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DSD-INT 2018 Input bathymetry as a source of uncertainty of a coastal early warning system - case Emilia-Romagna - Unguendoli

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Presentation by Silvia Unguendoli, Arpae SIMC Emilia-Romagna, Italy at the XBeach User Day 2018, during Delft Software Days - Edition 2018. Thursday, 15 November 2018, Delft.

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DSD-INT 2018 Input bathymetry as a source of uncertainty of a coastal early warning system - case Emilia-Romagna - Unguendoli

  1. 1. THE INPUT BATHYMETRY AS A SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY OF A COASTAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEM: THE CASE OF THE EMILIA-ROMAGNA REGION (ITALY) Silvia Unguendoli, Andrea Valentini, Lidia Bressan & Tiziana Paccagnella sunguendoli@arpae.it, Arpae SIMC Emilia-Romagna, Italy XBEACH USER DAY 2018 Thursday, 15 November 2018, Delft
  2. 2. THE MICORE PROJECT Morphological Impacts and COastal Risks induced by Extreme storm events COASTAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEM Hydro-Meteo-Climate Service of Arpae Emilia-Romagna (Arpae-SIMC) BACKGROUND Prediction of MORPHOLOGICAL IMPACTS due to marine storm events in support of civil protection mitigation strategies. www.micore.eu ITALIAN CASE-STUDY SITE
  3. 3. SWAN-MEDITARE ADRIA-ROMS OPERATIONAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEM XBEACH COSMO I7 7 km resolution www.cosmo-model.org 25 km Mediterranean Sea 8 km Italian Region 800m Emilia-Romagna Regular grid resolution of 2 km
  4. 4. THE MORPHOLOGICAL MODEL XBEACH MODEL Mono-dimensional 8 Sites 22 Cross-shore Sections Coastal Storm Risk Harley, M. D., Valentini, A., Armaroli, C., Perini, L., Calabrese, L., and Ciavola, P.: Can an early-warning system help minimize the impacts of coastal storms? A case study of the 2012 Halloween storm, northern Italy, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 209–222. http://geo.regione.emilia-romagna.it/schede/micore/ THE MODEL Daily 3-day forecast of coastal storm hazard FORECASTS
  5. 5. MODELING CHAIN UNCERTAINTIES More frequently used New approach Uncertainty viewpoint WHY NOT? INPUT DATA ENSEMBLE FORECASTING
  6. 6. THE ISSUE UP-TO-DATE SURVEY OF THE BEACH PROFILES REGIONAL PLANNING Complex planning Not always easy to make Measuring instruments Resources
  7. 7. THE ER COASTAL TOPO-BATHYMETRICAL NETWORK 251 CROSS-SHORE SECTIONS SURVEYS : 1984 > 1993 > 2000 > 2006 > 2012
  8. 8. For Morpho-Dynamical Modeling, to what extent does THE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE INPUT BEACH MORPHOLOGY AFFECT RESULTS considering that, in general, the uncertainty of the meteorological component is supposed to be predominant? CAN A “NOT UP-TO-DATE” BEACH PROFILE AFFECT RESULTS? THE SCOPE
  9. 9. METEOROLOGICAL ENSEMBLE SYSTEM MORPHOLOGICAL ENSEMBLE SYSTEM 16 different METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COSMO-LEPS System (probabilistic forecast) Same beach profile (2015) for all simulations COSMO- LEPS XBEACH SWAN ROMS 16 METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS 16 members 16 runs 16 runs 16 runs COSMO XBEACH SWAN ROMS 5 BEACH PROFILES Single run Single run Single run 5 runs One Meteorological condition Deterministic run of COSMO-LEPS 5 DIFFERENT BEACH PROFILES measured in 2006,2009,2010,2012,2015 (5 simulations) MODEL SET-UP
  10. 10. Impulsive event THE SELECTED STORMS Date Max Wave Height (m) Max Sea Level (m) Energy (m2h) Wind 20 November 2015 3.30 0.58 120.45 North-East 27 February 2016 2.30 0.80 61.25 South-East Moderate and “smooth” event
  11. 11. METEOROLOGICAL Ensemble System MORPHOLOGICAL Ensemble System SPREAD Comparison RESULTS (END OF THE SIMULATION)
  12. 12. SHORELINE EVOLUTION RUNUP ERODED VOLUMES SHORELINE EVOLUTION RUNUP ERODED VOLUMES METEOROLOGICAL Ensemble System MORPHOLOGICAL Ensemble System RESULTS (TIME EVOLUTION)
  13. 13. CONCLUSIONS The study case aims at investigating the forecasts uncertainty related to the INPUT BATHYMETRY The meteorological and morphological uncertainties are COMPARABLE and then NOT NEGLIGIBLE to have a complete description of the uncertainties that propagates in the entire modeling chain Results suggest that a WIDER INVESTIGATION is useful, to extend the analysis to different beach profiles (e.g. steeper profiles, protected beach) FUTURE DEVELOPMENT: the possibility to improve the forecasting system performance by introducing a MORPHOLOGICAL ENSEMBLE based on the input bathymetry. The survey of both WINTER and SUMMER BEACH PROFILE can be a starting-point to a more accurate representation of the bathymetry for the warning system
  14. 14. THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION SILVIA UNGUENDOLI sunguendoli@arpae.it
  15. 15. DIFFERENT MORPHOLOGICAL INPUT FOR XBEACH THE EXCEPTION BEACH PROFILE MEASURED IN 2009
  16. 16. ANOTHER BEACH PROFILE, SAME SITUATION
  17. 17. METEOROLOGICAL Ensemble System MORPHOLOGICAL Ensemble System SPREAD Comparison RESULTS (+96h)
  18. 18. SHORELINE EVOLUTION RUNUP ERODED VOLUMES SHORELINE EVOLUTION RUNUP ERODED VOLUMES METEOROLOGICAL Ensemble System MORPHOLOGICAL Ensemble System RESULTS TIME EVOLUTION
  19. 19. 10m wind forecast of COSMO (03 utc 22/11/2015)
  20. 20. Daily 3-day forecast of coastal storm hazard STORM IMPACT INDICATOR SII THE EMILIA-ROMAGNA EARLY WARNING SYSTEM SCW Safe Corridor Width Measure of the amount of dry beach available between the dune foot and waterline for safe passage by beach users BWD Building Waterline Distance Measure of the amount of dry beach available between the seaward edge of a building and the model derived waterline FORECASTS

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