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Improved Marine Meteorological Services

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By Long Jiang
UNICEF China
http://www.unicef.cn/en/

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
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Improved Marine Meteorological Services

  1. 1. Long Jiang UNICEF China http://www.unicef.cn/en/ ljiang@unicef.org
  2. 2. Outline 1. Sustained and emerging requirements 2. Global Agendas 3. Improved Marine Meteorological Services (MMS) 4. Way forward
  3. 3. Sustained and emerging requirements Daily life Shipping, fishing, tourism… DRR Food Security Climate Change …
  4. 4. Sustained and emerging requirements
  5. 5. Sustained and emerging requirements
  6. 6. Sustained and emerging requirements - DRR
  7. 7. Sustained and emerging requirements – DRR
  8. 8. Sustained and emerging requirements – Food security  By 2050, catches of main fish species are expected to decline by up to 40% in the tropics, where livelihoods, food and nutrition security strongly depend on the fisheries sector.  FAO estimates that agricultural production must rise by about 60% by 2050 in order to feed a larger population. Climate change is putting this objective at risk.
  9. 9. Sustained and emerging requirements – Climate Change
  10. 10. Marine and Maritime safety Marine & coastal environment Climate, seasonal & weather forecasting Marine Resources
  11. 11. Outline 1. Sustained and emerging requirements 2. Global Agendas 3. Improved Marine Meteorological Services (MMS) 4. Way forward
  12. 12. Global Agendas – SDGs
  13. 13. Improved MSS  Global Agenda – SFDRR
  14. 14. Global Agenda – Paris Agreement  Reaffirm the goal of limiting global temperature increase well below 2 degrees Celsius, while urging efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees;  Establish binding commitments by all parties to make “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs), and to pursue domestic measures aimed at achieving them;  Commit all countries to report regularly on their emissions and “progress made in implementing and achieving” their NDCs, and to undergo international review;  Commit all countries to submit new NDCs every five years, with the clear expectation that they will “represent a progression” beyond previous ones;
  15. 15. Global Agendas – Paris Agreement (Cont’d)  Reaffirm the binding obligations of developed countries under the UNFCCC to support the efforts of developing countries, while for the first time encouraging voluntary contributions by developing countries too;  Extend the current goal of mobilizing $100 billion a year in support by 2020 through 2025, with a new, higher goal to be set for the period after 2025;  Extend a mechanism to address “loss and damage” resulting from climate change, which explicitly will not “involve or provide a basis for any liability or compensation;”  Require parties engaging in international emissions trading to avoid “double counting;” and  Call for a new mechanism, similar to the Clean Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol, enabling emission reductions in one country to be counted toward another country’s NDC.
  16. 16. Outline  Sustained and emerging requirements  Global Agendas Improved Marine Meteorological Services (MMS)  Way forward
  17. 17. Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology IOC programmes - GOOS, IODE, GLOSS, Tsunami WS, ICAM, etc. WMO programmes- WWW, Meteo services, WCRP, GAW, etc. JCOMM
  18. 18. JCOMM strategic role Science & Technology, Innovation and capacity building JCOMM coordination: real time observations, meteo-marine and ocean forecasts, data management and ocean data archives IOC-WMO Member States ocean information needs for marine knowledge and sustainable development
  19. 19. JCOMM: the organization Observation Program Area Ship of Observations Team Data Buoy Cooperation Panel ARGO coordination GLOSS JCOMMOPS Data Management Program Area Data Management Practices Marine climatology Services and Forecast Systems Program Area Marine Safety Services Waves and coastal hazards Operational Ocean Forecasting Expert Team of sea ice
  20. 20. Observational outcomes Operational Ocean Forecasting Systems (e.g., Waves, Storm Surges, Sea Ice, SST, ocean circ., etc.) Ocean Climate projections nd assessments (e.g., Waves, Storm Surges, Sea Ice, SST, etc.) DownstreamServices (e.g.,MSI/GMDSS,MPERSS,SAR,DRR,etc.) InsituandspaceObservations New understanding of ocean processes and climate Observations need to be Integrated in value-added products such as forecasts, analyses, Projections Downstream services are required to customize the value-added Products to specific users Observations should be Collected with well defined Science-based and International procotols To support the value-added chain
  21. 21. InsituandspaceObservations Operational Ocean Forecasting System (GDPFS for Ocean) (e.g., Waves, Storm Surges, Sea Ice, SST, ocean circ., etc.) Ocean Climate (e.g., Waves, Storm Surges, Sea Ice, SST, etc.) Services (e.g.,MSI/GMDSS,MPERSS,SAR,DRR,etc.) Users IMO and IHO ICS Oil and Gas Industry Fisheries Etc. (IOC/WMO/UNEP GOOS)
  22. 22. World Weather Watch
  23. 23. Maritime Safety Information (MSI)  JCOMM Expert Team on Maritime Safety Services (ETMSS)  Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS, +IMO+IHO)  World-Wide Met-ocean Information and Warnings Service (WWMIWS) METAREA/NAVAREA  Joint IMO/IHO/WMO Manual on Maritime Safety Information  WMO Manual on Marine Meteorological Services (WMO-No.558 & WMO-No.471)
  24. 24. DBCP(DriftingBuoyNetwork) Status (April 2016) Recent Achievements Foci for the Next Year • 1522 drifting buoys providing data to the GTS • 11 countries contributing • 44% of drifters report data to the GTS in less than 60min • Increase the number of drifters with air pressure measurements • Improve the drifter density distribution coverage • Improve the data timeliness of drifting buoys to the GTS • 100% of the drifting buoys are reporting data on the GTS in BUFR format • 57% of the drifters are providing Barometric Pressure data to the GTS • KPIs for drifting buoy network are finalized and are reported monthly KPI: Key Performance Indicator
  25. 25. DBCP(MooredBuoyNetwork) Status (April 2016) • 412 moored buoys providing data to the GTS • 11 countries operating moored buoys • 83% of the coastal/national moored buoys provide wave measurements to the GTS • Moored buoy metadata is collected in a common format and available to the community • KPIs are finalized for coastal/national MB and reported monthly • 35% of Moored buoys (Tropical and Coastal/National MB) report data on the GTS in BUFR format Recent Achievements Foci for the Next Year • Get the entire moored buoy network real- time data in BUFR TM315008 format to the GTS • Integrate the moored buoy metadata system into the new JCOMMOPS web tool
  26. 26. ShipObservationsTeam-VOS Status (April 2016) Recent Achievements Foci for the Next Year • European joint AWS project validated: 400 new automated stations will be produced and installed shortly • “Third Party Class”: More active ships without recruitment by a national weather agency • Meeting of international PMOs in Chile to foster cooperation • Finalize transition to table driven code (BUFR) on GTS • Harmonize with other panels in need of volunteer ships • Review metadata requirements (structure, data centre) • Migrate to unique ID scheme • ~2000 operational ships • ~240 automated (AWS), ~440 high-quality (VOSClim) • 25 active countries • Coverage depends mainly on existence of shipping lines • ~20 ASAP upper-air stations • All VOSClim KPIs met (# ships, # observations, # suspects)
  27. 27. Argo Status (April 2016) • 3829 Operational Floats • 29 active countries • Some flat/declining national contributions • Progress for Europe • 10000 obs/month (70% of highest quality) • 85% obs. within 24h • G7 Science Ministers Statement • Design reviewed (initial 3200 to global 3800) • Good coverage (~70%) – I.O. to progress. P.O. getting old. • 1+ paper per day logged • Global ocean heat gain observed with unprecedented accuracy Recent Achievements Foci for the Next Year • Proj: max to 4000 then degradation • BGC (900) to be funded (cost x2) • Deep Array and regional enhancements piloted • Technology to progress • Charters crucial for sustained coverage
  28. 28. GLOSS Status (May 2016) • Univ. of Hawaii updated website • New technologies: Technical report on the use of microwave sensors at tide gauges Recent Achievements Foci for the Next Year • Continue upgrading stations with GPS • Continue upgrading stations with microwave sensors • 168 stations with current data • 45 stations with some data • 77 stations no reporting data
  29. 29. Way forward
  30. 30. Regions vulnerable to coastal flooding Nicholls & Cazenave, 2010
  31. 31. Flooding  The most reported extreme event: 2001-2010  For many Caribbean countries, flooding is the most common natural hazard affecting socioeconomic development  WMO Flood Forecasting Initiative  Surges (particularly driven by waves) and rainfall can both create significant problems
  32. 32. Exposure to coastal inundation is large and growing • Population is attracted to coasts by an abundance of local resources • Growing coastal population • Urbanising coastal zone • Tourism, recreation, retirement… • In many parts of the world, the population is directly exposed to the coastal hazards and this will increase with Climate Change and Sea Level Rise. • A reactive approach to adaptation increase the vulnerability. Vulnerability (early warning, protection infra….) Hazards (storm surges, heavy rain…) Exposure (Population in the coasts…) Disasters Disasters are more likely when Hazards and exposed population overlap with Vulnerability.
  33. 33. End-to-end Coastal Inundation Management Policy / Management Forecasting and Warning sytems CoastalFlooding Sea Level Rise / Climate Change Tsunamis Storm Surges Extreme Waves ICAM Tides Hydrological Flooding SeaLevelObservations Seismic Obs. Wind,hydrometeorological Observations Real-timeDatatransmisison+ disseminationofproducts Modelling (Forecasting/Hindcasting) DEM,Bathymetry Post-eventsurvey,Mapping Socio-economicanalyses Planning Regulations/Policy Adaptation
  34. 34. Demonstration Project: CIFDP To meet challenges of coastal communities’ safety and to support sustainable development through enhancing coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems at the regional scale. : building improved operational forecasts and warnings capability for coastal inundation, that can be sustained by the responsible national agencies  Identify and support end-user needs;  Encourage full engagement of the stakeholders and partners in the CIFDP from early stages, for the successful development and implementation of this project;  Transfer technology to the adopting countries;  Facilitate the development and implementation of warning services;  Support coastal risk assessment, vulnerability and risk mapping;  Assist improved and informed decision-making for coastal inundation management
  35. 35. CIFDP: Benefit for Implementing Countries  Upon completion of national sub-projects of CIFDP: countries will implement an operational system for integrated coastal inundation forecasting and warning, providing objective basis for coastal disaster (flooding) management; contributing to saving lives, reducing loss of livelihood and property, and enhancing resilience and sustainability in coastal communities.  Upon completion of each Phase of the Project: countries will be provided with valuable input to the assessment and awareness of the issues of coastal inundation management within its governments.
  36. 36. Strategy for CIFDP implementation  CIFDP is implemented through national sub-projects, launched for a country that meets the essential requirement: national agreement;  CIFDP sub-projects are designed based on users’ perspectives and requirements, considering existing and available open source techniques. Final products of the Demonstration Project should be operated and maintained by national operational agencies which have the responsibility/authority for coastal inundation warnings;  The procedures/best practices developed through sub-projects should be applicable to other (neighbouring) countries with common issues and interests, and should be closely linked to and cooperating with related projects and activities.
  37. 37. CIFDP Implementation Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis. World Bank, 2005 40
  38. 38. Project Scoping and Preparation: Definitive National Agreement (DNA), training, and initial data inventory Project Planning and Design: Stakeholder workshop, establish National Coordination Team (NCT), regional buy-in, initial project design/setup (Mexico demo) System Development: Digital elevation model (DEM), SLOSH/wave grid creation and quality control, and model development Develop Training modules System Validation: MOMs/MEOW creation, QA/QC, and model validation Deploy online training modules Phase 0 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Project Scoping and Preparation: Definitive National Agreement (DNA), training, and initial data inventory Project Planning and Design: Stakeholder workshop, establish National Coordination Team (NCT), regional buy-in, initial project design/setup System Development: model development Develop Training modules System Validation: QA/QC, and model validation Deploy online training modules System Integration and Training: System implementation, project evaluation, specialized training workshop Project evaluation report and application
  39. 39. Way forward
  40. 40. Way forward for Belt and Road Communities  Identify 3-5 requirements for MetOcean services, AND key stakeholders  Identify challenges to address those requirements, such as infrastructure, personnel, funds, internal and external coordination, etc.  Existing capacity and collaboration at national, regional and international scales.  …
  41. 41. Improved MMS  Integrated and coordinated observations, data management, forecasting and services systems Services… Data Management… Observations…
  42. 42. Acknowledgement  Global Ocean Observing System, GOOS  WMO-IOC Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology, JCOMM
  43. 43. Thank you for attention Questions?

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