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DSD-INT 2018 Improvement of hazard and damage estimations from tropical cyclones using satellite data - Nederhoff

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Presentation by Kees Nederhoff (Deltares) at the Data Science Symposium 2018, during Delft Software Days - Edition 2018. Thursday 15 November 2018, Delft.

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DSD-INT 2018 Improvement of hazard and damage estimations from tropical cyclones using satellite data - Nederhoff

  1. 1. Improvement of hazard and damage estimations from tropical cyclones using satellite data Team involved: Kees Nederhoff, Alessio Giardino, Maarten van Ormondt & Deepak Vatvani 15 November 2018
  2. 2. Contents 1. Introduction 2. Data analysis: TC size 3. Results: TC hazard estimate 4. Next steps and conclusions 15 November 2018
  3. 3. 1. Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most destructive natural hazards worldwide 15 November 2018 • Direct costs (economic) & social cost (lose of life)
  4. 4. 1. Satellite-derived estimates of intensity & size 15 November 2018
  5. 5. 2. Holland wind profile 15 November 2018
  6. 6. 2. Large spread in observations for size 15 November 2018
  7. 7. 2. With a big effect on hazard computation 15 November 2018
  8. 8. 2. TC size is not normally distributed! 15 November 2018
  9. 9. 2. TC size can be described with lognormal 15 November 2018
  10. 10. Side note: what is lognormal? • A lognormal (log-normal or Galton) distribution is a probability distribution with a normally distributed logarithm. • Skewed distributions with all-positive values often fit this type of distribution. 15 November 2018
  11. 11. 2. Coefficients lognormal R35: data 15 November 2018
  12. 12. 2. Coefficients lognormal R35: fitted 15 November 2018
  13. 13. 2. Lognormal fit for RMW 15 November 2018
  14. 14. 2. Lognormal fit for R35 15 November 2018
  15. 15. 3. Why is a good estimate of wind needed? 15 November 2018 Holland: calibrated with found relations Holland: uncalibrated • Maximum computed SWAN wave height during Hurricane Ike • Uncalibrated wind model results in overestimation! longitude [∘] longitude [∘] latitude[∘]
  16. 16. 3. Validation based on QSCAT-R 15 November 2018
  17. 17. 3. Validation 10 years data (>800 cyclones) 15 November 2018
  18. 18. 4. Next step: including rainfall 15 November 2018 • Rainfall Harvey: >100 cm in 4 days • Yearly rainfall in Netherlands: 90 cm
  19. 19. 4. Conclusions 1. Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most destructive natural hazards worldwide due to wind damage and flooding 2. TC size is stochastic and can be described with a lognormal distribution while varying the coefficients with wind speed and latitude 3. Parametric wind models like Holland can be used to simulate TCs wind and pressure fields. When using the realistic estimates for TC size. 4. Flooding impacts due to TCs is not just due to storm surge. Rainfall is also of importance (e.g. Harvey)!  next step Work submitted to Monthly Weather Review. ‘Estimates of tropical cyclone geometry parameters based on best track data’. 15 November 2018
  20. 20. Improvement of hazard and damage estimations from tropical cyclones using satellite data Team involved: Kees Nederhoff, Alessio Giardino, Maarten van Ormondt & Deepak Vatvani 15 November 2018

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