books vs. physical bookswww.theverge.com/2012/9/6/3298533/amazon-kindle-event-september-6th-video-watchE-books leapfrogphysical books at Amazon1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  9. 9. 9Delta Wisdom LtdA world of converging technologyAreimpacted &enhanced
  10. 10. 10Delta Wisdom LtdA world of converging technologyAre impacted& transformedAre impacted& enhanced?See the steamrollers comingBe agile and strong enoughto turn the steamroller toyour advantage
  11. 11. 11Delta Wisdom LtdPredicting tablet computers?27 January, 2010“8 Things That Suck About the iPad”http://gizmodo.com/5458382/8-things-that-suck-about-the-ipad1. Big, Ugly Bezel2. No Multitasking3. No Cameras4. Touch Keyboard5. No HDMI Out6. The Name “iPad”7. No Flash8. Adapters, Adapters, Adapters(“…You need an adapter for USB for god’s sake”)9. It’s Not Widescreen10. Doesn’t Support T-Mobile 3G(“it uses microSIMs that literally no one else uses”)11. A Closed App Ecosystem.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/iPadhttp://dw2blog.com/2010/01/28/the-ipad-more-for-less/
  12. 12. 12Delta Wisdom LtdThe reality of tablet computersApple Now Most Valuable Company in History 23 October, 2012“Apple sold their 100 millionthiPad two weeks ago”“We sold more iPads in the Junequarter than any PC maker sold oftheir entire line-up”Market-cap > $620 billion>4 years to sell 100M iPhones<3 years to sell 100M iPadswww.engadget.com/2012/10/23/apple-ipad-mini-liveblog/www.forbes.com/sites/benzingainsights/2012/08/21/apple-now-most-valuable-company-in-history/
  13. 13. 13Delta Wisdom LtdPredicting tablet computers?http://joyreactor.com/post/300138Bill Gates introduces Tablet PC.No one cares.Steve Jobs introduces the iPad.The world pisses itself like anexcited dog.Steve Ballmer introduces Surface.People accuse them of stealingthe idea from Apple.
  14. 14. 14Delta Wisdom LtdPredicting the impact of technology“Books will soon be obsolete in schools”“It is possible to teach every branch of humanknowledge with the motion picture”“Our school system will be completely changedinside of ten years”July 1913, The New York Dramatic MirrorThomas Alva Edisonhttp://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/02/15/books-obsolete/http://edison.rutgers.edu/taephren.htm
  15. 15. 15Delta Wisdom Ltd“Our school system will be completely changedinside of ten years”Book: The One World Schoolhouse: Education Reimagined by Salman Khan• First YouTube video uploaded: 2006• Year founded: 2008• Videos: ~4070• Videos watched: 250M+• Unique visitors in March 2013: 5.3M• Exercises completed: 1B+ (>2M per day)• Number of employees: 38A not-for-profit with the goal of…providing a free world-class educationfor anyone anywherehttps://www.khanacademy.org/aboutPredicting the impact of technology
  16. 16. 16Delta Wisdom LtdProgress by combination• Technologies enabling You Tube explosion– Proliferation of Internet users– Fast Internet access (wifi, broadband, 3G+)– Ubiquitous cameras (including in smartphones)– Easy-to-use video editing tools– Cheap storage and fast processingMichell Zappa: http://envisioningtech.com/• Over 1 billion unique users visit YouTube each month• Over 4 billion hours of video watched each month• People watch one billion views a day on YouTube mobile• 72 hours of video are uploaded to YouTube every minute• In 2011, YouTube had more than 1 trillion views– or around 140 views for every person on Earthwww.youtube.com/t/press_statistics
  17. 17. 17Delta Wisdom LtdProgress by combination• Technologies enabling Kindle explosion– Cheap storage– Low energy screens– High-speed “Whisper net” wireless distribution– Huge catalog of books available to purchaseMichell Zappa: http://envisioningtech.com/+ Innovative business model
  18. 18. 18Delta Wisdom LtdGeoffrey Moore’s LawLaggards,scepticsCustomers wanttechnology andfeaturesCustomers wantcomplete solutions, reliability,and convenienceEarlyadopters,visionariesInnovators,technologyenthusiastsTHECHASMEarlymajorityLatemajorityCan accept poorusabilityWon’t accept poorusabilityReady to walk asolitary pathRequires socialvalidation
  19. 19. 19Delta Wisdom LtdUnexpected leadershipPurchased by Facebook in April 2012With 13 employeesAnd 100 million registered usersFor approx $1 billion in cash and stockLaunched in October 2010SociableUsableIntegrative
  20. 20. 20Delta Wisdom LtdPredicting convergence (1998)
  21. 21. 21Delta Wisdom Ltd• Increasingly affordable, increasingly smart mobile phones• More CPU, more data, more network bandwidth, lower cost• Converging & delivering more and more utility, usably• Colour, Cameras, Rich Messaging, Browsing, Social Networks, Games,Maps, Augmented Reality, Buying & Selling• Used by more and more people, worldwide• Generating more and more business• And disrupting more and more business (winners and losers)Convergence in the last decade2000-2010-…“Smartphones for all”
  22. 22. 22Delta Wisdom LtdA disruptive new wave of convergenceof embedded software“Smartphone technology everywhere”Convergence in this decade2000-2010-…“Smartphones for all”2011-2015...2000-2010-…“Smartphones for all”
  23. 23. 23Delta Wisdom LtdTechnology whose improvement has been driven bythe smartphone revolution…Roaming, multiplekinds of networksWirelesscommunicationsData storage –local and on thesecure cloudStreaming wirelessmultimediaGraphics display –small, intuitive UIApplications:DynamicreprogrammingSensors:GPS, motion, etcMobile InternetLow power…combined together, with domain-specific technology,in new and interesting ways...Smartphone technology embedded everywhere
  24. 24. 24Delta Wisdom Ltd“Feature phones” / “Touch phones” / “Super phones”Tablets / SlatesSmart, connected carsIn Vehicle Infotainment (IVI)Consumer electronics:cameras, eReaders, toys...Industrial automation(smart connected robots)Mobile medical devicesWearable computers:uniforms, watches, spectaclesConnected homes:Smart TVs, Heating, SecuritySmart digital signsSmart meters and gridsSmart micro-bots(and nano-bots…)Your suggestions here!Smartphone technology embedded everywhere
  25. 25. 25Delta Wisdom LtdThe connected home(?)Anotherginger beer,please HalI’m sorry David,I can’t do thatThe bathroom scaleand the hall mirrorare reportingdisturbing flabanomalies…Based on a cartoon by Jeff MacNelly
  26. 26. 26Delta Wisdom LtdThe connected hotel• The Aloft Hotel (in Thailand) is set up so that a smartphone is access key for lift & room– Instead of a key-card, a Samsung Galaxy S2 provided to guests on check-in– Conveniently has a local SIM (for reduced cost lower data roaming)• It doubles as a remote control for TV and “mood music”• It also controls the rooms lighting, the curtains, thermostat, and the “do not disturb sign”• The phone contains apps for ordering room service, concierge advice, etc• Uses NFC and other wireless comms (Bluetooth & WiFi)Technology is provided by Fingi – http://www.fingi.com/index.phpBBC Click video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JWqlDgbEmKw
  27. 27. 27Delta Wisdom Ltdhttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2226545/Nicole-Scherzinger-makes-technology-sexy-wows-UKs-Twitter-dress-4G-launch.htmlWearable computing:Clothing with built-in LCDs“Twitterdress”
  28. 28. 28Delta Wisdom Ltd“Basis” health-monitoring watch• 3D Accelerometer – detects even the smallest movement• Optical Blood Flow Sensor – detects heart rate• Body Temperature Monitor – skin surface temperature• Ambient Temp Monitor – boost accuracy of caloric calculations• Galvanic Skin Response – the intensity of skin’s moisture outputwww.dcrainmaker.com/2011/11/walking-down-street-where-blue-dot-on.htmlwww.mybasis.com
  29. 29. 29Delta Wisdom LtdSmart belt improves your posturehttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324235104578241801065110288.html“We watch your back”“The LUMOback sensor sends gentle vibrationswhen you slouch backwards with your lowerback, reminding you to sit or stand up straight”“Using the latest BT technology,LUMOback tracks your movementswirelessly and gives you feedbackthrough an iPhone, iPod, or iPad app”
  30. 30. 30Delta Wisdom Ltd• Miniature sensors• Imaging & scanning• 3D manufacturing• Personalised genomics• Synthetic biology• Electronic medical records• Ubiquitous smartphones• Communications facilities• Next gen social networks• Huge computing power• Expert decision systems• Online medical traininghttp://CreativeDestructionOfMedicine.com/“Technology super-convergence”http://atlanticmeetspacific.wordpress.com/2013/03/07/eric-topol-at-the-altantic-meets-the-pacific/Eric Topol MDRadically improving healthcare
  31. 31. 31Delta Wisdom LtdRadically improving healthcare“The best solution is to get rid of doctors andteachers and let your computers do the work,24/7 and with consistent quality”“Machines will replace 80 percent of doctors”Vinod KhoslaSun Microsystems co-founderrenowned Silicon Valley investor“Do We Need Doctors Or Algorithms?”http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2012-09/04/doctors-replaced-with-machineshttp://techcrunch.com/2012/01/10/doctors-or-algorithms/
  32. 32. 32Delta Wisdom Ltdhttp://dilbert.com/strips/comic/2011-12-16/Technological unemployment?
  33. 33. 33Delta Wisdom Ltdhttp://singularityhub.com/2013/04/19/chinese-restaurant-owner-says-robot-noodle-maker-doing-a-good-job/Technological unemployment?Chinese Restaurant owner says robot noodle maker doing “a good job!”
  34. 34. 34Delta Wisdom Ltdhttp://www.acceleratingfuture.com/michael/blog/2007/07/top-10-transhumanist-technologies/Technological unemployment?
  35. 35. 35Delta Wisdom LtdInformation in our glasseswww.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/06/sergey-brin-google-glasses_n_1408488.html
  36. 36. 36Delta Wisdom Ltd“Feature phones” / “Touch phones” / “Super phones”Tablets / SlatesSmart, connected carsIn Vehicle Infotainment (IVI)Consumer electronics:cameras, eReaders, toys...Industrial automation(smart connected robots)Mobile medical devicesWearable computers:uniforms, watches, spectaclesConnected homes:Smart TVs, Heating, SecuritySmart digital signsSmart meters and gridsSmart micro-bots(and nano-bots…)Your suggestions here!Smartphone technology embedded everywhereNone of thisis inevitableBut also powerfuldecelerator forces inhibitingthese productsThe eventual winners andlosers may be differentfrom whom we expectThere are powerfulaccelerator forces supportingthese new productsComplexity Poor usability Antagonistic value chain Security/privacy issues Regulations
  37. 37. 37Delta Wisdom LtdForecast: Nine trends that matter1. Acceleration of technology change– Greater need for speed2. Convergence and disruption of industries– Inherently hard to predict: greater need for agility3. Increasing importance of design– Users expect help and charm in navigating great complexity4. Increasing importance of software:– Numerous apps and the underlying enabling functionality5. Increasing importance of integration– Pulling everything together, reliably & quickly6. Increasing importance of platforms– Ready-made re-usable starting points for integration and growth7. Increasing importance of automation– Using tools and software to do hard processes better8. The potential greatadvantage of scale –providing you dealwith the complexity9. Increasing importanceof skills in collaborationand partnershipweb cloud security
  38. 38. 38Delta Wisdom LtdAnticipating the decisive trendsin mobile technology, product and user expectationsin the next 2 - 3 yearsDavid Wood, Catalyst & Futurist, Delta Wisdom, @dw2http://dw2blog.com/Chair, London Futurists, www.meetup.com/London-FuturistsIntelligence for profound changeTechnology for Humanity+Slideshare.NET / DeltaWisdom

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