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DSD-SEA 2019 Plastic modelling in Indonesia-Wardani

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Presentation by Ms. Ira Wardani (Deltares Indonesia) at the Seminar Hydro Software to support policy development and real-time decision making, during the Deltares Software Days South-East Asia 2019. Wednesday, 27 November 2019, Bangkok.

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DSD-SEA 2019 Plastic modelling in Indonesia-Wardani

  1. 1. 1 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permission by SYSTEMIQ, World Bank, or LIPI is strictly prohibited Joint Research Plastic modelling in Indonesia “ An estimate baseline of plastic leakage into the marine environment” Bangkok, 27/11/2019
  2. 2. 2 Government has outlined a Plan of Action with three ambitious targets 1 70% reduction1 of marine plastic debris 2 30% reduction2 of waste at source 3 70% handling rate2 for all waste Source: (1) Indonesia’s plan of action on marine plastic debris, (2) Indonesia Presidential decree No. 97 year 2017 Need for one national baseline for all stakeholders to track and report performance and achievements
  3. 3. 3 Existing research on Indonesia lacks local context, while there is minimal empirical and baseline data in the national level Jambeck et al 2015 • 0.48 – 1.29 million tons per year plastic leakage in Indonesia • Places Indonesia as #2 highest plastic leakage in the world Limitations of global research • Research applies global averages and does not use national (Indonesian) data • Insights provided are not granular enough and therefore not actionable • Largely scientific focus on marine litter and don’t address the source(s) of the problem Lebreton et al 2019 • 1.63 million tons per year mismanaged plastic waste in Indonesia Lebreton et al 2017 • 0.2 million tons per year mid point annual emission into marine environment Existing research mentioning Indonesia There is a need for a comprehensive research focusing on Indonesia with the right granularity and Indonesia-specific data
  4. 4. 4 Building a National Baseline STATE of pollution Baseline for Plastics leakage into the marine environment SOURCES PATHWAYS NPAP WB LIPI Land-based plastic leakage to water bodies. Using secondary data, at city level Flow of unmanaged plastic waste to water bodies based on NPAP best estimate on (mis) village/subdistrict level (population only) and building in hydrology. Stranded plastic waste on beaches, with ocean current flow model Terrestrial Riverine Marine Riverine
  5. 5. 5 PreliminaryNational Baseline New Baseline Estimates for Plastics Leakage into the Marine Environment Source: Cutting Edge Research using Indonesia-specific data (with further validation) Year Study Terrestrial Riverine Marine Solid Waste Management Hydrology Hydrodynamics 2015 Jambeck Global estimates not included not included 2017 Lebreton Global estimates Stochastic approach catchment-discharge not included 2019 NPAP - SystemIQ National estimates (Archetypes) not included not included ongoing WB - Deltares/ Haskoning Higher resolution estimates building on NPAP* Actual rainfall and hydrological system not included 2019 LIPI not included not included Estimates based on hotspot observations *Initially for population only, followed by further refinement of solid waste management practices and behavior
  6. 6. 6 Incorporating Hydrology and Plastic Fate & Transport
  7. 7. 7 Using Hydrology for Waste Flows from Land-based sources and into marine environment SIMPLIFIED VERSION Source: NPAP 2019 Source: Deltares/Haskoning 2019 • How is plastic waste transported to the marine environment? • Does all plastic waste run-off to rivers/lakes? • What role does hydrology play in the distribution of plastic? Hydrology as a driver for plastic waste
  8. 8. 8 Perceptual schematizationUsing modelling … Source: Mismanaged plastic waste may leak into the terrestrial environment (SWM) Solid Waste Handling Solid Waste Handling Hydrology Ocean Dynamics Rainfall initiates run-off of plastic waste in the terrestrial environment to the riverine environment (Catchment) River discharge transports plastic debris down the river … … to the marine environment
  9. 9. 9 From a Perceptual Model to a Conceptual Model Source: Simulating run-off, fate and transport from the terrestrial environment to the marine environment wflow for Hydrological processes: • Rainfall leads to run-off • Run-off leads to river discharge D-Emissions for Fate of Plastic Pollutants • Plastic run-off from terrain (paved/unpaved; buried) • Plastic degradation processes (disintegration; sinking) D-Water Quality for Transport of Plastic Pollutants • Transportation of plastic (sinking, trapping) Conceptual model based on primary processes DELWAQ - engine Historic Rainfall (2013-2019) wflow model (calibrated for high discharges) Plastic leakages into environment (high resolution) D-Emissions module Discharge time series (per catchment) Preliminary plastic input into the marine environment INPUT MODELLING OUTPUT D-Water Quality module
  10. 10. 10 Using modelling .. wflow – D-Emissions and D-Water Quality (DELWAQ) Source: Rainfall-runoff model: run-off and discharge as driver for plastic discharge from terrestrial to marine environment • For Indonesia co-developed by PusAir and Deltares • Only model available that covers whole Indonesia consisting of 7 models with a horizontal resolution of 500m2 • Distributed rainfall-runoff model, open source and freely available • Used for river basin modelling • Input: rainfall 2013-2019, land-use, digital elevation model wflow model rainfall-run-off model, hydrology only Estimating infiltration, run-off, flows
  11. 11. 11 Using modelling .. wflow – D-Emissions and D-Water Quality (DELWAQ) Source: Behaviour of plastic as a water borne pollutant under various forces D-Emissions and D-Water Quality (DELWAQ) models Fate and transport of pollutants TRANSPORT: Terrestrial to river to marine environment: From (im)permeable surfaces mediated by runoff events (precipitation) Within the river system by river flow FATE: By removal and retention processes: (1) degradation in terrestrial environment (2) burial in terrestrial soils (3) retention in river systems 1 2 2 1 2 33 3 2 1 1 2 11 22 Cutting edge methodology Never applied before on this scale INPUTS Leakage of Mismanaged Plastics Waste: (1) direct to surface water and (2) to terrestrial environment 1 2
  12. 12. 12 D-emissions: plastic Initial receptors Final receptorsSource
  13. 13. 13 Linking wflow to D-Emissions: plastic 1 Cell Compartments Sewage Paved Unpaved River/Lake Ocean Boundaries Trash racks Export Linking wflow to D-Emissions
  14. 14. 14 D-Emissions, plastic debris flow modelling Source: The various sources and the quantification of the plastic leaks (in kg/timestep) is stored in separate input layers (shape files or grid files) with the same resolution as the wflow model.
  15. 15. 15 Thanks… Source:

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