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D e l t a r e s – D e l f t S o f t w a r e D a y s – 1 2 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 9
Firmijn Zijl, Julien Groenenboom and Stendert Laan
3D model of the North Sea using Delft3D FM
Contents
• Background
• Model setup
• Results
• Ongoing developments
o Current validation
o Extension with Baltic Sea
3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
2/25
Background - ‘Sea Level Science’
• Models used for official Dutch water level forecasts
• Accurate, real-time water level forecasting important for informed discussion on movable barrier closure
• D-Flow FM module of the Delft3D Flexible Mesh Suite (Delft3D FM) now available
➢ New model to take advantage of new possibilities: DCSM-FM (DCSM = Dutch Continental Shelf Model)
3/25
3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
Background – ‘Environmental Hydrodynamics’
Outside world (e.g. CMEMS):
• Increased spatial extent
• Higher horizontal resolution
• Higher vertical resolution
➢Upgrade required
Difference in approach for:
• Environmental Hydrodynamics
(with 3D transport models)
• Sea Level Science
(with 2D tide-surge models)
Solution: borrow schematization, barotropic forcing and
calibration effort from existing 2D models
3D ZUNO(-DD) model
4/25
3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
Background – Proposed DCSM-FM schematisations
5/25
DCSM-FM 0.5nm
DCSM-FM 100m
2D
3D (+S/T)
2D
Ensemble Prediction
System (EPS)
Deterministic water level
forecasts
Water levels (incl. MDT)
Geodetic applications
Currents and transport
Water quality and ecology
3D boundary conditions
Oil dispersal
SAR
MetOcean
3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
Model setup – Network and bathymetry
6/25
Yellow: 1/10° x 1/15° ~ 4 nm x 4 nm
Green: 1/20° x 1/30° ~ 2 nm x 2 nm
Blue: 1/40° x 1/60° ~ 1 nm x 1 nm
Red: 0.75’ x 0.5’ ~ 0.5 nm x 0.5 nm
→ 800 m isobath
→ 50 m isobath
→ 200 m isobath
3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
Model setup – Network optimization
• Transitions in resolution (triangles) outside locations with high flow velocities → more cells, but faster
7/25
3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
Model setup – Barotropic forcing
Open boundary forcing
• Water level elevation imposed at 205 sections:
• Tide (from FES2012; 33 constituents)
• Storm surge (Inverse Barometer Correction)
Surface forcing
• Wind speed and air pressure from:
• HIRLAM7.2 →Arome-Harmonie
• ERA-Interim →ERA5
• ECMWF IFS
• Charnock relation for sea surface roughness (consistent with
meteo model), except:
• Surface current speed taken into account in wind drag relation
Also included
• Tidal potential
• Energy dissipation through generation of internal waves
• Barrier operations (closing of 8 storm surge barriers)
8/25
3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
Model setup – 3D baroclinic model
• 20 equidistant σ-layers (→51 z-layers)
• k-ε turbulence closure model
• Lateral forcing:
• Temperature and salinity from World Ocean Atlas (WOA13)
(As climatological mean monthly fields (0.25° grid, 107 depth levels, steps of 5 m at surface)
• Steric water level contribution
• Heat fluxes computed based on:
• Dew point temperature, air temperature and cloud cover (and wind speed)
• Fresh water discharges (~900):
• Climatology derived from EHYPE
Monthly means derived from 2001-2013
• 7 most important Dutch rivers
• 3 most important German rivers (Ems, Weser, Elbe)
9/25
3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
Model setup – Computational times
• Maximum allowed numerical time step increasing from 120s to 200 s
• With the upgraded flexible resolution grid and increased time step, the model is 4 times faster
Model
Resolution
Comp. time
(min/day)*
Comp. time
(hr/yr)*
Avg. time step
(s)
# nodes
DCSMv6 (WAQUA) 1nm 1.6 10.0 120 859,217
DCSM-FM (1nm ) 4nm-1nm 0.4 2.5 199 373,522
DCSM-FM (0.5nm) 4nm-0.5nm 1.2 7.5 118 629,187
3D DCSM-FM (0.5nm) 4nm-0.5nm 13.0 79 111 629,187
*On 20 CPU cores
(3D ZUNO-DD: ~5 days/year)
Possibilities:
• 2D: Ensemble with 50 members
• 3D: Decadal scale 3D computations
• 3D: Real-time forecasting computations
Combining 2D/3D in one schematization is feasible:
• more resolution,
• much larger domain,
• more vertical resolution
• less computational cost!
10/25
3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
Model results – Water levels
Goodness-of-Fit (in cm) for the year 2014
11/25
RMSE tide (cm) RMSE surge (cm) RMSE total (cm)
ZUNO-DD DCSM-FM % ZUNO-DD DCSM-FM % ZUNO-DD DCSM-FM %
Cadzand 30.5 4.8 -84% 13.1 4.4 -66% 33.2 6.5 -80%
Westkapelle 27.0 5.1 -81% 12.7 4.4 -65% 29.9 6.7 -78%
Haringvliet 10 21.1 4.8 -77% 11.9 4.7 -61% 24.3 6.7 -72%
Hoek van Holland 17.1 5.9 -65% 11.8 5.1 -57% 20.7 7.8 -62%
Scheveningen 19.5 5.2 -73% 12.0 4.8 -60% 22.9 7.1 -69%
IJmuiden Buitenhav. 18.7 5.9 -68% 12.2 5.1 -58% 22.4 7.8 -65%
Average 22.3 5.3 -76% 12.3 4.8 -61% 25.6 7.1 -72%
Huge improvement in skill
3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
Model results – Surface salinity and temperature
12/25
3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
Salinity Temperature
Model results – Surface salinity and temperature
13/25
3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
Salinity Temperature
Model results – Temperature (stratification)
Measurement
Simulation
Stratification (surface minus bottom)
14/25
Sea Surface Temperature
3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
Model results – Current velocity (2D vs. 3D)
15/25
3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
3D (surface)2D
Model results – Current velocity (2D vs. 3D)
16/25
3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
2D 3D (surface)
Current validation
17/25
TNW
HKZ
HKNHKW
3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
ADCP current profiles
Preliminary results
Baltic Sea – Network and bathymetry
18/25
3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
Green: 1/20° x 1/30° ~ 2 nm x 2 nm
Blue: 1/40° x 1/60° ~ 1 nm x 1 nm
Red: 0.75’ x 0.5’ ~ 0.5 nm x 0.5 nm
→ 100 m isobath
→ 50 m isobath
Baltic Sea – Salinity and temperature (preliminary)
3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
19/25
Salinity Temperature
Baltic Sea – Salinity and temperature (preliminary)
3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
20/25
TemperatureSalinity
Baltic Sea – Water levels
3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
21/25
Baltic Sea – Water levels (impact on DCSM-FM)
3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
22/25
No significant impact on water levels in Skagerrak/Kattegat
DCSM-FM + Baltic DCSM-FM only
Baltic Sea – Salinity in 3D DCSM-FM
3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
23/25DCSM-FM only
Baltic Sea – Salinity (exchange with Kattegat)
• Impact on salinity
3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
24/25
Baltic Sea – Salinity (exchange with Kattegat)
• Impact on salinity
3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
25/25
D e l t a r e s – D e l f t S o f t w a r e D a y s – 1 2 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 9
Firmijn Zijl, Julien Groenenboom and Stendert Laan
3D model of the North Sea using Delft3D FM

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DSD-INT 2019 3D model of the North Sea using Delft3D FM-Zijl

  • 1. D e l t a r e s – D e l f t S o f t w a r e D a y s – 1 2 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 9 Firmijn Zijl, Julien Groenenboom and Stendert Laan 3D model of the North Sea using Delft3D FM
  • 2. Contents • Background • Model setup • Results • Ongoing developments o Current validation o Extension with Baltic Sea 3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM 2/25
  • 3. Background - ‘Sea Level Science’ • Models used for official Dutch water level forecasts • Accurate, real-time water level forecasting important for informed discussion on movable barrier closure • D-Flow FM module of the Delft3D Flexible Mesh Suite (Delft3D FM) now available ➢ New model to take advantage of new possibilities: DCSM-FM (DCSM = Dutch Continental Shelf Model) 3/25 3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
  • 4. Background – ‘Environmental Hydrodynamics’ Outside world (e.g. CMEMS): • Increased spatial extent • Higher horizontal resolution • Higher vertical resolution ➢Upgrade required Difference in approach for: • Environmental Hydrodynamics (with 3D transport models) • Sea Level Science (with 2D tide-surge models) Solution: borrow schematization, barotropic forcing and calibration effort from existing 2D models 3D ZUNO(-DD) model 4/25 3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
  • 5. Background – Proposed DCSM-FM schematisations 5/25 DCSM-FM 0.5nm DCSM-FM 100m 2D 3D (+S/T) 2D Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) Deterministic water level forecasts Water levels (incl. MDT) Geodetic applications Currents and transport Water quality and ecology 3D boundary conditions Oil dispersal SAR MetOcean 3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
  • 6. Model setup – Network and bathymetry 6/25 Yellow: 1/10° x 1/15° ~ 4 nm x 4 nm Green: 1/20° x 1/30° ~ 2 nm x 2 nm Blue: 1/40° x 1/60° ~ 1 nm x 1 nm Red: 0.75’ x 0.5’ ~ 0.5 nm x 0.5 nm → 800 m isobath → 50 m isobath → 200 m isobath 3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
  • 7. Model setup – Network optimization • Transitions in resolution (triangles) outside locations with high flow velocities → more cells, but faster 7/25 3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
  • 8. Model setup – Barotropic forcing Open boundary forcing • Water level elevation imposed at 205 sections: • Tide (from FES2012; 33 constituents) • Storm surge (Inverse Barometer Correction) Surface forcing • Wind speed and air pressure from: • HIRLAM7.2 →Arome-Harmonie • ERA-Interim →ERA5 • ECMWF IFS • Charnock relation for sea surface roughness (consistent with meteo model), except: • Surface current speed taken into account in wind drag relation Also included • Tidal potential • Energy dissipation through generation of internal waves • Barrier operations (closing of 8 storm surge barriers) 8/25 3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
  • 9. Model setup – 3D baroclinic model • 20 equidistant σ-layers (→51 z-layers) • k-ε turbulence closure model • Lateral forcing: • Temperature and salinity from World Ocean Atlas (WOA13) (As climatological mean monthly fields (0.25° grid, 107 depth levels, steps of 5 m at surface) • Steric water level contribution • Heat fluxes computed based on: • Dew point temperature, air temperature and cloud cover (and wind speed) • Fresh water discharges (~900): • Climatology derived from EHYPE Monthly means derived from 2001-2013 • 7 most important Dutch rivers • 3 most important German rivers (Ems, Weser, Elbe) 9/25 3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
  • 10. Model setup – Computational times • Maximum allowed numerical time step increasing from 120s to 200 s • With the upgraded flexible resolution grid and increased time step, the model is 4 times faster Model Resolution Comp. time (min/day)* Comp. time (hr/yr)* Avg. time step (s) # nodes DCSMv6 (WAQUA) 1nm 1.6 10.0 120 859,217 DCSM-FM (1nm ) 4nm-1nm 0.4 2.5 199 373,522 DCSM-FM (0.5nm) 4nm-0.5nm 1.2 7.5 118 629,187 3D DCSM-FM (0.5nm) 4nm-0.5nm 13.0 79 111 629,187 *On 20 CPU cores (3D ZUNO-DD: ~5 days/year) Possibilities: • 2D: Ensemble with 50 members • 3D: Decadal scale 3D computations • 3D: Real-time forecasting computations Combining 2D/3D in one schematization is feasible: • more resolution, • much larger domain, • more vertical resolution • less computational cost! 10/25 3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
  • 11. Model results – Water levels Goodness-of-Fit (in cm) for the year 2014 11/25 RMSE tide (cm) RMSE surge (cm) RMSE total (cm) ZUNO-DD DCSM-FM % ZUNO-DD DCSM-FM % ZUNO-DD DCSM-FM % Cadzand 30.5 4.8 -84% 13.1 4.4 -66% 33.2 6.5 -80% Westkapelle 27.0 5.1 -81% 12.7 4.4 -65% 29.9 6.7 -78% Haringvliet 10 21.1 4.8 -77% 11.9 4.7 -61% 24.3 6.7 -72% Hoek van Holland 17.1 5.9 -65% 11.8 5.1 -57% 20.7 7.8 -62% Scheveningen 19.5 5.2 -73% 12.0 4.8 -60% 22.9 7.1 -69% IJmuiden Buitenhav. 18.7 5.9 -68% 12.2 5.1 -58% 22.4 7.8 -65% Average 22.3 5.3 -76% 12.3 4.8 -61% 25.6 7.1 -72% Huge improvement in skill 3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
  • 12. Model results – Surface salinity and temperature 12/25 3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM Salinity Temperature
  • 13. Model results – Surface salinity and temperature 13/25 3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM Salinity Temperature
  • 14. Model results – Temperature (stratification) Measurement Simulation Stratification (surface minus bottom) 14/25 Sea Surface Temperature 3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM
  • 15. Model results – Current velocity (2D vs. 3D) 15/25 3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM 3D (surface)2D
  • 16. Model results – Current velocity (2D vs. 3D) 16/25 3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM 2D 3D (surface)
  • 18. Baltic Sea – Network and bathymetry 18/25 3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM Green: 1/20° x 1/30° ~ 2 nm x 2 nm Blue: 1/40° x 1/60° ~ 1 nm x 1 nm Red: 0.75’ x 0.5’ ~ 0.5 nm x 0.5 nm → 100 m isobath → 50 m isobath
  • 19. Baltic Sea – Salinity and temperature (preliminary) 3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM 19/25 Salinity Temperature
  • 20. Baltic Sea – Salinity and temperature (preliminary) 3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM 20/25 TemperatureSalinity
  • 21. Baltic Sea – Water levels 3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM 21/25
  • 22. Baltic Sea – Water levels (impact on DCSM-FM) 3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM 22/25 No significant impact on water levels in Skagerrak/Kattegat DCSM-FM + Baltic DCSM-FM only
  • 23. Baltic Sea – Salinity in 3D DCSM-FM 3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM 23/25DCSM-FM only
  • 24. Baltic Sea – Salinity (exchange with Kattegat) • Impact on salinity 3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM 24/25
  • 25. Baltic Sea – Salinity (exchange with Kattegat) • Impact on salinity 3DmodeloftheNorthSeausingDelft3DFM 25/25
  • 26. D e l t a r e s – D e l f t S o f t w a r e D a y s – 1 2 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 9 Firmijn Zijl, Julien Groenenboom and Stendert Laan 3D model of the North Sea using Delft3D FM