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DSD-INT 2019 Opening Data Science Symposium - Kwadijk


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Presentation by Jaap Kwadijk, Deltares, at the Data Science Symposium, during Delft Software Days - Edition 2019. Thursday, 14 November 2019, Delft.

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DSD-INT 2019 Opening Data Science Symposium - Kwadijk

  1. 1. Research institute for water, subsurface and infrastructure Jaap Kwadijk, Director of Science Data Science Symposium 2019
  2. 2. Characteristics of institute ▪ Independent research institute on water, soil and infrastructure ▪ 840 people, 114M€ annual turnover ▪ Our motto: ‘enabling delta life’ ▪ Legal form: foundation under Dutch law (no shareholders) ▪ Activities targeted at extending our knowledge (Not4Profit) ▪ Doing applied research and specialized consultancy ▪ Working (inter)nationally for public and private sector ▪ Making use large in-house research facilities and software ▪ Strong links with Academia ▪ Open source policy Campus in Delft
  3. 3. Our daily business
  4. 4. Thoughts on climate adaptation Jaap Kwadijk
  5. 5. 5 Slide borrowed from Nidhi Kalra (Rand)
  6. 6. These investments will be pretty big (World Bank; June 2019) 6
  7. 7. What worries us:
  8. 8. If this would be true: life time of investments decreases: we are running out of time Levensduur van fictieve adaptatie maatregel voor 50 cm zeespiegelstijging 65 jaar 20 jaar 10 jaar Accelerated SLR RCP4.5 * Accelerated SLR RCP8.5 * Delta scenarios warm, steam 2014 65 year 20 year 10 year SeaLevelRisecm Life time of an imaginary measure designed for 50 cm SLR Large uncertainty Year
  9. 9. Within 50 years we might have to decide between these options What do we need for that?
  10. 10. BETTER MODELS??
  11. 11. Example: sea level rise => mangrove erosion = a world-wide flood problem Suriname Thailand 400 m coastline Nov 2001 coastline 2013 these are remnants of coastal breakwaters, put in place after 2008 Indonesia British Guyana Suriname Thailand
  12. 12. We need something clever to protect this kind of areas 18 december 2019
  13. 13. We need something clever to protect this kind of areas 18 december 2019
  14. 14. Hard Structures, nature based solutions: “Happy Mangrove planting” • Hard structures on muddy beds expensive to keep stable: • Mangrove replantation. Success rates of 5 – 10 %. coast-protecting groins, Georgetown However, after some time, this is the picture (90-95 % of the experiments)
  15. 15. Although we write great papers about nature based solutions….
  16. 16. This is the level of maturity of nature based engineering(~19th century)
  17. 17. Nature based solutions: Delta flume experiment with willows Funding partly via crowd sourcing
  18. 18. Need for really large scale experiments…. but these are difficult to execute Salt marsh works in NL Permeable dams mimic mangrove Evolution in time Permeable dams to reclaim the land
  19. 19. So in our view, for climate adaptation: We need urgently tools that can simulate behaviour of Nature Based Solutions simply… … to avoid the most dangerous mistakes in decision making