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DSD-INT 2019 Response of the Upper Rhine-Meuse Delta to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Interference - Ylla

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Presentation by Clàudia Ylla Arbós, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands, at the Delft3D - User Days (Day 3a: River morphodynamics), during Delft Software Days - Edition 2019. Wednesday, 13 November 2019, Delft.

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DSD-INT 2019 Response of the Upper Rhine-Meuse Delta to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Interference - Ylla

  1. 1. Response of the Upper Rhine-Meuse Delta to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Interference Clàudia Ylla Arbós with Francesca Soci Ralph Schielen Astrid Blom Photo: RWS
  2. 2. 2 Observed regional trends of river flood discharges in Europe (1960–2010). Blöschl, G., Hall, J., Viglione, A. et al. Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods. Nature 573, 108–111 (2019).
  3. 3. Sea level rise KNMI 2014 3 Moderate scenario Extreme scenario
  4. 4. What is the expected range of long term (100-150 years), large scale response of the upper Rhine-Meuse Delta to climate change … Objective 4 …and anthropogenic interference?
  5. 5. Outline 5 1. Climate change affects the RMD 2. Bed level change in the past 3. Bed level change today 4. Climate change and future bed level change
  6. 6. What has been going on? – Waal 1830 6 1870 1930 http://topotijdreis.nl/ Rijkswaterstaat
  7. 7. What has been going on? – Waal 1830 7 Downstream-migrating degradational wave Flow velocity Sedim. transp. capacity Channel narrowing Equilibrium channel slope 1870 1930 http://topotijdreis.nl/
  8. 8. Slope change in the Waal 8
  9. 9. Slope change in the Waal… until when? 9
  10. 10. Is that the case everywhere? - IJssel 10
  11. 11. The slope of the IJssel has decreased as well… but wait 11 Room for the River Initial response to Room for the River measures ?
  12. 12. Statistics of water discharge: Extremer extremes Longer dry periods Climate change affects the river system 12 Sea level rise … because it affects the river controls
  13. 13. River response to sea level rise 13 Sea level rise of 3 mm/yr during 24 years Steady flow with dominant discharge Unisize sediment Engelund-Hansen sediment transport relation
  14. 14. River response to sea level rise 14 Upstream-migrating aggradational wave Sea level rise of 3 mm/yr during 24 years Steady flow with dominant discharge Unisize sediment Engelund-Hansen sediment transport relation Flow velocity Sedim. transp. capacity Base level Reach-wide bed level rise (equilibrium slope unchanged)
  15. 15. Historic mean Bandwidth of scenarios River response to an increased dominant discharge Adapted from Sperna-Weiland (2014) 15 Hydrograph scenarios
  16. 16. Hydrograph scenarios River response to an increased dominant discharge Adapted from Sperna-Weiland, 2014 16 Greater effect of peak flows Dominant discharge Flow velocity Sedim. transp. capacity Equilibrium channel slope Historic mean Bandwidth of scenarios Downstream-migrating degradational wave Adapted from Arkesteijn et al. (2019)
  17. 17. Insight on the Upper Rhine-Meuse delta › Highly intervened system › Response to measures of past century – has slowed down › Response to recent measures – fast? › Climate change affects the system: › Sea level rise - Enhanced aggradation › Higher dominant discharge – Slope reduction, degradation 17
  18. 18. Thank you! c.yllaarbos@tudelft.nl 18

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