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DSD-INT 2020 Dealing with uncertainties in flow forecasting for hydropower generation in Brazil

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DSD-INT 2020 Dealing with uncertainties in flow forecasting for hydropower generation in Brazil

  1. 1. Dealing with uncertainties in flow forecasting for hydropower generation in Brazil Alberto Assis dos Reis Chief Hydrology Engineer Delft-FEWS User Days November 5th
  2. 2. Dealing with uncertainties in flow forecasting for hydropower generation in Brazil Flow forecast for more than 160 HPP in Brazil 3 sources of uncertainty 1. The observed precipitation 2. The precipitation forecast 3. The hydrological modeling • The spot market energy price • Long-term energy trading strategies
  3. 3. Strategies to deal with the uncertainty at FEWS CEMIG Dealing with uncertainties in flow forecasting for hydropower generation in Brazil 1. The observed precipitation uncertainty • Combine two sources (TRMM-MERGE and CPC) weighted by the individual uncertainty E
  4. 4. Strategies to deal with the uncertainty at FEWS CEMIG Dealing with uncertainties in flow forecasting for hydropower generation in Brazil 2. The forecast precipitation uncertainty • Ensemble of models • Bias correction using Quantile Mapping method • Seamless forecast
  5. 5. Strategies to deal with the uncertainty at FEWS CEMIG Dealing with uncertainties in flow forecasting for hydropower generation in Brazil 3. The hydrological modeling uncertainty • Dressing forecast technique – to correct the calibration systematic bias • Data assimilation – output error correction method
  6. 6. Thank You! Alberto Assis dos Reis aarhidroreis@gmail.com betoreis@cemig.com.br

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