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DSD-SEA 2018 Laguna Lake A Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Study of a Potential Water Source for Metro Manila - Umali, Calleja

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Presentation by Mr. Miguel Fernando B Umali and Mr Mark Calleja (Manila Water, Philippines) at the Seminar Cutting Edge Hydro Software for South-East Asia, during the Deltares Software Days South-East Asia 2018. Thursday, 6 September 2018, Yogyakarta.

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DSD-SEA 2018 Laguna Lake A Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Study of a Potential Water Source for Metro Manila - Umali, Calleja

  1. 1. Laguna Lake: A Hydro-dynamic and Water Quality Study for Potential Water Source for Metro Manila Miguel Umali Mark Calleja Manila Water Company, Inc.
  2. 2. Philippines • Metro Manila • Boracay • Laguna • Clark • Cebu • Zamboanga Vietnam Myanmar Thailand Indonesia
  3. 3. Manila Concession
  4. 4. to, now, more than 6,600,000 people Since1997, Has been providing Water, Wastewater and Environmental Services Has been providing Manila Water Company Manila Concession
  5. 5. Manila Concession Complete Water Value Chain Water Source Water Treatment Water Distribution Sewer Collection and Treatment Customer Relationship Management
  6. 6. Manila Concession “Our mission is to create an exceptional customer experience in the provision of sustainable solutions vital to health and life.”
  7. 7. Outline • Manila Concession Water Supply and Demand • Laguna Lake as Potential Water Source • Risks in drawing water from Laguna Lake • Historical occurrence – salinity intrusion • How do we plan to mitigate against these risks? • Hydrodynamics of Laguna Lake • Current undertakings and next steps
  8. 8. Demand and Supply Gap • Rapid development in Metro Manila challenges Manila Concession in providing continuous and reliable water supply 24/7 • Without exploring new water sources, a supply gap is imminent.
  9. 9. - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 MDD Demand (ADD) Available Supply + New Water Source Current Water Source • New water sources are needed to augment the supply from Angat due to the continuous increase in water demand in the East Zone. 2016 Supply deficit during MDD Demand vs Supply – Manila Water Concession
  10. 10. - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 MDD Demand (ADD) Available Supply + New Water Source Current Water Source • Even with the supply of the Central Bay, there is still an impending supply deficit at 2022 until the new water source, Kaliwa arrives in 2023. Kaliwa 300MLD in 2023 Laiban 900MLD in 2027Laguna Lake Central Bay 100MLD in 2018 2022 Supply deficit Demand vs Supply – Manila Water Concession
  11. 11. - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 MDD Demand (ADD) Available Supply + New Water Source Current Water Source • Due to this, the Laguna Lake East Bay Water Source is proposed as a medium-term water supply source for the East Zone. 2022 Supply deficit Kaliwa 300MLD in 2023 Laiban 900MLD in 2027Laguna Lake Central Bay 100MLD in 2018 Laguna Lake East Bay 250MLD in 2022 Demand vs Supply – Manila Water Concession
  12. 12. Laguna Lake Water Source • Laguna Lake is a potential water source for the Manila Concession • Surface Area – 914 km² • Average Depth – 2.5 m • Perennially Turbid • Competing use factors • Fresh water for people • Brackish water from fisheries • Repository for Industry
  13. 13. Laguna Lake Water Source • With the support of Deltares, Manila Water identified the Hydrodynamics and Water Quality of Laguna Lake • In October 2017, Manila Water requested consultancy works from Deltares, to study the Laguna Lake Water Source • Fresh water for people
  14. 14. Rudy Schueder • M.A.Sc. Civil Engineering (Canada) • Consultant – Environmental hydrodynamics, Deltares (Netherlands) • Specialist in numerical modelling of water quality in coastal systems • Hydrodynamics and salinity intrusion in rivers • Aquatic chemistry in reservoirs and estuaries • Large scale emission modelling • Working with Manila water on Laguna Lake since October 2017
  15. 15. Components considered in this study that affects water quality • Hydro-dynamics and Water Quality • Water level of the lake • Salinity • Total Dissolved Solids (TDS)
  16. 16. Risks to drinking water in Laguna Lake – Water volume considerations
  17. 17. Backflow Example (Baseline)
  18. 18. Historical occurrence – salinity intrusion
  19. 19. Historical occurrence – salinity intrusion – monthly average
  20. 20. Questions that arise from the data • When will this salinity intrusion occur? • When will it reach Central Bay and East Bay? • How will these conditions change in the future? • Some risks that MWCI foresees: • El Nino? • Typhoons? • La Nina? • Population and land use changes?
  21. 21. How do we plan to mitigate against these risks? • Improve Water Supply Planning to be prepared for: • Salt Water Intrusion to the lake • El Nino • Decrease in Water Quality • Use Data Driven Design • Better estimation of facility cost • Better estimate of operating conditions of our facilities • Scenario Assessment of the Lake
  22. 22. Hydro-dynamic Analysis of Laguna Lake • Hydrodynamic & Water Quality modelling • Scenario Selection • Scenario Assessment • Final Report and Model improvements
  23. 23. Hydrodynamic and water quality modelling Delft3D FLOW
  24. 24. Delft3D-FLOW model
  25. 25. Model Results
  26. 26. Scenario selection The following 6 were identified as priority: • The El Nino period between March 1997 and May 1998 (a dry period) • Typhoon Ketsana in 2009 • Monsoon (wet year) in 2012 • Effect of reverse osmosis process used in water treatment plants • Sea level rise based on pessimistic predictions (+0.25 m) • Southern and eastern population pressure increase
  27. 27. Creating an el Nino • Used data from el Nino 1997-1998 • Rainfall will affect hydrological model: river flow rates will decrease • Will affect hydrodynamic model: less water will enter the lake (fluvial and pluvial) and lake level will drop • Will affect water quality: more salinity will enter the lake
  28. 28. (Preliminary) Scenario assessment – el Nino 1997-1998 Tropical storm Bining Typhoon Miling + Tropical Storm Cass
  29. 29. (Preliminary) Scenario assessment – el Nino 1997-1998
  30. 30. (Preliminary) Scenario assessment – el Nino 1997-1998
  31. 31. Backflow Example (El Nino)
  32. 32. • Updating the Base Model to the current data given by the agency covering Laguna Lake • Applying the models on other watershed (such as La Mesa Watershed) • Training and improvement of the team in relations to Modelling, and calibrations Current Undertakings
  33. 33. Team Members Miguel Umali SAM-SAPD Anjelica Ancheta SAM-WREP Mark Calleja SAM-SAPD Hydrodynamics Water Quality Romulo Samia SAM-SAPD Louie Gugol SAM-SAPD Consultant - Deltares Rudy Schueder Deltares
  34. 34. Thank You!

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