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DSD-INT 2018 - Climate Change Service Agricultural project - Weerts

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Presentation by Albrecht Weerts (Deltares) at the wflow User Day 2018, during Delft Software Days - Edition 2018. Friday 09 November 2018, Delft.

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DSD-INT 2018 - Climate Change Service Agricultural project - Weerts

  1. 1. C l i m a t e C h a n g e S e r v i c e Climate Change C3S422Lot1WEnR – Global Agriculture
  2. 2. Climate Change 21 November 2018 I m a g i n e t h e r i s k s …
  3. 3. Climate Change … . o f w a t e r s h o r t a g e 21 november 2018 ‘Water is the most important ingredient of our products and essential for our operations.’ Source: gardian.co.uk
  4. 4. Climate Change 21 November 2018 I m a g i n e f u t u r e c h a n g e … From Ward et al. 2010, Env. Res. Lett. 5, 044011: Costs of climate change adaptation
  5. 5. Climate Change W a t e r i n S D G s
  6. 6. Climate Change • Water is important for agriculture • Use hydrological models to derive ECVs and impact indicators – PCRGLOBWB (UU) => ECVs & Indicators at ~10km • Takes into account water demand and groundwater – wflow_sbm (Deltares) => ECVs at ~1km scale (between 60N-40S) R a t i o n a l e Schematic PCRGLOBWB model (Utrecht University) (van Beek/Bierkens, 2009)
  7. 7. Climate Change • ECVs: – River discharge, actual evapotranspiration, surface soil moisture, groundwater recharge • Impact Indicators: – River discharge anomaly, soil moisture deficit index, evapotranspiration deficit Index, groundwater table declining trend E C V s & I m p a c t I n d i c a t o r s
  8. 8. Climate Change W a t e r i n G l o b a l a g r i c u l t u r e – h i s t . , N R T & f o r e c a s t e d resolution E2O forcing (0.25x0.25) ERA5L forcing (0.1x0.1) ERA5L Initialization (0.1x0.1) ECMWF S5 seasonal forecasts (1.0x1.0) Due date Tier 1 - PCRGLOBWB 0.083 X 15-10-2018 Tier 2 – PCRGLOBWB 0.0833 X February 2019 (expected medio November 2018) Tier 3 – wflow_sbm (between 60N-40S) 0.00833 X February 2019 Tier 4 - PCRGLOBWB 0.0833 X X February 2019
  9. 9. Climate Change W a t e r i n G l o b a l a g r i c u l t u r e – c l i m a t e s c a l e resolution ISIMIP forcing (0.25x0.25) ISIMIP scenario RCPP8.5 Due date Tier 1 - PCRGLOBWB 0.083 X 31-10-2018 Tier 2 – PCRGLOBWB 0.0833 X February 2019
  10. 10. Climate Change C o u p l i n g t o a g r o u n d w a t e r m o d e l ( M O D F L O W ) - PCR-GLOBWB does not calculate groundwater heads and dynamics. We used a Global MODFLOW model to calculate heads. - Input to MODFLOW: discharge/surface water levels, groundwater recharge & abstraction - Still offline coupling. Monthly time step. Two layers in the MODFLOW model: - Top layer: influenced by surface water levels and groundwater recharge - Bottom layer: origin of groundwater abstraction MODFLOW layers (Sgw) S1 & S2 of PCR- GLOBWB surface water level, recharge & abstraction 21 november 2018
  11. 11. Climate Change a n i n v i s i b l e b u t i n d i s p e n s a b l e r e s o u r c e •Worldwide, 2.5 billion people depend solely on groundwater resources to satisfy their basic daily water needs (UNESCO, 2012). Utrecht University Groundwater = drinking water to at least 50% of the global population (FAO, 2010).
  12. 12. Climate Change a n i n v i s i b l e b u t i n d i s p e n s a b l e r e s o u r c e •Groundwater covers 40% of industrial needs at world level Groundwater covers 20% of agricultural needs at world level Utrecht University Source: UN-IGRAGC Source: UN-IGRAGC
  13. 13. Climate Change 21 November 2018 G r o u n d w a t e r t a b l e d e c l i n i n g t r e n d ( G T D T )
  14. 14. Climate Change E x a m p l e a p p l i c a t i o n Global scale indicators of groundwater related risks and sustainable groundwater use under current and past climate and socio-economic conditions (to be presented online on WRI’s Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas).
  15. 15. Climate Change Seasonal forecasting: water shortage? Example of how seasonal water shortage forecasting may be visualised E x a m p l e a p p l i c a t i o n
  16. 16. Climate Change Early warnings of a water crisis in South Africa Drought in Madagascar
  17. 17. Climate Change P C R G L O B - W B i n w f l o w • Hydrological modelling concept pcrglob-wb added to wflow • https://github.com/UU-Hydro/PCR-GLOBWB_model (01-01-2016) • Different pcrglob-wb modules changed as little as possible: • landSurface, landCover, groundwater, routing etc. • and thus nested objects: self.landSurface.storUpp000005_forest • ini file: • wflow and pcrglob-wb merged (many options in pcrglob-wb!) • cold or warm states (*.map) provided in ini file • Meteo (forcing) should be the same as wflow model grid 21 november 2018
  18. 18. Climate Change P C R G L O B - W B i n w f l o w
  19. 19. Climate Change • Lots of useful data is being produced for water & agricultural assessment studies worldwide • Data will be available around March 2019 • Data will be published on the climate data store (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu) wflow_pcrglobwb: • 53 clones available (setup is available) • Not yet sure about license of the parameters maps (tbc) • If possible we will make the clones/wflow setup available • Contact: Albrecht Weerts (albrecht.weerts@deltares.nl, +31620332696) P C R G L O B - W B i n w f l o w

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