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MODELLING WATER SENSITIVE CITIES – A
HISTORICAL WATER INFRASTRUCTURE STUDY
OF THE SCOTCHMAN’S CREEK CATCHMENT
Dean Denny 2...
PRESENTATION OUTLINE
 Basis of research
 DANcE4Water & UrbanSim (OPUS)
 Study area & context
 Scotchman’s Creek
 Scot...
BASIS OF RESEARCH
 Existing water infrastructure is being placed under increasing
pressure by several devices;
 Climate ...
DANCE4WATER & URBANSIM (OPUS)
 Urban Development
Module (UDM)
 City Development
 Urban Dynamics
 UDM Utilises UrbanSim...
STUDY AREA & CONTEXT – SCOTCHMAN’S CREEK
 Area:1029 hA
 20km SE of the Melbourne
CBD
 Includes suburbs Mount
Waverley (...
SITE & CONTEXT – SCOTCHMAN’S CREEK AND
VICTORIA
 SE suburb in the Greater
Melbourne Metropolitan
 Greater Melbourne
Metr...
AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS & LAND USE ANALYSIS - AIMS
 What land use dynamics are occurring?
 Are there any trends or relationsh...
AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS & LAND USE ANALYSIS -
METHOD
 GIS analysis
 Aerial photographs were obtained from City of Monash Coun...
AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS & ANALYSIS - METHOD
East (Mount Waverley)
West (Glen Waverley)
AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS & LAND USE – GIS ANALYSIS
1972 1982
AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS & LAND USE – GIS ANALYSIS
20011992
AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS & LAND USE – GIS ANALYSIS
Land Use 1972 1982 1992 1999 2001 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010
Residential 66.0% ...
AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS & LAND USE – GIS ANALYSIS
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
100.00%
...
AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS & LAND USE - RETROFIT
Catchment Study area East West
Lot size (hA) 2.064 2.569
Initial dwellings 20 28
...
AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS & LAND USE – RESULTS,
FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION
 Uneven time steps
 Inability to use 1963 Aerial
 Agri...
AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS & LAND USE – RESULTS,
FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION
 Strong correlation between the increase in Residential
...
POPULATION ANALYSIS - AIMS
 What are the population trends within Victoria?
 At what rate is the population increasing?
...
POPULATION ANALYSIS - METHODS
 Literature Review
 Key documents analysed such as ‘Victoria in Future 2012’
 Statistical...
POPULATION ANALYSIS - VICTORIA
y = 5E-06e0.0138x
R² = 0.9677
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
800...
POPULATION ANALYSIS - VICTORIA
y = 0.1047x - 176.23
R² = 0.3717
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 198...
POPULATION ANALYSIS – STUDY AREA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1980 1990 2000 2010
Popul...
POPULATION ANALYSIS – STUDY AREA
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
1980 1990 2000 2010
Averagepersonsperdwellin...
POPULATION ANALYSIS – STUDY AREA
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Percentageoftotalres...
POPULATION ANALYSIS – RESULTS, FINDINGS AND
DISCUSSION
 Uncertainty in data bins for median age
 Unavailable data for st...
WATER INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS - AIMS
 How does the infrastructure develop?
 Is the network laid out, then development oc...
WATER INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS - METHOD
 GIS Analysis
 Land Use Maps
 Water infrastructure (Pipe network) overlaid and c...
WATER INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS
1972 1982
WATER INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS
20011992
WATER INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012
TotalP...
WATER INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS
64.00%
66.00%
68.00%
70.00%
72.00%
74.00%
76.00%
78.00%
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
6000...
WATER INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS – RESULTS,
FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION
 Limited noting of construction date cause of great
unce...
STUDY OUTLOOK
 Area is implementing high density residential living
options
 Increased impervious areas, increased runof...
CONCLUSION
 Uncertainty of Colonisation, though evidence suggests 1950-
1970
 Development phase 1972-2001
 Redevelopmen...
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  1. 1. MODELLING WATER SENSITIVE CITIES – A HISTORICAL WATER INFRASTRUCTURE STUDY OF THE SCOTCHMAN’S CREEK CATCHMENT Dean Denny 22084657 CIV4210-4211: FINAL YEAR PROJECT
  2. 2. PRESENTATION OUTLINE  Basis of research  DANcE4Water & UrbanSim (OPUS)  Study area & context  Scotchman’s Creek  Scotchman’s Creek and Victoria  Study deliverables  Aerial & Land Use Analysis  Aims  Methods  Results  Population Analysis  Aims  Methods  Results  Water Infrastructure Analysis  Aims  Methods  Results  Study Outlook  Conclusion
  3. 3. BASIS OF RESEARCH  Existing water infrastructure is being placed under increasing pressure by several devices;  Climate Change  Population Growth  Urbanisation  The above has prompted the development of DAnCE4Water for envisioning future scenarios and the impacts on the infrastructure.  The Scotchman’s Creek catchment has been selected for the DAnCE4Water model.  The DANcE4Water model requires;  Data for input  Calibration of output  Validation of output
  4. 4. DANCE4WATER & URBANSIM (OPUS)  Urban Development Module (UDM)  City Development  Urban Dynamics  UDM Utilises UrbanSim (Open Platform for Urban Simulation)  Household statistics  Building types and footprints  Industry  Land parcels  Real estate  Transport data
  5. 5. STUDY AREA & CONTEXT – SCOTCHMAN’S CREEK  Area:1029 hA  20km SE of the Melbourne CBD  Includes suburbs Mount Waverley (East) and Glen Waverley (West), both part of the City of Monash municipality  Experienced great land use changes, particularly between 1950-1970.  “Balanced” land uses within catchment
  6. 6. SITE & CONTEXT – SCOTCHMAN’S CREEK AND VICTORIA  SE suburb in the Greater Melbourne Metropolitan  Greater Melbourne Metropolitan to grow in three possible ways. Source: Melbourne 2030, 2002
  7. 7. AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS & LAND USE ANALYSIS - AIMS  What land use dynamics are occurring?  Are there any trends or relationships between land uses?  Are there any ‘clear-cut’ stages of development? If so when do they occur?  Colonisation  Development  Redevelopment/Densification  Is there notable evidence of urbanisation and densification within the catchment?  Renewal rate  Glen Waverley versus Mount Waverley: Do the areas develop at independent rates or is development uniform across study area?
  8. 8. AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS & LAND USE ANALYSIS - METHOD  GIS analysis  Aerial photographs were obtained from City of Monash Council for analysis as per data agreement.  Land uses were plotted onto aerial photographs:  Industry  Municipal  Residential  Parkland  Retail  Education  Transport  Agriculture  Intervallic data analysis conducted using the land use statistics from GIS  Retrofit  Using the aerial photographs, two study residential regions (East and West sides) were selected.  Number of dwellings, Number of redeveloped dwellings, Total change in dwellings noted.  Retrofit coefficient determined.
  9. 9. AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS & ANALYSIS - METHOD East (Mount Waverley) West (Glen Waverley)
  10. 10. AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS & LAND USE – GIS ANALYSIS 1972 1982
  11. 11. AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS & LAND USE – GIS ANALYSIS 20011992
  12. 12. AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS & LAND USE – GIS ANALYSIS Land Use 1972 1982 1992 1999 2001 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 Residential 66.0% 71.3% 71.6% 75.2% 76.2% 76.3% 76.4% 76.4% 76.5% 76.5% Municipal 2.1% 3.3% 3.4% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 3.1% 2.3% Education 2.7% 4.3% 6.8% 6.5% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% Transport 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% Parkland 18.5% 13.4% 11.9% 10.4% 9.8% 9.8% 9.5% 9.5% 9.3% 10.1% Retail 3.8% 3.8% 4.2% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.1% 3.1% 2.8% 2.8% Industry 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% Agriculture 4.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SUM 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 2010
  13. 13. AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS & LAND USE – GIS ANALYSIS 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% 90.00% 100.00% 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Scotchman's Creek study area land use composition Residential Municipal Education Transport Parkland Retail Industry Agriculture
  14. 14. AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS & LAND USE - RETROFIT Catchment Study area East West Lot size (hA) 2.064 2.569 Initial dwellings 20 28 Final dwellings 23 32 Total retrofitted dwellings 6 5 Total change in dwellings 9 9 Retrofit Coefficient (dw/5 years/hA) 0.382 0.256
  15. 15. AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS & LAND USE – RESULTS, FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION  Uneven time steps  Inability to use 1963 Aerial  Agricultural sector leaves study area by 1992, but how large was the initial presence?  Provide insight into colonisation and early development.  Key infrastructure laid down, i.e. rail and roads  Missing areas in aerial photographs either neglected or interpolated per judgement.  ‘Developmental Peak’ in 2001  Development period 1972-2001  Redevelopment period 2001-Present  GIS a ‘visual analysis’ which makes determining medium density living areas difficult.  Retrofit analysis highlighted that retrofitting is occurring and is occurring at a greater rate the further distance away from the CBD.
  16. 16. AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS & LAND USE – RESULTS, FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION  Strong correlation between the increase in Residential development and the reduction in Parkland. (+10.5% Residential, -8.4% Parkland)  Education may be condensing, as some schools were reduced in size and subdivisions were constructed.  -1% Retail. Implementation of shopping centres.
  17. 17. POPULATION ANALYSIS - AIMS  What are the population trends within Victoria?  At what rate is the population increasing?  Median age?  Household size characteristics?  What are the population trends within the Scotchman’s Creek catchment?  At what rate is the population increasing? Is it increasing at the same rate as per Victoria?  Median age? Is it equivalent to the Victorian median age?  Household size characteristics?  Wealth distribution of study area?  What effects do the above have on the land use dynamics within the study area? Are there any relationships?
  18. 18. POPULATION ANALYSIS - METHODS  Literature Review  Key documents analysed such as ‘Victoria in Future 2012’  Statistical Analysis  Census of Population and Housing  Suburbs in Time
  19. 19. POPULATION ANALYSIS - VICTORIA y = 5E-06e0.0138x R² = 0.9677 0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000 7000000 8000000 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 Victorian Population Source: Victoria in Future 2012
  20. 20. POPULATION ANALYSIS - VICTORIA y = 0.1047x - 176.23 R² = 0.3717 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Age Year Victorian Median Age
  21. 21. POPULATION ANALYSIS – STUDY AREA 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 1980 1990 2000 2010 Population Year Population of Suburbs within Catchment Mount Waverley Glen Waverley 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 1980 1990 2000 2010 Totalinternationalresidential Year International Residents in Suburbs within Catchment Mount Waverley Glen Waverley
  22. 22. POPULATION ANALYSIS – STUDY AREA 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 1980 1990 2000 2010 Averagepersonsperdwelling Year Average Household Size of Suburbs within Catchment Mount Waverley Glen Waverley 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Percentageofhouseholds Year Lowest and Highest Income Households within Catchment Low Income Mount Waverley Low Income Glen Waverley High Income Mount Waverley High Income Glen Waverley
  23. 23. POPULATION ANALYSIS – STUDY AREA 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Percentageoftotalresidential Year Medium Density Residential of Suburbs within Catchment Mount Waverley Glen Waverley
  24. 24. POPULATION ANALYSIS – RESULTS, FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION  Uncertainty in data bins for median age  Unavailable data for study area prior to 1981  Earlier data (not made publicly available) may provide insight into colonisation and development phases  Population growth ‘independent’ of Victorian growth  Population decreased from 1981 to 1996 and steadily increased to 2011.  Redistribution of wealth in area  Strong correlation of the increase in international residents to medium density living and low income households.
  25. 25. WATER INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS - AIMS  How does the infrastructure develop?  Is the network laid out, then development occur? Or is it more of an incremental approach?  How does the land use effect the water infrastructure in the study area?  Development phase: Is there evidence of branching from the main water trunks?  Redevelopment phase: is it a case of retrofitting existing infrastructure?  Are there any relationships between the community profile and the water system?
  26. 26. WATER INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS - METHOD  GIS Analysis  Land Use Maps  Water infrastructure (Pipe network) overlaid and clipped  Time step intervallic analysis  Excel Analysis
  27. 27. WATER INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS 1972 1982
  28. 28. WATER INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS 20011992
  29. 29. WATER INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012 TotalPipeLaid(m) Year Length of Infrastructure Within Catchment 2010
  30. 30. WATER INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS 64.00% 66.00% 68.00% 70.00% 72.00% 74.00% 76.00% 78.00% 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 PercentageofTotalCatchment LengthofInfrastructure(m) Years Water Infrastructure Laid and Residential Fraction in Catchment Pipe Length Laid (m) Percentage of Catchment Residential 62,000 64,000 66,000 68,000 70,000 72,000 74,000 76,000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 TotalResidents LengthofInfrastructure(m) Years Water Infrastructure Laid and Population in Suburbs within Catchment Pipe Length Laid (m) Population of Glen Waverley and Mount Waverley
  31. 31. WATER INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS – RESULTS, FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION  Limited noting of construction date cause of great uncertainty  Uncertainty fails to provide the anticipated ‘branch out’ which is most likely to have occurred prior to 1972 (even 1963).  Increase in pipe laid as redevelopment phase is entered. ‘2 year lag’. 93.11% correlation between residential and pipe development.  Residential development key driver of water infrastructure within the catchment.
  32. 32. STUDY OUTLOOK  Area is implementing high density residential living options  Increased impervious areas, increased runoff, water and sewage infrastructure demands and loadings.  UrbanSim Inputs  Real Estate  Travel Times and rail infrastructure  Socio-economic climate within the catchment  may tie in with the Socio-transitional Module (STM)  Implementation of WSUD  Real estate prices, ‘Green and Blue Space’
  33. 33. CONCLUSION  Uncertainty of Colonisation, though evidence suggests 1950- 1970  Development phase 1972-2001  Redevelopment and Densification 2001- Present  Population of study area independent (1981-2011) of Victorian population  Further investigation of earlier data required  Ageing community profile  Influx of international residents primary driver of development over the past 15 years  4% Increase in medium density residential between 2001-2006.  Strong correlation between the length of infrastructure laid and residential land use.  ‘2 year lag’ of development

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