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DSD-INT 2018 An Engineering Approach to construction of a Storm Surge Model for the Puget Sound, WA, USA - Elias

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Presentation by Edwin Elias, Deltares USA, Inc., USA, at the Delft3D - User Days (Day 2: Hydrodynamics), during Delft Software Days - Edition 2018. Tuesday, 13 November 2018, Delft.

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DSD-INT 2018 An Engineering Approach to construction of a Storm Surge Model for the Puget Sound, WA, USA - Elias

  1. 1. An engineering approach to construction of the Puget Sound Storm Surge Model (PS Cosmos). Edwin Elias Deltares USA Edwin Elias USGS Andrew Stevens, Eric Grossman, Li Erikson, … Deltares Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea, Robert Mc Call, …
  2. 2. An Engineering Approach ... Academic Include all processes, and if it doesn’t work we add some more.. All models are wrong, but some are useful. (George Box, 1979) Consultant Keep it simple. If it does the job, it works. Our Approach Let’s start simple and see how far we get...
  3. 3. The Puget Sound; Location Puget Sound Pacific Ocean Canada USA USA Canada Overview of the Salish Sea 100 miles 100miles
  4. 4. The Puget Sound; Location Puget Sound Pacific Ocean Canada USA USA Canada Overview of the Salish Sea 12 miles 1.5 miles 3.0 miles
  5. 5. The Puget Sound; Location USA Canada Seattle
  6. 6. The Puget Sound; Location USA Canada Nisqually delta
  7. 7. The Puget Sound; Location USA Canada Nisqualy delta Skagit
  8. 8. The Puget Sound Effects of Urbanization Large River Delta Restoration Elwha River Restoration FloodingPuget Sound Seattle Olympia
  9. 9. PS-CosMos; Goals • Implement model to robustly assess the impacts of climate change on Puget Sound shorelines at a resolution suitable for coastal decision makers • Include all the relevant factors that affect flooding: tides, storm surge, waves, river flow, vertical land motion, coastal change • Include best available climate change and sea-level rise projections • Produce a web-based tool to make the data easily accessible and useable
  10. 10. PS-CosMos; Goals • Implement model to robustly assess the impacts of climate change on Puget Sound shorelines at a resolution suitable for coastal decision makers • Include all the relevant factors that affect flooding: tides, storm surge, waves, river flow, vertical land motion, coastal change Wave height sea level rise (SLR) tide difference seasonal effects storm surge river discharge wave set-up & run-up 1.0 m 3.0 m 0.3 m 1.0 m 0.5 m 1.0 m + MSL (datum) static dynamic VLM
  11. 11. PS-CosMos - Framework GCMs & WW3 D-Flow FM+SWAN D-Flow FM+ SWAN+XBeach XBeach
  12. 12. Oakland Marina, King Tide + 125 cm SLR PS-CoSMoS, OCOF Viewer Include all the relevant factors…
  13. 13. Oakland Marina, 100 Year Storm + 125 cm SLR PS-CoSMoS, OCOF Viewer Include all the relevant factors…
  14. 14. Oakland Marina, 100 Year Storm + 125 cm SLR PS-CoSMoS, OCOF Viewer Include all the relevant factors… Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/coastal_processes/cosmos/index. html Our Coast - Our Future (OCOF) Project http://data.prbo.org/apps/ocof/ San Francisco Bay CoNED DEM http://topotools.cr.usgs.gov/topobathy_viewer/
  15. 15. Delft3D 4 or Delft3D FM? Our first Delft3 Model; • built in 2007 • 139520 grid cells (42558 active) • Calibrated and Validated on “waterlevels”? • runs in 2Dh and 3D
  16. 16. Delft3D 4 or Delft3D FM? Model domains based on Delft3D 4 curvilinear grid of Salish Sea (~200,000 grid cells) 1 Limitations • Run time • Cannot add “small connections” • No ocean domain • Poor resolution in upper Puget Sound • Small grid cells in high flow areas
  17. 17. Salish Sea Model • Grid covers all of Salish Sea and adjacent ocean. Oceanic boundary forced with global tide model (FES, 2012) • Grid resolution varies between ocean (~1 km) and inland waters (~150 m) with over 400,000 nodes • Model includes mean daily discharge of 24 US rivers and the Fraser River in Canada • Water levels without atmospheric forcing include non-tidal residual measured at Neah Bay (NB). • All water levels measured relative to NAVD88 for future flood forecasting.
  18. 18. • Bathymetry, high resolution NOAA, USGS DEMs • Model includes mean daily discharge of 24 US rivers and the Fraser River in Canada • Water levels without atmospheric forcing include non-tidal residual measured at Neah Bay (NB). • Water levels in NAVD88 for flood forecasting. Salish Sea D-Flow FM Model Details USGS CoNED New 1m DEM
  19. 19. Model Results; Water Levels Harmonic Components Similar (slightly better) results were obtained with Manning
  20. 20. Harmonic constituents Model Results; Water Levels Harmonic Components
  21. 21. Model Results; Water Levels
  22. 22. Model Results; Water Levels
  23. 23. Model Results; Water Levels
  24. 24. Model Validation: Water Levels Initial Findings • Density differences between ocean and inland waters affect local mean sea level • Application of uniform salinity leads to bias (~0.5 m at Tacoma) in simulated water levels Model Setup and Sensitivity
  25. 25. Ongoing research; Simulation of non-tidal residuals NTR Magnitude (m) • Timing of NTRs well- represented using Meteo forcing. • Magnitude of large NTRs under-predicted using Meteo forcing • Interesting spatial variability in predicted NTR magnitude • Map shows maximum magnitude of NTR between Feb 10 – Feb 24. Calculated by subtracting tide-only simulation from simulation with full meteo forcing
  26. 26. November 2009 Ongoing research; Additional water level measurements for model validation (including real-time data)
  27. 27. November 2009 • Runup and inundation measurements through video imagery. Video camera installed on Whidbey Isl, May 2018 https://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/whidbey/index.html Ongoing research; Runup and inundation measurements through video imagery.
  28. 28. Summary & Conclusions “All models are wrong, but some are useful” • Delft3D FM allows us to construct an “engineering model” for the Salish Sea. • Start simple add complexity later; seems like a reasonable approach. Allows us to: • test sensitivity to processes. • Identify large impact of density on water levels. • Identify major data gaps. • 2Dh Salish Sea model is capable of reproducing water levels • It is not a “full” hydrodynamic model! 3D processes are important for flow.
  29. 29. Summary & Conclusions Bellingham, Jan 2018 USGS PS-CoSMoS walrus.wr.usgs.gov/coastal_processes/cosmos/puget USGS CoSMoS (California) walrus.wr.usgs.gov/coastal_processes/cosmos/ www.ourcoastourfuture.org pubs.usgs.gov/of/2009/1073/ USGS Climate Change Research in Puget Sound Estuaries walrus.wr.usgs.gov/climate-change/lowNRG.html Edwin Elias epelias@usgs.gov Eric Grossman egrossman@usgs.gov For more information: Thanks to Deltares and the Delft3D FM developers for giving us the opportunity to be part of the beta testing team.

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