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DSD-INT 2018 JBAs Experiences Flood forecasting with Delft-FEWS in Vietnam - Cowdell

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Presentation by Matthew Cowdell (JBA Consulting)
at the Delft-FEWS International User Days 2018, during the Delft Software Days - Edition 2018. 7 & 8 November 2018, Delft.

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DSD-INT 2018 JBAs Experiences Flood forecasting with Delft-FEWS in Vietnam - Cowdell

  1. 1. Focusing on my recent flood forecasting experiences in Vietnam Matthew Cowdell matthew.cowdell@jbaconsulting.com JBA Consulting: Past, Present and Future
  2. 2. JBA Consulting – who are we?
  3. 3. JBA Consulting – who are we?
  4. 4. JBA Consulting – who am I? Photo courtesy of Karen Cowdell, mother
  5. 5. Contents • • • • •
  6. 6. Past
  7. 7. Past – How did it all begin? • •
  8. 8. Past - Projects around the world
  9. 9. Present
  10. 10. UK activities – model convergence •
  11. 11. Glounatouig (Stream) Mushera Carrigadroid Inchigeelagh Ballyvourney Bweeng Bottle Hil Gearagh Carraiganimmy Gougane Renaniree (revised) Kill Kilmona Macroom Dripsey Dromcarra Legend Recording Stations Rain Rain (New - Nov2014) River PDMs Dromcarra Macroom Kill Dripsey InniscarraPS_Lat Ovens Kilmona Martin_Lat Gothic WillisonsBr Owen Bishops Curraheen Glasheen Other River network Flow Routing Model Marina Downstream Boundary Waterbodies Healy's Bridge outline River Bride 0 10 205 km Lower Lee, Cork KEYPLAN 1:8,000,000 Bawnafinny Tower Ovens Gothic Inniscarra Healy's Bridge Leemount d/s Leemount u/s Marina Waterworks Weir Inniscarragh 0 2 41 km Forecasting system for River Lee, Ireland
  12. 12. Forecasting System for Pat Lakes, Australia •
  13. 13. Vietnam New forecasting system
  14. 14. Vietnam – flood risk •
  15. 15. Vietnam – flood risk Land and mudslides in mountainous Northern regions Flash flooding in Central regions Large flat floodplains in Southern regions Multiple areas of overtopping and storm surge risk
  16. 16. Vietnam – current approach What do they do now? How do they do it? Why do they need something else?
  17. 17. Vietnam – what do they do now? • 1. Collect data (including checking) 2. Analyse the current situation 3. Run forecasting models and review outputs 4. Discussion between forecasters 5. Create a bulletin 6. Publish the bulletin and notify relevant authorities 7. Continue to monitor the situation and update the bulletin 8. Review the bulletin’s accuracy after the event
  18. 18. Vietnam – how do they do it? • Why do they need something else?
  19. 19. Vietnam - what is the plan? • • World Bank 5 package: Vietnam Managing Natural Hazards Project
  20. 20. Vietnam – who is going to do this?
  21. 21. Vietnam – how is this going to be delivered?
  22. 22. Vietnam – my main activities • • • Models Inland Coastal NAM MIKE11 MARINE hydrological model Reservoir model ROMS SWAN SuWAT* * * * New FEWS model adapter
  23. 23. Vietnam – what have been the challenges so far? • • • • •
  24. 24. Vietnam – personal challenges? • •
  25. 25. Vietnam – personal challenges? •
  26. 26. Vietnam – overcoming the challenges? •
  27. 27. Future With Mystic Matt
  28. 28. Future – what’s next for Vietnam? • • • • March – May 2018 June 2018 – February 2019 March – April 2019 April – September 2019 October 2019 – September 2021 • Kick-Off & Design Workshops • Inception Report • Technical Design Report • Hardware delivery • Implementation CDH • Implementation FSS • Implementation SL • System Integration • Training Preparation • Training • Technology Transfer • System operational testing • Acceptance • Hardware warranty • Technical support • Software updates and maintenance
  29. 29. Future – wider considerations? • • • • •
  30. 30. Thank you for listening Any questions, advice or thoughts? References JBA Consulting website, 2018 (www.jbaconsulting.com) Reuters, 2018 (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-storm-vietnam/vietnam-flood-death-toll-rises-to-27- more-rain-forecast-idUSKBN1KE0CL) P118783, 2018 (http://projects.worldbank.org/P118783/vietnam-managing-natural-hazards- project?lang=en&tab=overview)

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