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Dennis Meißner1, Benedikt Sommer2, Silke Rademacher1, Oliver Bucholz2 
1 Federal Institute of Hydrology, Koblenz 
2 Hydrot...
The German waterway network 
German waterways are an integral part of the „wet“ Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) c...
Inland waterways (~ 7,300 km) 
Seaways (~17,800 km²) 
The German waterway network 
(German Federal Ministry of Transport a...
Inland waterways (~ 7,300 km) 
Seaways (~17,800 km²) 
The German waterway network 
free-flowing rivers (~ 30 %) impounded ...
Hydrological impacts on inland waterways 
Navigation on inland waterways is limited due to: 
• floods (relevant for all ri...
Hydrological impacts on inland waterways 
Restriction of inland waterway transport (IWT) due to … 
… river ice … high / lo...
Forecasting at BfG 
Development & maintenance of operational forecasting systems for the German waterways (“WAVOS”) 
… r...
BfG‘s operational forecasting systems 
Flood Forecasting 
Centre Main (Bavaria) 
Flood and daily Forecast Main 
Flood Fore...
Delft-FEWS as a main forecast component 
2006 Installation of „Delft-FEWS Rhine“ at BfG 2008 Integration of Delft-FEWS in ...
2006 Installation of „Delft-FEWS Rhine“ at BfG 
2008 Integration of Delft-FEWS in operational forecasting procedure (Rhine...
Extension to all German river basins 
Coverage of all basins realted the inland waterways 
Domain of FEWS-BfG 2006 – 2013...
Extension to all German river basins 
Implementation of additional meteorological and hydrological stations 
Import of a...
Producing reports with Delft-FEWS 
Requirements of general content: 
Information about timeliness of meteorological for...
Report „Hydrometeorology for waterways“ 
Replacement / enhancements of an existing BfG-instrument to prepare meteorologic...
Report „Hydrometeorology for waterways“
Extended support for Flood Forecasting Center Rhine 
Synopsis of various deterministic flow forecasts and the COSMO-LEPS...
Probabilistic water-level forecasts Rhine 
Probability that water-levels will exceed or fall below of threshold values re...
Additional modules to forecast ice formation ( canals)  replacement of BfG‘s former forecast system  recipient: all wat...
Additional modules to forecast ice formation (for canals)  replacement of BfG‘s former forecast system  recipient: all ...
PDF-export early ice warning Mosel/Saar 
Additional modules to estimate potential ice formation (for impounded rivers)  ...
FEWS in the context of R&D activities 
Linking of in-house developed modules with Delft-FEWS (ensemble calibration, proba...
Linking of in-house developed modules with Delft-FEWS (example multivariate BMA) 
End of COSMO-LEPS 
End of MER, GME 
FEW...
Conclusions and next steps 
From the beginning on FEWS (for the Rhine) has been an important tool within BfG‘s forecast e...
Thank you for your attention ! 
Dennis Meißner Department Water Balance, Forecasting and Predictions Bundesanstalt für Gew...
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DSD-INT 2014 - Delft-FEWS Users Meeting - FEWS as a main component of BfG's forecasting services for the German Waterways, Dennis Meissner, Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde

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Delft-FEWS Users Meeting

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DSD-INT 2014 - Delft-FEWS Users Meeting - FEWS as a main component of BfG's forecasting services for the German Waterways, Dennis Meissner, Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde

  1. 1. Dennis Meißner1, Benedikt Sommer2, Silke Rademacher1, Oliver Bucholz2 1 Federal Institute of Hydrology, Koblenz 2 Hydrotec Ingenieurgesellschaft für Wasser und Umwelt mbH, Aachen Delft-FEWS User Days Delft, 29 & 30 October 2014 FEWS as a main component of BfG's forecasting services for the German Waterways
  2. 2. The German waterway network German waterways are an integral part of the „wet“ Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) connecting North Sea, the Baltic and the Black Sea (German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure, Fachstelle für Geoinformation Süd)
  3. 3. Inland waterways (~ 7,300 km) Seaways (~17,800 km²) The German waterway network (German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure, Fachstelle für Geoinformation Süd) approximately 240 million tons / year are transported along the German waterways 70 % of the German waterways are of international relevance The River Rhine is one of the most frequented inland waterways in the world. There‘s a need to use the free capacity of inland waterways more consequently in reaction to the continuing transport growth economically and ecological sustainably.
  4. 4. Inland waterways (~ 7,300 km) Seaways (~17,800 km²) The German waterway network free-flowing rivers (~ 30 %) impounded rivers (~ 45 %) canals (~ 25 %) Different characteristics cause vulnera- bility to different hydrological impacts (German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure, Fachstelle für Geoinformation Süd) (www.wsv.de) (www.wsv.de) (www.wsv.de)
  5. 5. Hydrological impacts on inland waterways Navigation on inland waterways is limited due to: • floods (relevant for all rivers) • low flows (mainly free flowing rivers) • river ice (mainly canals, impounded rivers)
  6. 6. Hydrological impacts on inland waterways Restriction of inland waterway transport (IWT) due to … … river ice … high / low water-levels river ice: occurrence in Central Europe over a limited period of the year floods: could cause relevant costs for IWT, but are rare low flows: occur frequently and are relatively long lasting Low flows could be regarded as main threat of the reliability of European IWT
  7. 7. Forecasting at BfG Development & maintenance of operational forecasting systems for the German waterways (“WAVOS”) … related to water-levels, discharges, ice formation on rivers and canals … for the Waterway and Shipping Administration (Rhine, Danube, Elbe) … for the Federal States (Odra, Main, Saar, Elbe) … continuing improvement of the system / the models / the modules Operational water-level forecasting (“navigation related”) at Rhine, Danube Operational forecasting of ice formation for the most important canals Support of forecasting centers using BfG’s forecasting system WAVOS Involvement in national and international research projects related to hydrological forecasting (e.g. ECCONET, H-SAF, EUPORIAS etc.)
  8. 8. BfG‘s operational forecasting systems Flood Forecasting Centre Main (Bavaria) Flood and daily Forecast Main Flood Forecasting Center Rhine (WSV + Rheinl.-Pfalz) Flood Forecast Rhine from station Worms Federal Institute of Hydrology Traffic-related Forecast Rhine and Danube, Management Kiel Canal*), Ice formation on canals *) under development Water and Shipping Authority Hann. Münden Water management barrage Eder Flood Forecating Centre (Saxony) Flood Forecast Elbe in Saxony Flood Forecasting Centre Elbe (Saxony-Anhalt) Flood Forecast Elbe Flood Forecasting Centre Frankfurt (Odra) Flood and Traffic-related Forecast Odra Water and Shipping Authority Magdeburg Traffic-related Forecast Elbe
  9. 9. Delft-FEWS as a main forecast component 2006 Installation of „Delft-FEWS Rhine“ at BfG 2008 Integration of Delft-FEWS in operational forecasting procedure (Rhine)
  10. 10. 2006 Installation of „Delft-FEWS Rhine“ at BfG 2008 Integration of Delft-FEWS in operational forecasting procedure (Rhine) 2009 Update of HBV-model Rhine within Delft-FEWS, optimization / addition of workflows 2010 Import and processing of radar-based precipitation products for the Rhine 2011 - 2012 Implementation of REW-model for River Moselle 2013 Import / processing of differnt ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, DWD 2014 Extension of Delft-FEWS with regard to its spatial domain and forecast tasks; set-up and usage of shadow-system in Delft Delft-FEWS as a main forecast component
  11. 11. Extension to all German river basins Coverage of all basins realted the inland waterways Domain of FEWS-BfG 2006 – 2013 (~ 170.000 km²) Current Domain of FEWS-BfG (~ 465.000 km²) Danube Odra Elbe Weser Eider Ems Rhine
  12. 12. Extension to all German river basins Implementation of additional meteorological and hydrological stations Import of additional parameters dewpoint temperature air pressure sunduration wind speed and direction 2014 2013 ~ 1000 stations ~ 1800 stations
  13. 13. Producing reports with Delft-FEWS Requirements of general content: Information about timeliness of meteorological forecasts Combination of maps, graphs, tables, text PDF-documents with the file name containing generation date Workflow Template Data Set Delft-FEWS Export graphics Export time series Export template filled with info HTML Export scripts, legends etc. Java Report PDF-Converter PDF Report Generation of official forecast products
  14. 14. Report „Hydrometeorology for waterways“ Replacement / enhancements of an existing BfG-instrument to prepare meteorological forecast from DWD / ECMWF for waterway authorities in the different basins Generation of HTML- and PDF-exports by FEWS complex time-/content related reporting scheme export of up to 56 reports at one time creation of 381 maps of forecast data conditional lebelling generation of multi page pdfs
  15. 15. Report „Hydrometeorology for waterways“
  16. 16. Extended support for Flood Forecasting Center Rhine Synopsis of various deterministic flow forecasts and the COSMO-LEPS ensemble Reports as HTML- and PDF-documents Report „Rhine tributaries“
  17. 17. Probabilistic water-level forecasts Rhine Probability that water-levels will exceed or fall below of threshold values relevant for navigation 1.Ensemble simulation of water levels along the River Rhine 2.Statistical analysis (matter of current R & D activities at BfG) 3.Calculation of exceedance probabilities for every time step 4.Identification of maximum value per day Report „Probabilistic water-level forecasts“
  18. 18. Additional modules to forecast ice formation ( canals)  replacement of BfG‘s former forecast system  recipient: all waterway users New module to forecast ice formation
  19. 19. Additional modules to forecast ice formation (for canals)  replacement of BfG‘s former forecast system  recipient: all waterway users Linked to Delft-FEWS by general adapter JAVA code by Hydrotec Input Water temperature (measured, manuel input) Air temperature (measured and forecast over 10 d) Ice thickness (measured, manuel input) Output Water temperature over 10 d Ice thickness over 10 d Export PDF for 3 different canals, subdivided into 12 sections Time series (input/output) in csv-format New module to forecast ice formation
  20. 20. PDF-export early ice warning Mosel/Saar Additional modules to estimate potential ice formation (for impounded rivers)  new element of BfG‘s ice forecasting system  recipient: Waterway ans Shipping Administration Calculation risk of icing by comparison of output (water temperature) with threshould values Linked to Delft-FEWS by general adapter JAVA code by Hydrotec Input Water temperature (measured) Air temperature (15 day moving average of measurements and forecasts over 10 days) Output Water temperature for next 10 days Risk of icing for next 10 days Export PDF early ice warning Mosel/Saar Time series (input/ output) csv-format Prototype module for early ice warning on impounded rivers
  21. 21. FEWS in the context of R&D activities Linking of in-house developed modules with Delft-FEWS (ensemble calibration, probabilistic postprocessing, error correction) Hindcast dataset(s) Hindcast dataset(s) „operational staff“ „research & development staff“
  22. 22. Linking of in-house developed modules with Delft-FEWS (example multivariate BMA) End of COSMO-LEPS End of MER, GME FEWS in the context of R&D activities (Hemri, S., Fundel, F. & M. Zappa (2013): Simultaneous calibration of ensemble river flow predictions over an entire range of lead times. Water Resources Research 49, 6744–6755)
  23. 23. Conclusions and next steps From the beginning on FEWS (for the Rhine) has been an important tool within BfG‘s forecast environment for the German waterways. In 2014 FEWS-BfG was substantially extended in order to operate additional tasks of the forecast service for the waterways (reduce redundant data, maximize synergetic effects, e.g. in case of changes in meteo inputs). Although the automatization of forecast tasks proceeds, BfG still strictly seperates the generation of forecasts and the dissemination of (verified) forecast products. FEWS is used more consequent in research & development activities (provision of quasi-operational data, validation of methods in the operational environment) to improve the transfer of models / tools in operational forecasting. Scheduled extensions of BfG‘s operational forecasting services (with probable FEWS involvement): forecast to support water management of several waterways / canals, monthly and seasonal hydrological forecasts for rivers.
  24. 24. Thank you for your attention ! Dennis Meißner Department Water Balance, Forecasting and Predictions Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde / Federal Institute of Hydrology Am Mainzer Tor 1, 56068 Koblenz, Germany Tel.: +49 261/1306-5183 E-Mail: meissner@bafg.de www.bafg.de/vorhersage

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