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From
Early Warning
to Early Action
Maarten van Aalst
Delft Software Days
7 November 2018
Hurricane Harvey (2017)
(US$ 125 miljard)
3 times more likely due to climate change
Flooding in Houston, Texas
Heat in Western Europe
(2017)
2 to 10 times more likely due to climate change
Forest fires related to heat in Portugal
Typhoon Haiyan
(Philippines, 2013)
6000 casualties, 93% by storm surge
– what to prepare for?
Bosbranden door hitte in Por...
Which forecasts are useful
for humanitarian decisions?
What kind of early actions should be taken in the
Short-term? Long-...
Somalia 2011
Our vision
Present situation
Forecast-based Financing
Key components of Forecast-based Financing:
Matching forecasts and risks Automatic allocation of funds
Selection
of Action...
The implementation mechanism:
7 steps from analysis to activation
12
Risk
assessments
Identification
of Forecasts
Definiti...
Floods in Uganda
GloFAS in Uganda
Water and sanitation
Drainage
Threshold: How do you decide?
Considerations
Possible actions
Number of
thresholds
Cost of action and
acting in vain
Losse...
Pilot project: Bangladesh
Floods 2017
18
• Bangladesh is extremely prone to disasters
due to its geophysical setting. The ...
Pilot project: Bangladesh
Floods 2017 Bogra
19
5-day forecast
Thresholds exceeded for
Rainfall in Kamalpur,
Kazla, Bhandar...
Pilot project: Bangladesh
Floods 2017 Bogra
20
Community
Trigger
reached
Cash
distributed
Ahead of
flood peak
Duration
of ...
Pilot project: Bangladesh
Floods 2017 Bogra
21
Alefa Katun, 40
I am so grateful for the
cash.
I bought fodder for my
cows ...
Critical success factors:
ownership and
communication
from local villages … … to the White House
Serious Games about rising risks
… and with Lead Authors of the Intergovernment...
Vietnam
Bangladesh
Peru
Mozambique
Mali
Uganda
Ecuador
Ethiopia
Kenya
Malawi
Togo
Niger
Zambia
Philippines
Mongolia
Our pa...
Next steps: SCALE… plus:
And identifying the right balance
between structural measures,
preparedness, forecast-based
actio...
Maarten van Aalst
vanaalst@climatecentre.org
www.climatecentre.org
@mkvaalst
@RCClimate
DSD-INT 2018 From early warning to early action - Van Aalst
DSD-INT 2018 From early warning to early action - Van Aalst
DSD-INT 2018 From early warning to early action - Van Aalst
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DSD-INT 2018 From early warning to early action - Van Aalst

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Presentation by Maarten van Aalst (Red Cross, Climate Center) at the Delft-FEWS International User Days 2018, during the Delft Software Days - Edition 2018. 7 & 8 November 2018, Delft.

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DSD-INT 2018 From early warning to early action - Van Aalst

  1. 1. From Early Warning to Early Action Maarten van Aalst Delft Software Days 7 November 2018
  2. 2. Hurricane Harvey (2017) (US$ 125 miljard) 3 times more likely due to climate change Flooding in Houston, Texas
  3. 3. Heat in Western Europe (2017) 2 to 10 times more likely due to climate change Forest fires related to heat in Portugal
  4. 4. Typhoon Haiyan (Philippines, 2013) 6000 casualties, 93% by storm surge – what to prepare for? Bosbranden door hitte in Portugal
  5. 5. Which forecasts are useful for humanitarian decisions? What kind of early actions should be taken in the Short-term? Long-term?Medium-term?
  6. 6. Somalia 2011
  7. 7. Our vision Present situation Forecast-based Financing
  8. 8. Key components of Forecast-based Financing: Matching forecasts and risks Automatic allocation of funds Selection of Actions Financing MechanismTriggers Early Action Protocol (EAP) 11 Reducing the impact
  9. 9. The implementation mechanism: 7 steps from analysis to activation 12 Risk assessments Identification of Forecasts Definition of Impact Levels Selecting early actions Development of the EAP Validation of the EAP Monitoring of Forecasts If the danger level IS exceeded, early actions are implemented. If the danger level IS NOT exceeded, monitoring continues. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
  10. 10. Floods in Uganda
  11. 11. GloFAS in Uganda
  12. 12. Water and sanitation
  13. 13. Drainage
  14. 14. Threshold: How do you decide? Considerations Possible actions Number of thresholds Cost of action and acting in vain Losses averted due to action Lead time of forecast Funding available How often you act in vain How often you take worthy action
  15. 15. Pilot project: Bangladesh Floods 2017 18 • Bangladesh is extremely prone to disasters due to its geophysical setting. The country is low‐lying and flat with huge inland water bodies, including some of the biggest rivers in the world. • Flooding is an annual recurring event. While the population, knows how to deal with the impact of those annual rainfalls to some extent, in some years the floods are so extreme that millions of households are severely affected. • The floods impact water and sanitation, and increase the risk of spreading diseases. Many families are forced to sell their livestock in order to pay for the evacuation, rations and healthcare. Bogra 1039 families 4 communities
  16. 16. Pilot project: Bangladesh Floods 2017 Bogra 19 5-day forecast Thresholds exceeded for Rainfall in Kamalpur, Kazla, Bhandarbari 3, 6/7 Activation of EAP Early warning messages issued to the population 1039 families receive cash transfers of 5000 Taka
  17. 17. Pilot project: Bangladesh Floods 2017 Bogra 20 Community Trigger reached Cash distributed Ahead of flood peak Duration of flood above DL Peak above danger level Kamalpur 04 July 07 July 7 days 14 days 98 cm Bhandarbari 6&7 06 July 10 July 4 days 10 days 55 cm Kazla 06 July 08 July 5 days 5.5 days 31 cm Bhandarbari 3 09 July 11 July 3 days 4 days 15 cm
  18. 18. Pilot project: Bangladesh Floods 2017 Bogra 21 Alefa Katun, 40 I am so grateful for the cash. I bought fodder for my cows and could evacuate them. Without the cash, I would have had to sell them, but they are good cows, they deliver good milk and are very healthy. Impact Evaluation • Rate of families who lost livestock 40% lower in FbF communities • Rate of families who had to take up a high- interest loan 50% lower in FbF communities
  19. 19. Critical success factors: ownership and communication
  20. 20. from local villages … … to the White House Serious Games about rising risks … and with Lead Authors of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
  21. 21. Vietnam Bangladesh Peru Mozambique Mali Uganda Ecuador Ethiopia Kenya Malawi Togo Niger Zambia Philippines Mongolia Our partners: American Red Cross, Australian Red Cross, Belgian Red Cross, British Red Cross, Danish Red Cross, German Red Cross, Finnish Red Cross, Netherlands Red Cross, the Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre, WFP, FAO, WMO, OCHA, Welthungerhilfe, GFDRR, ODI and research initiatives (WISER, SHEAR; FATHUM, ForPAC) Indonesia Solomon Islands Haiti Tanzania Developing Early Action Protocol, to be eligible for FbA by the DREF Research, advocacy and other FbF component Rapid growth Nepal Sudan Zimbabwe Georgia Armenia Initiating potential projects • 20+ countries • New funding instruments • New partnerships
  22. 22. Next steps: SCALE… plus: And identifying the right balance between structural measures, preparedness, forecast-based action and enhanced response Towards more impact forecasting
  23. 23. Maarten van Aalst vanaalst@climatecentre.org www.climatecentre.org @mkvaalst @RCClimate

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