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DSD-INT 2019 Benchmarking Models for River-Sea System Studies-Bellafiore

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Presentation by Debora Bellafiore (ISMAR, Italy), at the DANUBIUS Modelling Workshop, during Delft Software Days - Edition 2019. Friday, 8 November 2019, Delft.

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DSD-INT 2019 Benchmarking Models for River-Sea System Studies-Bellafiore

  1. 1. Benchmarking Models for River-Sea System Studies Debora Bellafiore CNR-ISMAR
  2. 2. 08/11/2019Delft Software Days Rationale ⚫ Overview of the modelling tools for RS systems – Problems and challenges ⚫ Modelling capability of DANUBIUS ⚫ Set up of preliminary criteria for modelling RS systems ⚫ Building a strategy for benchmarking ⚫ Organization ⚫ Benchmark criteria ⚫ Uncertainty estimation and sources of uncertainties ⚫ Quality control
  3. 3. 08/11/2019Delft Software Days Why River-Sea Systems are so important – why to model them? RIVER-ESTUARIES RIVER-DELTAS CULTURAL HERITAGE INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUTURE ENERGY GEO-HAZARDS HABITAT PRESSURES NAVIGATION DAMS POLLUTION RECREATION FISHING FLOODING DROUGHT CATCHMENT CHANGE
  4. 4. 08/11/2019Delft Software Days mountains Drainage Basin sea tributaries estuary ground water Catchment Urban area Towards a transboundary and transdisciplinary approach Covering the whole geographical domain, from source to transitional areas and sea. River-sea systems comprise whole river basins and coastal seas and can be understood only by considering them as complex but integrated systems. The system as a continuum Overview on the modelling tools for RS systems – problems and challenges
  5. 5. 08/11/2019Delft Software Days Modelling capability of DANUBIUS The community is composed by: • Model developers • Contributors • Users • Possible stakeholders We made a survey to define the full range of skills, the possible available tools, the open issues connected with benchmarking and some draft guidelines to be elaborated more but that can lead to the delivery of commons connected with Modelling
  6. 6. 08/11/2019Delft Software Days Modelling capability of DANUBIUS
  7. 7. 08/11/2019Delft Software Days Modelling capability of DANUBIUS Models used by the community
  8. 8. 08/11/2019Delft Software Days Models used by the community 10 Modelling capability of DANUBIUS
  9. 9. 08/11/2019Delft Software Days Modelling capability of DANUBIUS Models used by the community Suite of modules, full model, not just highly specialized modules
  10. 10. 08/11/2019Delft Software Days SHYFEM Model 3D Finite element hydrodynamic model, staggered for the spatial integration. 3D shallow water hydrodynamic model, coupled with a wind wave model and with both an Eulerian and a Lagrangian module, for simulating active tracers transport and diffusion. External modules: Sediment Transport SEDTRANS Ecological module EUTRO-WASP Biogeochemical module BFM Wave module WWMII Turbulence closure module GOTM been already and successfully applied to several transitional and coastal environments
  11. 11. 08/11/2019Delft Software Days SCHISMSemi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Integrated System Model for creek-lake-river-estuary-shelf-ocean simulations ⚫ Open-source community-supported modeling system ⚫ Using unstructured grids, designed for seamless simulation of 3D baroclinic circulation ⚫ semi-implicit finite-element/finite-volume method with Eulerian-Lagrangian algorithm ⚫ Hybrid SZ coordinates or new LSC2 in the vertical dimension ⚫ Natural treatment of wetting and drying suitable for inundation studies ⚫ Mass conservative, monotone, higher-order transport solver: TVD2; WENO
  12. 12. 08/11/2019Delft Software Days Delft3D Flexible Mesh Suite - Integrated 1D-2D-3D computational core for hydrodynamics on the basis of flexible meshes - Modules for waves, morphology, water quality - Worldwide applications: - Rhine river and delta - North Sea, Wadden Sea, San Francisco Bay, … - Global Storm Surge Model https://www.deltares.nl/en/software/delft3d-flexible-mesh-suite/
  13. 13. 08/11/2019Delft Software Days TELEMAC-MASCARET (in a nutshell) • Integrated “solver suite” for free surface flow, unstructured triangular mesh finite element or finite volume model. • Open source, managed and developed by the European Telemac-Mascaret Consortium (Artelia (F), BAW (D), CEREMA (F), CETMEF (F), Daresbury (UK), EDF (F), HRW (UK)) (opentelemac.org). MASCARET: One-dimensional flows TELEMAC-2D: Two-dimensional flows - Saint-Venant equations (including transport of a diluted tracer) TELEMAC-3D: Three-dimensional flows - Navier-Stokes equations (including transport of active or passive tracers and suspended sediment transport) TOMAWAC: Wave propagation in the coastal zone ARTEMIS: Wave agitation in harbours SISYPHE and GAIA: 2D suspended and bed load sediment transport, NESTOR: Simulation of dredging operations, WAQTEL: water quality modelling, KHIONE: ice modelling ⚫ Telemac-3D simulation of scalar velocity in the River Rhine, Jungferngrund (Rhine-km 548,5 - 556,5) BAW SISYPHE: 2D simulation of bed-load discharge in the River Rhine, Düsseldorfer Bögen (Rhine-km 741-745)
  14. 14. 08/11/2019Delft Software Days Set up of preliminary criteria for modelling RS systems Codes must be open source: ⚫ Models that are a suite of modules are privileged, because of their modularity, wide range of interdisciplinary implementations, degree of standardization. ⚫ Core model software developers should be part of DANUBIUS-RI, providing the opportunity to directly act on the codes for development, updates, upgrades. ⚫ The models that are well-known, widely applied and that collect large groups of users should be privileged, since they increase the critical mass, introducing internal practice of benchmarking and large and shared knowledge about implementations in RSS. ⚫ The morphological complexity of RSS systems requires modelling tools able to resolve properly both large and small scale structures/features, therefore unstructured grid models are privileged.
  15. 15. 08/11/2019Delft Software Days Building a strategy for benchmarking Organization ⚫ The success of a benchmark initiative depends on the collection of information that is needed for the purpose of the benchmark. ⚫ The benchmark criteria and the methodology should be clear and accepted by the parties involved. ⚫ The information about each model should be as complete as possible, in a format that makes comparison between the models easy. ⚫ If software documentation is insufficient, the information should be collected from or confirmed by the original developers. ⚫ Functional and non-functional performance criteria should be well defined and applied consequently for all models in the benchmark. ⚫ Developers of the modelling systems should get ample time to respond to the findings of the benchmark. ⚫ For sake of transparency, the outcome of the benchmark should be communicated with a wide audience.
  16. 16. 08/11/2019Delft Software Days Example Inundation Modelling (NL) ⚫ Pluvial flooding events in The Netherlands urged the regional water authorities to analyse the bottlenecks in the drainage systems. ⚫ In 2017, a benchmark study was carried out with ten different model codes. ⚫ In the process, water authorities, engineering firms, modellers and software developers were involved
  17. 17. 08/11/2019Delft Software Days Example Inundation Modelling (NL) ⚫ Completeness of the model code, which was determined by making an extensive inventory of the functionalities of the model codes. ⚫ Accuracy of the model code, determined by the simulation of seven representative situations with each model code.
  18. 18. 08/11/2019Delft Software Days Example Inundation Modelling (NL) ⚫ The benchmark focused on: • Surface water (1D or 2D) • Sewer systems (1D) • 2D overland flow (inundation and/or rainfall runoff)
  19. 19. 08/11/2019Delft Software Days Building a strategy for benchmarking Benchmark criteria Define the objectives of the model study Clarify the spatial and temporal scale Framework of the modelling implementation components Classify the model confidence level Benchmark tests Methodology for quantifying models’ uncertainties Answer the question: uncertainties quantified are acceptable? • Available data • Cal procedures • Cal-Implementation consistency • Model setup • Cal/val approaches • Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses
  20. 20. 08/11/2019Delft Software Days Building a strategy for benchmarking Benchmark criteria Theme Modelling Tool Test Relevant input Target variables Storm surge 2D hydrodynamic model -reproduce tide gauge data corresponding to a surge event; -wind and atmospheric pressure (frequency > 3h); -tidal signal (frequency > 3h); bathymetry Water level Flooding/ Drought/ Compound floods 2D hydrodynamic model -mass conservation in box with bathymetry comprising wet and dry areas; - Reproduce water levels and spatial flooding patterns Bathymetry; Freshwater + lateral water sources; Meteomarine forcings; Surface water exchange (mass – precipitation-evaporation) -water levels; -flooded areas/volumes (spatial, temporal evolution); -water volumes; Salt Water Intrusion/ transport 3D hydrodynamic baroclinic model reproduce salinity concentrations in 3D -cross-sectional volume flux -river discharge -salinity and temperature (sea-river) -bathymetry -3D salinity (halocline) Navigation (inland) 2D / 3D hydrodynamic model -reproduce longitudinal and transversal flow velocities -river discharge -flow velocity River training 2D / 3D hydrodynamic model -reproduce longitudinal water level fixing -reproduce cross-section velocity profiles -river discharge -water level -flow velocity
  21. 21. 08/11/2019Delft Software Days Building a strategy for benchmarking Benchmark criteria Theme Modelling Tool Test Relevant input Target variables Sediment Balance/ Transport/Erosion- Deposition (rivers) -2D / 3D hydrodynamic model -morphodynamic model -reproduce transport rates -reproduce bottom evolution -river discharge -sediment transport -bathymetry -Bathymetry -Bottom evolution -erosion/deposition patterns Morphological evolution (rivers) -2D / 3D hydrodynamic model -morphodynamic model -secondary currents -reproduce meandering -river discharge -sediment transport -bathymetry -Bathymetry -Bottom evolution -erosion/deposition patterns Pollutants -2D/3D coupled pollutants- hydrodynamic model -standalone pollutant model --reproduce pollutant concentrations -river, atmospheric, industrial, urban, direct point discharges -pollutant concentration, pollutant transformation fluxes Nutrients 2D/3D coupled pollutants- hydrodynamic model -standalone pollutant model --reproduce nutrient concentrations -river, atmospheric, industrial, urban, direct point discharges -nutrient concentration, pollutant transformation fluxes Oil Spill offline coupling to 2D-3D hydrodynamic fields -reproduce weathering curves and transport patterns 2D-3D hydrodynamic fields, 2D wind fields -oil thickness, oil volume Connectivity offline coupling to 2D-3D hydrodynamic fields -reproduce transport patterns, comparison with genetic variability (for biological species) 2D-3D hydrodynamic fields, 2D wind fields -convergence or dispersal density
  22. 22. 08/11/2019Delft Software Days Building a strategy for benchmarking Uncertainty estimation and sources of uncertainties Performance Measures Sensitivity Analysis Acceptance range Quantify the impact of uncertainties on decision makingon performance measures Define the most relevant variables describing the object of the study Quantify the relative impact on model outputs due to model setup, in terms of parameter tuning. Identify a range for the setup of the identified parameters, in order to obtain acceptable model results Provide an empirical probability distribution based on the above- mentioned protocol, for each relevant parameter Define how much relevant these uncertainties are in the use of model results for decision making actions.
  23. 23. 08/11/2019Delft Software Days Sources of uncertainties can be connected to: ⚫ Input data uncertainties, in boundary and initial conditions. ⚫ Structural uncertainties in physical representation in model codes. ⚫ Numerical errors in model algorithms, approximations in the numerical schemes used. ⚫ Errors in the choice of parameterizations. Building a strategy for benchmarking Uncertainty estimation and sources of uncertainties
  24. 24. 08/11/2019Delft Software Days Building a strategy for benchmarking Uncertainty estimation and sources of uncertainties ⚫ Model performances are evaluated through statistics on goodness of fit (GFI), computing: ⚫ The root mean square error (RMSE). ⚫ The bias. ⚫ The Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient. ⚫ The slope, γ, providing evaluation of model over- or under-estimation.
  25. 25. 08/11/2019Delft Software Days Building a strategy for benchmarking Quality control ⚫ Quality control procedures through DANUBIUS Data Centre Portal for modelled data flows. ⚫ Use of artificial intelligence algorithms for quality check ⚫ increase the autonomy of automatic procedures over time, ensuring the consistency and regularity of the data to be stored. ⚫ Quality control for data and metadata (data-related information) ⚫ e-signature to assure quality control
  26. 26. 08/11/2019Delft Software Days How to proceed? ⚫ Increasing the critical mass dealing with modelling activities in RSS is the way to enforce benchmark initiatives and identify the major aspects of interest for these specific environments. ⚫ The DANUBIUS Modelling Node can be the room for interaction. www.danubius-pp.eu www.danubius-ri.eu

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