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DSD-SEA 2019 Application of Mathematical Modelling Tools in Water Resource Management-Amin

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Presentation by Mr. Gazi Md. Riasat Amin (Bangladesh) at the Seminar Hydro Software to support policy development and real-time decision making, during the Deltares Software Days South-East Asia 2019. Wednesday, 27 November 2019, Bangkok.

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DSD-SEA 2019 Application of Mathematical Modelling Tools in Water Resource Management-Amin

  1. 1. Application of Mathematical Modelling Tools in Water Resource Management Gazi Md Riasat Amin Junior Hydrologist and Climate Expert Climate Change and Disaster Management Division Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS) Meta Model, Delft3D and SOBEK 2
  2. 2. 1991: FAP 19 and FAP 16 1995: FAP 19 & FAP 16 merged to form EGIS 1997: Formation of EGIS II 2002: Formation of CEGIS CEGIS is A Public Trust Under the Ministry of Water Resources, Bangladesh Vision “The overarching aspiration of CEGIS is to continue its relentless advances as a center of excellence in providing intellectual services, policy advocacy, research & capacity development and expanding its service horizon for sustainable development and enabling better environment” Motto “Safeguarding Environment for Future” The Organization I Belong to
  3. 3. W Preamble
  4. 4. W Bengal Delta • The Lower Meghna conveys the combined flows of the Brahmaputra, the Ganges and the Upper Meghna. • The sediment discharge from the Lower Meghna River is the highest and the water discharges the third highest, of all river systems in the world . • Erosion and accretion rates are high and the area is periodically subjected to severe storms and cyclones.
  5. 5. W 2 Development of 2D Hydrodynamic Bay of Bengal Model Using Delft3D 4 Development of Quasi 2D Regional Hydrodynamic Model Using SOBEK 2 3 Todays Topic 1 Development of Bangladesh Metamodel Joint corporation program – Bangladesh and Netherlands
  6. 6. W Bangladesh Meta Model Main Goal: The main goal is to support adaptive delta (IWRM and ICZM) planning (within SIBDP) by key stakeholders such as the GED, Ministry of Water Resources and others in investment planning and integrated assessment. Objective of the Bangladesh Metamodel (from Blue Accounting): to support the formulation, analysis and evaluation of alternative management strategies
  7. 7. W Bangladesh Meta Model • Meta model will be based on existing data, knowledge and detailed models • No developments of new data, knowledge and detailed models • Joint development by Bangladeshi and Dutch experts to ensure that model can be applied, maintained and extended after the project • ‘Ownership’ and roles for organizations will be developed during the project to ensure sustainability after JCP
  8. 8. Bangladesh Meta Model Iterative development, not starting with detailed specifications Version 0.10 June 2019 Version 0.20 December 2019 Version 1.00 March 2020
  9. 9. Bangladesh Meta Model
  10. 10. Bangladesh Meta Model Framework Other Modules
  11. 11. W Objective 1. To have the essential comprehension of the hydrodynamic condition in the coastal zone of Bangladesh which is highly affected by natural and many other man-made activities. 2. To generate boundary condition for small scale model. 2D Hydrodynamic Model Using Delft3D 4 Delft3D-FLOW
  12. 12. W Model Domain: 1. Ganges, Brahmaputra, Upper Meghna and coastal zone of Bangladesh . 1. Downstream boundary is about 204km (approx.) away from coastal floodplain 2D Hydrodynamic Model Using Delft3D 4
  13. 13. Grid Size The model is applied using a single-layer spherical coordinate system. Curvilinear grid is used for the discretization. In the ocean, grid size was approximately 500 m X 600 m and in estuaries the grid size was approximately 200 X 300 m. 2D Hydrodynamic Model Using Delft3D 4
  14. 14. Bathymetry Cross sectional data for each of the estuaries in the estuarine systems of the GBM delta are collected from CEGIS Database. Open access General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO) data is used as the bathymetry of the Bay of Bengal. The inland ground elevation data is derived from the National Digital Elevation Model available in CEGIS Database. 2D Hydrodynamic Model Using Delft3D 4
  15. 15. Upstream Downstream 1) Ganges 2) Brahmaputra 3) Upper Meghna Time series Discharge Data 1) Deep Sea Time Series Tidal Water Level derived from Naotide prediction system (Matsumoto, 2000). One Downstream Boundary Three Upstream Boundary 2D Hydrodynamic Model Using Delft3D 4
  16. 16. Hiron Point Khepupara CoxsBazar Hiron Point (Monsoon) Coxsbazar (Dry Season) 2D Hydrodynamic Model Using Delft3D 4 Calibration and Validation
  17. 17. Domain Decomposition Storm Surge Model Delft Dashboard Interface Surge Track was collected from Indian Meteorological Department Website
  18. 18. Storm Surge Model
  19. 19. Bay of Bengal Model in Delft3D FM Translation of the Developed Bay of Bengal Model on Delft3D 4 (structured) to Delft3D FM (flexible mesh) is going on
  20. 20. Understanding flooding characteristics of main rivers, major khals etc. in DAP area Assessment of flooding scenario considering extreme events, coupled with DAP estimated urban growth Formulation of mitigation measures to address flooding issues This study covers the assessment of overall flood hydrology in and around greater Dhaka city Quasi 2D Model Using SOBEK 2
  21. 21. HD model facilitates to detect: ▪ Flooding characteristics ▪ Drainage pattern ▪ Impact assessment ▪ Mitigation measures formulation Inundation Before and After Intervention Quasi 2D Model Using SOBEK 2 Approach of The Model
  22. 22. Problems regarding flooding and drainage issues inside DMA and outer fringe area has been identified A hydrodynamic and hydrologic model for North Central Region has been developed An integrated sub-model for DAP area have been setup using SOBEK 2 The model is calibrated and validated with observed data and information Model has been run for three land use scenarios e.g. Existing land use, DAP proposed land use and Strategic land use Each of the land use scenario has been simulated for 1988, 1998, 2004 and 2009 extreme events Quasi 2D Model Using SOBEK 2
  23. 23. Result Analysis for 1998 and 2004 Flood1998Flood 2004Flood
  24. 24. Existing land use DAP 2010-15 land use DSP 2016-35 land use Kashimpur National monument Ashulia Uttara Baghair National Parliament Martyr Intellectual Memorial Hemayetpur Kalatia Hazratpur Fatullah Kashimpur National monument Ashulia Uttara Baghair National Parliament Martyr Intellectual Memorial Hemayetpur Kalatia Hazratpur Fatullah Kashimpur National monument Ashulia Uttara Baghair National Parliament Martyr Intellectual Memorial Hemayetpur Kalatia Hazratpur Fatullah Flood Free: 62% Low flooded: 5% Deeply flooded: 33% Flood Free: 62% Low flooded: 14% Deeply flooded: 24% Flood Free: 51% Low Flooded: 5% Deeply Flooded: 44% Result Analysis for 1998 Flood
  25. 25. Result Analysis for 1998 Flood Hard Measures Soft Measures Measures are generally divided into two categories which are hard and soft. ❑ Conservation of wetlands ❑ Storm water quantity control ❑ Institution and capacity development ❑ Revitalization of khals ❑ Establishment of connectivity ❑ Provision of buffer zone or flood passage ❑ Dredging of peripheral rivers
  26. 26. Result Outcome Preliminary identified buffer zone or flood passage Wetlands must be conserved in delineated zone Turag Chilai Bangshi Buriga nga Suti Sitalakhya Tongi K hal B alu D haleswari Bangshi (Sava r) Ichamati (Manikganj) G azik hali Dhaka Gazipur Munshiganj Narayanganj Tangail Savar Sreepur Sreenagar Kaliakair Keraniganj Serajdikhan Gazipur Sadar Turag Chilai Bangshi Buriga nga Suti Sitalakhya Tongi K hal B alu D haleswari Bangshi (Sava r) Ichamati (Manikganj) G azik hali Dhaka Gazipur Munshiganj Narayanganj Tangail Savar Sreepur Sreenagar Kaliakair Keraniganj Serajdikhan Gazipur Sadar
  27. 27. THANK YOU

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