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資産運用とビッグデータ解析_2

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DLLAB DAY 2018 Track1 14:00-14:40

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資産運用とビッグデータ解析_2

  1. 1. Copyright © Finatext Ltd / Nowcast, Inc. All Rights Reserved. NOWCAST Inc. June 21, 2018 資産運用とビックデータ解析 DLLAB DAY 2018
  2. 2. Copyright © Finatext Ltd / Nowcast, Inc. All Rights Reserved. FINATEXT Each Group Company CapabilitySummary Finatext Nowcast Smartplus Founded December 2013. Provide mobile financial service with 2m users. Branches in Taiwan / Malaysia / UK Acquired in 2016. Big Data analysis service for institutional investors. Launch in 2018. BaaS(Brokerage as a Service) execution function platform. Realization of highly flexible securities front development via API releases. ● Mobile UI/UX Development ● User community design and operation ● Unique financial services based on technology ● Big Data Analytics ● Japan Stock Execution Platform We have grown into 8 companies in 6 countries over 4 years
  3. 3. Copyright © Finatext Ltd / Nowcast, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Usage of Alternative Data Planned Spending on Alternative Data Market Size of Alternative Data • Although market size of alternative data currently stands at USD 400m, it is expected to be USD 1,708m by 2020 • As it is becoming harder for active funds to generate returns that beat the market, attention is turning to the use of alternative data to new investment insights. Source:Greenwich Associate In an environment where it is becoming increasingly difficult for active funds to produce returns, alternative data different to conventional settlement information and government statistics data is gathering attention. 5% 21% 74% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Less Same More Source:AlternativeData.org
  4. 4. Copyright © Finatext Ltd / Nowcast, Inc. All Rights Reserved. What is Alternative Data? Investors trying to differentiate investment performance with big data Most interesting item among Big data is Consumer Transaction Data Source:Source:Citigroup Global MarketsSource:Financial Times
  5. 5. Copyright © Finatext Ltd / Nowcast, Inc. All Rights Reserved. ▪ Is organic data optimal for the purpose? e.g. ▪ POS data for CPI, for Maker’s activity ▪ Credit card data for Consumption indices, ▪ Does machine learning approach exploit organic data to the fullest? Every organic data requires various tricks. How does organic data work? Organic Source data ? ? ? ??Machine Learning
  6. 6. Copyright © Finatext Ltd / Nowcast, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Challenges for Investment Insights Challenges Methodology Source data Stock recommendation by deep learning - Deep learning - Clustering - Financial information - Stock prices - Macro indicators Algorithmic trading by deep learning - Reinforcement learning - Deep learning - Stock prices - Macro indicators - Transaction data Sentiment indicators - Natural language processing - Deep learning - News text - SNS text Extracting insights with hierarchical Bayes - Hierarchical Bayes MCMC - Transaction data - Transaction property - Weather information Advanced clustering of time series data - Dynamic Time Warping - Transaction data - Statement data
  7. 7. Copyright © Finatext Ltd / Nowcast, Inc. All Rights Reserved. • Model Details e.g. POS data for Producer’s activity Quarterly POS Sales Forecasting Model The model to forecast quarterly pos sales based on weekly sales. Sales Forecasting Model The model to forecast overall sales based on Quarterly sales forecasted value
  8. 8. Copyright © Finatext Ltd / Nowcast, Inc. All Rights Reserved. • Back test results of our quarter sales forecast e.g. POS data for Producer’s activity ±1σ ±1σ Even compared to Market Consensus, our forecast is more accurate. For 33 companies’ quarter sales covered by Market consensus, we calculated our forecast error shown in the left graph and RMSE below. RMSE of our forecast/ market consensus vs actual sales Our forecast: 3.97% Market consensus: 4.88%
  9. 9. Copyright © Finatext Ltd / Nowcast, Inc. All Rights Reserved. e.g. POS data for Producer’s activity ▪ What is expected from model?
  10. 10. Copyright © Finatext Ltd / Nowcast, Inc. All Rights Reserved. ▪ We are fully capable of being “supply chain core” in Big Data market ▪ The point is … whether you want one brilliant figure or want to explore the possibilities. Scope of Data analytics of our business Prospecting Source data Mining Source data Forging Cleansed data Smithing Product Prospection Agency service Brokerage Pre-Model Data Investment Insights
  11. 11. Copyright © Finatext Ltd / Nowcast, Inc. All Rights Reserved. ▪ We build a ‘Macro indicator’ as a prospecting tool ▪ From that data is just a stone or brilliant ore to develop forging methodology to extract the complete capacity of the source. ▪ In this sense, the length of the time series is an important key. Why Nowcast? Prospecting Source data Mining Source data Forging Cleansed data Macro Indicator
  12. 12. Copyright © Finatext Ltd / Nowcast, Inc. All Rights Reserved. NOWCAST Inc. June 21, 2018 資産運用とビックデータ解析 DLLAB DAY 2018

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