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DecarboN8 Carbon Pathways Workshop: Jillian Anable - CREDS

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A presentation from Professor Jillian Anable on behalf of the CREDS Transport theme at the DecarboN8 Workshop, 'Decarbonising Transport: Connecting Carbon Targets to Action' held at the Institute for Transport Studies on 07/01/20

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DecarboN8 Carbon Pathways Workshop: Jillian Anable - CREDS

  1. 1. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY The Carbon Briefing Jillian Anable on behalf of CREDSTransportTheme PRESENTATIONAT DECARBON8 MEETING, 7TH JAN 2020
  2. 2. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY Private transport & C02: an uneven story Across: • journey purposes • settlement type and region • income groups • age groups and cohorts • Who and where changes the most over time
  3. 3. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY Current emissions from the transport sector Source: BEIS (2019) 2017 Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures =34% total UK MtCO2e (2017)
  4. 4. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY UK domestic and international emissions by mode (1990 – 2016) 3% decrease in car emissions (official (not real- world) figures) International emissions have more than doubled 65% increase in van emissions (official (not real- world) figures)
  5. 5. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY Proportion of miles undertaken by each journey purpose* Leisure travel = 40% miles (or 50+% if incl. shopping) NTS (England) 2018 *surface modes only
  6. 6. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY Distribution of trips and miles by journey length -65% -31% -1% -1% -0.79% -0.04% 18% 46% 7% 12% 14% 2% -75% -60% -45% -30% -15% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75% up to 5 5 - 35 35 - 50 50 - 100 100 - 300 300 to 1000 Trips % Miles % ~ 3% trips do ~30% of total mileage (2017, England) Long DistanceTrips (LDT) = >50 miles Annual per capita mobility in England Overall LDT % LDT Miles 6,600 1,900 ~30% Trips 780 19 ~3% Source: NTS 2015 - 2017, pooled weighted N=46,603
  7. 7. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 Below 2 miles 2 to 4 4 to 8 8 to 16 16 to 35 35 to 50 50 to 100 100 to 150 150 to 250 250 to 400 Above 400 other leisure commuting business Nearly 2/3 of LDT miles are for leisure purposes Miles undertaken by different purposes and trip lengths Source: NTS 2015 - 2017, pooled weighted N=46,603
  8. 8. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY Recent uptick in trips…
  9. 9. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY 25% 17% 35% 6% 6% 4% 3% 3% 1% 0% International air trips by UK residents Approx 90% of trips are for leisure Source: CAA Consumer Surveys, ONS International Passenger Survey 22% 26% 32% 5% 5% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% Spain Five closest European countries (Ireland, France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands) Other Europe North America Asia Africa (including Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia) South America (including Caribbean) Middle East Australasia Other (including 'stay on board' cruises) Source: ONS International Passenger Survey data on overseas trips by air by UK residents, 2017, all purposes)
  10. 10. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY Hypothesis: Everyone is flying more 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 0-15 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 & over VisitsbyUKresidents 2007 2017 Data from International Passenger Survey for trips made by air. Data for overseas trips by UK residents for all modes, and CAA DPS amalgamated airports data for UK residents shows the same trend. The majority of growth is coming from those aged 16-34 and 65+. Trips by 0-15 year olds are stable/declining – so the growth is not family holidays.
  11. 11. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY Age groups also differ by journey purpose The growth in travel by 65+ group is almost all holidays. There has been growth in visits to friends and relatives for all age groups, particularly those aged 16-54. -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Business Holiday Miscellaneous Study VFR ChangeinvisitsbyUK residentsbyair2007-2017 (millions) 0-15 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 & over
  12. 12. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY Urban vs rural Source: Road Traffic Estimates GB (2018) In 2015/16 people living in rural villages, hamlets and isolated dwellings travelled 10,200 miles on average compared with 5,200 in urban conurbation and 6,600 in England as a whole. Source: DfT National Travel Survey Table NTS9904
  13. 13. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY Geographical variations CO2 emissions from private cars (2011) Average mileage per private car per annum (2011)
  14. 14. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY Mobility by income NTS (UK) 2008 *surface modes only

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