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Guatemala Country Report - ENG

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Guatemala Country Report - ENG

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Guatemala Country Report - ENG

  1. 1. GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORTBY LUIS RODRIGO ASTURIAS, JOSÉ MANUEL CUEVAS, IVÁN KIM, AND DAVID SOLER UPDATED: MARCH 2020
  2. 2. GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE Country Overview Demography Macroeconomics Trade Govermnent Finance Financial Markets Competitiveness and Doing Business 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Education 9. State of Democracy 10. Corruption 11. Violence and Security 12. Malnutrition 13. NCID Work INDEX SPECIAL TOPICS
  3. 3. Biggest and most pupulated city in Central America, with 923,392 people. GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT ALEJANDROGIAMMATTEI President (2O2O-2024) MULTI-ETHNICPOPULATION Over 16 million people, with 22 different languages. GUATEMALACITYADMINISTRATIVEUNITS 22 departments, and 340 municipalities POLITICALSYSTEM Unitary Presidential Republic NCID-CINDERE 1.COUNTRYOVERVIEW
  4. 4. 1523-1524 - Colonization period. 1821- First and official independence. 1844-1944 - Military governments and caudillos. 1944-1954 - Revolution and social reforms. 1954-1960 - Counterrevolutionary governments. 1960/62-1996 - Internal armed conflict. 1985 - Current constitution. 1986 - New democratic era. 1990-1996 - Peace agreements. 2007-2019 - International Commision Against Impunity in Guatemala. 1.COUNTRYOVERVIEW GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT TIMELINE OFKEYEVENTS NCID-CINDERE
  5. 5. 2.DEMOGRAPHICS TOTAL POPULATION: est. 16,346,950 (2018 census) POPULATION GROWTH: 16-17% in the past decade. It will begin to decline gradually, reaching 14.4% by 2022 DENSITY: 150 people per km , 2nd in Central America, just behind El Salvador GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE POPULATION PYRAMID (%) (SOURCE: POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS, NATIONAL STATISTICS INSTITUTE, 2019) 2 TAKEAWAYS: 48.5% of the population is male. 51.5% of the population is female. 55% of its population is under 25 years old. (SOURCE: CENSUS CONCILIATION, NATIONAL STATISTICS INSTITUTE, 2019)
  6. 6. GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT 5.9 million indigenous people that represent 43.8% of the total population. These include Maya, Xinca, and Garifuna. 2.DEMOGRAPHICS (SOURCE: POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS, NATIONAL STATISTICS INSTITUTE, 2019) Ladino 56% Maya 41.7% Xinka 1.8% ETHNICITYForeign: 0.25% Afrodescendant: 0.19% GarIfuna: 0.13% NCID-CINDERE
  7. 7. GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT 2.DEMOGRAPHICS Urban 53.9% Rural 46.1% (SOURCE: POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS, NATIONAL STATISTICS INSTITUTE, 2019) Steady decline in population living in rural areas. In 2000, 54.7% of the population lived in rural areas. In 2019, 46.1%. URBAN/RURAL NCID-CINDERE
  8. 8. GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT 2.DEMOGRAPHICS Poverty 61.6% No-Poverty 38.4% (SOURCE: MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY INDEX IPM-GT) Two-thirds of the population lack access to at least one primary service, such as food security, education, and sanitation. 56.3% of the population is under the national poverty line. When considering a multidimensional approach, poverty increases to 61.6%. MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY  POVERTY NCID-CINDERE
  9. 9. GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT 2.DEMOGRAPHICS LIFE EXPECTANCY Women: 76 Men: 65.9 (SOURCE: CENSUS CONCILIATION, NATIONAL STATISTICS INSTITUTE, 2019) NCID-CINDERE 2018:
  10. 10. GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT 2.DEMOGRAPHICS 5.3 per 1000 population (SOURCE: CENSUS CONCILIATION, NATIONAL STATISTICS INSTITUTE, 2019) NCID-CINDERE From 1970 to 2018, the gross mortality rate decreased from 15.2 to 5.3. GROSS MORTALITY RATE
  11. 11. GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT 2.DEMOGRAPHICS 2019 2.6 births per woman (SOURCE: CENSUS CONCILIATION, NATIONAL STATISTICS INSTITUTE, 2019) NCID-CINDERE The total fertility rate for the year 1970 was 6.8 decreasing for the year 2019 to 2.6. TOTAL FERTILITY RATE
  12. 12. GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT 2.DEMOGRAPHICS HEALTH GUATEMALA AVERAGE IN CENTRAL AMERICA MATERNAL MORTALITY RATIO REPORTED (100,000 NN.VV.) - 2017 DEATH RATE OF < 5 YEARS REPORTED (1,000 NN.VV.) - 2017 LOW BIRTH WEIGHT (<2500 G) (%) - 2017 PRENATAL CARE WITH TRAINED STAFF (%) - 2014 HOSPITAL CHILDBIRTHS (%) - 2017 HEALTH EXPENDITURE IN % OF GDP - 2016 108 26 13.1 43 57.5 71.9 19.6 10.3 67 70.2 PUBLIC: 2.2 PRIVATE: 3.6 PUBLIC: 3.8 PRIVATE: 3.2 (SOURCE: PAN AMERICAN HEALTH ORGANIZATION, 2019) NCID-CINDERE HEALTH SNAPSHOT
  13. 13. GDP per capita is US$ 4,612.64. The highest in the Northern Triangle. Wholesale and retail Manufacturing industries Agriculture Real estate activitiesAveraged 3.5% between 2013-2019. Central Bank projects growth to be 3.1-4.1% in 2020. Considered low for a middle-income country. 3.MACROECONOMICS GROSS DOMESTICPRODUCT GROWTH RATE PER CAPITA (US$) GDP BY SECTOR (% OF GDP) 2017 2018 2019 8.83 NOTE: GDP VALUES FOR 2017-2019 ARE PRELIMINARY. GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE 8.91 18.13 18.15 8.95 18.17 14.20 14.18 14.10 9.90 9.82 9.74 (SOURCE: CENSUS CONCILIATION, NATIONAL STATISTICS INSTITUTE, 2019) (SOURCE: BANK OF GUATEMALA, 2020)
  14. 14. 2014 7.73 2015 7.65 2016 7.60 2017 7.35 2018 7.52 2019 7.70 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 6 4 2 0 The nominal exchange rate has remained stable. Devaluation pressures: 1. Slowdown in the growth of remittances. 2. Higher imports. 3. Slowdown in export growth. Guatemala's monetary policy strategy is inflation targeting. Its target since 2013 is 4.0% with a tolerance band of +/- 1 pp. (%) INFLATION RATE, END OF PERIOD CONSUMER PRICES QUETZAL EXCHANGE RATE PER DOLLAR (SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, 2020, CONSIDERING 2001 AS YEAR BASE) GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE (SOURCE: BANK OF GUATEMALA, 2020) 2.95 3.07 4.23 5.68 2.31 3.41 3.MACROECONOMICS
  15. 15. 3.MACROECONOMICS FAMILY REMITTANCE INCOME (THOUSANDS OF USD) The Guatemalan migrant population is mainly concentrated in the United States. Remittances are one of the great sources of income. From 2013 to 2019, the amount has doubled from 5,105,189 to  10,508,307 thousands of US dollars. (SOURCE: BANK OF GUATEMALA, 2020) GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE FAMILY REMITTANCE INCOME (THOUSANDS OF USD)
  16. 16. 3.MACROECONOMICS Significant growth in recent years. More than doubled since 2013. (SOURCE: BANK OF GUATEMALA, 2020) GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY RESERVES (MILLIONS OF USD) 2019 US$ 14,789 millions
  17. 17. 3.MACROECONOMICS DEBTANDCREDITRISK Standard & Poor's recently confirmed Guatemala's BB- rating and implied it could raise its rating in the next two years provided certain reforms take place: improving institutions and governance, raising goverment revenues, and higher economic growth. Fitch, and Moody’s Investors Service also maintained their rating. All institutions praise Guatemala's prudent fiscal and monetary policy. Averaged 12.6% between 2015 and 2018. Lowest rate in Central America which averages 26%. One of the lowest in the region. Stable between 12-14% of GDP. Between 2014 and 2018, it averages 10.9%. One of the lowest in the world. GROSS NATIONAL SAVINGS AS % OF THE GDP GROSS NATIONAL INVESTMENT AS % OF THE GDP CENTRAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET REVENUE AS % OF THE GDP (SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, 2020, CONSIDERING 2001 AS YEAR BASE) GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE
  18. 18. 4.TRADE EXPORTS Top exporter in the Northern Triangle. One of the fastest-growing Central American exporters. CAFTA-DR,  a free trade agreement between the US, Central America and the Dominican Republic, stimulated growth. Recently, precious metals have stimulated exports. (SOURCE: WORLD BANK DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS) 2018: US$ 14.2 billion (18.1% of the GDP) EXPORTS VALUE (BILLIONS OF USD) (SOURCE: WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION) GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE
  19. 19. 4.TRADE EXPORTS MAIN EXPORT PARTNERS (BILLIONS OF USD) % CURRENT GROSS EXPORT (SOURCE: ALTAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY, 2019) Guatemala ranks 79  of 133 countries in the Economic Complexity Index (ECI). It is the 91 largest exporter in the world. Its ranking has worsened despite an increasing trend in exports due to lack of export diversification. 2017 in Billions of USD Agriculture: 6.63 Services: 2.86 Minerals: 0.78 Textiles: 1.83 GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE th th th (SOURCE: ALTAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY, 2019)
  20. 20. 4.TRADE IMPORTS IMPORTS VALUE (BILLIONS OF USD) 2018: 21.8 USD bn (27.7% of the GDP) (SOURCE: WORLD BANK DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS) Second largest importer in Central America, behind Panama. Increased 7% from 2017 to 2018. Total trade was 45.8% of GDP. In 2001, it was 69.5%. (SOURCE: WORLD BANK DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS) GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE (SOURCE: WORLD'S TOP EXPORTS, 2018) (SOURCE: OBSERVATORY OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY, 2018)
  21. 21. 4.TRADE IMPORTS 85 largest importer in the world. Imports from Europe have been increasing the most. In the years 2015-2016, imports from this region increased 8% while they only increased 1.6% for North America. MAIN IMPORT PARTNERS (BILLIONS OF USD) GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE % CURRENT GROSS IMPORT (SOURCE: ALTAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY, 2019) 2017 (Billions of USD) Agriculture: 3.41 bn Chemicals: 3.28 bn Services: 3.26 bn th (SOURCE: ALTAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY, 2019)
  22. 22. 5.GOVERNMENTFINANCE 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 30% 20% 10% 0% GOVERNMENT DEBT, EXPENDITURE AND REVENUE AS % OF GDP (SOURCE: GUATEMALA'S MINISTRY OF PUBLIC FINANCE, PROJECTIONS FROM 2019 BY THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND) 2019 ESTIMATED DEBT: 25.2% of the GDP 2019 ESTIMATED EXPENDITURE: 13% of the GDP 2019 ESTIMATED REVENUE: 10.7% of the GDP Expenses: 12.1% of GDP. Revenues: 11% GDP. Since 1997, Guatemala has been in deficit. In 2018: 1. 2. The IMF expects the gap to widen in the coming years such that Guatemala will experience a negative current account and increasing gross debt. GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE
  23. 23. 5.GOVERNMENTFINANCE (SOURCE: BANK OF GUATEMALA) Guatemala has decreased its exposure to exchange rate risk in recent years. GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE Internal 55.4% External 44.6% External 54.8% Internal 45.2% 2010 2019
  24. 24. Improve the quality of information  in the financial and economic systems. Strengthen regulatory framework and its implementation. Apply move supervision towards a risk-based approach. Complete financial markets to diversify the system and enhance intermediation and access. The lending rate has remained stable in the past decade. Challenges: 1. Lack of a securities regulator. 2. Low transparency levels. The IMF Financial Sector Assessment Program recommends: 1. 2. 3. 4. 6.FINANCIALMARKETS (SOURCE: WORLD BANK DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS) 2018 LENDING INTEREST RATE: 12.9% GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE In the last decade, the lending interest in Guatemala has remained stable, being between 13 and 14% until 2017.
  25. 25. 6.FINANCIALMARKETS 15.7% avg. annual interest rate. Up to 30% for consumers or micro-credit loans. Lower interest rate if loan is denominated in dollars. Foreigners rarely rely on the local credit market. Guatemala does not have a market for publicly-traded equities. Large costs of capital. 1. 2. 3. 4. BANKINGANDMONEYSYSTEM CAPITALMARKETSANDINVESTMENT (SOURCE: SUPERINTENDENCIA DE BANCOS, 2019; INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND) Dec. 2019 10 financial groups 16 commercial banks (February 2018: 41.3 USD bn in assets) 12 non-bank financial institutions (for investment banking and medium and long-term lending) (SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE) GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE
  26. 26. Guatemala is the most competitive country in the Northern Triangle. Its best scored pillar is the product market (46/141). Within the pillar of business dynamism, Guatemala is ranked 48/141  in entrepreneurial culture. Its worst scored pillars are quality of institutions (121/141) and the labor sector (122/141). 7.COMPETITIVENESSANDDOINGBUSINESS POSITION: 98/141 SCORE: 53.5/100 GLOBALCOMPETITIVENESSINDEX GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE (SOURCE: GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS REPORT 2019, WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM)
  27. 27. Guatemala's best scores are starting a business and  getting credit. It ranks 99 and 15 out 190 countries in each category, respectively. Its worst scores are enforcing contracts and resolving insolvency. It ranks 176 and 157 out of 190 in each category, respectively. Costa Rica Panamá El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua 75 50 25 0 7.COMPETITIVENESSANDDOINGBUSINESS POSITION: 96/190 SCORE: 62.6/100 DOINGBUSINESS (SOURCE: DOING BUSINESS 2020, WORLD BANK) CENTRAL AMERICA EASE OF DOING BUSINESS SCORE GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE
  28. 28. 8.EDUCATION AccessbeyondPrimaryEducation According to the World Bank, the literacy rate in Guatemala is around 81%. Education beyond primary education is not free. There is a massive drop in enrollment from primary to secondary. In a World Bank survey, 62% of respondents said they could not afford sending their children to secondary school. Enrollment in tertiary education is also low. There is only one public university, Universidad de San Carlos. EDUCATIONAL COVERAGE BY ACADEMIC LEVEL GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE (SOURCE: WORLD BANK DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS) (SOURCE: STATISTICS MINISTRY OF EDUCATION, 2019)
  29. 29. 8.EDUCATION INDIGENOUS (SOURCE: NATIONAL STATISTICS INSTITUTE, 2016) Although 43.8% of the people in Guatemala are indigenous, they are under-represented at all education levels. On top of the lack of public schools in indigenous areas, classes are generally offered in Spanish. The Maya, Garifuna,  and Xinka are not necessarily proficient in Spanish. The mother tongue of more than 30% of the population is indigenous. % STUDENTS ENROLLED AT SCHOOL GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE
  30. 30. 8.EDUCATION EXPENDITURE (SOURCE: WORLD BANK DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS) Guatemala is the country that least invests in education in the region. It averages 2.8% of its GDP. PUBLIC EXPENDITURE IN EDUCATION AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP IN CENTRAL AMERICA GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE
  31. 31. In 2006, Guatemala became a hybrid regime. It was previously considered a flawed democracy. This year fell six  places in the ranking. The Economist cites the dubious banning of political candidates and the obstacles to fight corruption as the main reasons for yet another decline. Since 2006, two out of four presidents have been investigated for corruption charges by the CICIG international commission. In 2015, Otto Pérez, quit amid a corruption scandal. Jimmy Morales, a comedian, won the subsequent elections. In his administration, Morales did not renew CICIG's mandate in Guatemala. In 2019, Alejandro Giamattei was elected president. Only 42% of the elegible electorated voted. RANKING: 93/167 (SOURCE: THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT DEMOCRACY INDEX 2019) SCORE: 5.26/10 DEMOCRACY SCORE 2019 GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE 9.STATEOFDEMOCRACY
  32. 32. 8 presidential and 75 congressional candidates had ongoing judicial processes while on campaign. One presidential candidate, Mario Estrada, was arrested for conspiring with the Mexican Sinaloa drug cartel. There is a clear incentive to hold public office if investigated. Public office holders have immunity from prosecution in Guatemala. CONFLICTSOFINTEREST VIOLENCE 2015 2019 150 87 856 914 ELECTORAL CONFLICTIVY RISK MAP FOR 2019 ELECTIONS (SOURCE: MIRADOR ELECTORAL, 2019) DEATHS EVENTS Extreme (54 municipalities) High (200 municipalities) Medium (83 municipalities) Low (3 municipalities) GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE 9.STATEOFDEMOCRACY-ELECTIONS
  33. 33. Guatemala is tied for second worst performer in Central America with Honduras. 10.CORRUPTION SCORE IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE RANKING: 146/180 SCORE: 26/100 CORRUPTION PERCEPTION INDEX C osta R icaElSalvadorG uatem ala H onduras M exicoN icaragua Panam a 60 40 20 0 56 34 26 26 29 36 22 (SOURCE: CPI 2019, TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL)
  34. 34. 10.CORRUPTION GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT CORRUPTIONASABURDEN Corruption is a transversal reality that hinders development through its effect on competitiveness and productivity. Security. Public sector performance. Transparency. Corporate governance. Future orientation of government. The 2019 Glocal Competitive Index highlights the following issues in Guatemalan Institutions: a. b. c. d. e. NCID-CINDERE RANKING: 141/161 SCORE: 42/100 INSTITUTIONS PILLAR (SOURCE: GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS REPORT 2020, WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM) SCORE 0-100 (BEST)
  35. 35. 10.CORRUPTION GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT 0 10 20 30 Government long-term vision Energy efficiency regulation Government's responsiveness to change 0 25 50 75 Shareholder governance Conflict of interest regulation Strength of auditing and accounting standards 0 10 20 30 40 Organized crime Reliability of police services Homicide rate per 100,000 pop 0 10 20 30 Incidence of corruption 0 25 50 75 E-Participation Burden of government regulation Efficiency of legal framework in settling disputes FUTURE ORIENTATION OF GOVERNMENT SECURITYCORPORATE GOVERNANCE TRANSPARENCY PUBLIC SECTOR PERFORMANCE NCID-CINDERE SCORE 0-100 (BEST) INSTITUTIONSPILLAR (SOURCE: GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS REPORT 2020, WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM)
  36. 36. 10.CORRUPTION INTERNALLYPERCEIVEDCORRUPTION 46% 25% 27% think corruption increased in the last 12 months. paid a bribe  for public services in the last 12 months. were offered bribes in exchange for votes. BUT 76% think that ordinary people can make a difference in the fight against corruption (SOURCE: GLOBAL CORRUPTION BAROMETER 2019, TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL) GRANDCORRUPTIONANDSDGs Corruption in Guatemala  has especially  harmed the health system. A recent report estimates that additional spending of about 8.5% of GDP in 2030 are needed to attain health, education, and roads, water, and sanitation infrastructure SDGs. La Línea customs scandal was equivalent to around a quarter of all health expenditures in 2015 (1.8% of GDP). Seven million dollars were lost to bribes in the health ministry between 2012 and 2014, which represents 5.3% of the state budget for maternal and child healthcare in 2016. GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORTNCID-CINDERE
  37. 37. The International Commission Against Impunity (CICIG) aimed to strengthen judicial institutions and culture in Guatemala. Established in 2007 as part of an agreement between the Government and the United Nations. Each mandate lasted two years subject to renewal. It was renewed five times until President Morales decided not to renew its mandate in 2019. The Washington Office for Latin America (WOLA) highlighted CICIG's legacy: Its role for the reduction of the homicide rate and the impunity rate in violent death cases. An increased culture of citizen and institutional fight against corruption and impunity. Precedent for the new Public Ministry's office against impunity (FECI), which is supposed to continue the CICIG's job. syndicated people processed people identified and investigaded criminal structures high-impact cases investigated guilty veredict sentences CICIG In its 12 years of work, the CICIG along with the Public Ministry did the following: 1540 660 70 120 400 GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORTNCID-CINDERE (SOURCE: THE WASHINGTON OFFICE ON LATIN AMERICA, 2019) (SOURCE: COMISIÓN INTERNACIONAL CONTRA LA IMPUNIDAD EN GUATEMALA 10.CORRUPTION
  38. 38. Guatemala is ranked 114 out ot 163 countries, behind El Salvador.  Violence costs as much as 9% of GDP. Intensity score of 3 out of 5. This implies the country is in a violent crisis. 11.VIOLENCEANDSECURITY GLOBALPEACEINDEX2019 CONFLICTBAROMETER2018 GENERALFRAMEWORK (SOURCE: INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMICS AND PEACE) (SOURCE: HEIDELBERG INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT RESEARCH) GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORTNCID-CINDERE
  39. 39. Born in LA from Salvatorian migrants. The MS13 and Barrio18 are the largest gangs.  Young men in poor urban areas. Alternative drug-dealing route from South to North America since the 80s. From drug-dealing family mafias to the lead of Mexican cartels. The Illegal Clandestine Security Apparatuses first appeared during the transition of the peace agreements. Could include military, politicians, businessmen, drug-traffickers and gang-members. 11.VIOLENCEANDSECURITY ORGANIZEDCRIME MARAS DRUG-DEALERS CIACS ORIGINAND COMPOSITION MAIN CHARACTERISTICS MAIN ACTIVITIES GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORTNCID-CINDERE Social coercion between members. Members belong to clicas. Operations locally and internationally. Murder. Territorial control. Extorsion. Guatemala as the territorial path for the drug to Mexico. Small groups with influence on powerful individuals. Drug-dealing. Extorsion. Peasant displacement. Covert operations. Spread fear to capture windfalls. Capture state resources. Murder. Kidnappings. (BASIC SOURCE: INSIGHT CRIME)
  40. 40. HOMICIDES PER 100,000 PEOPLE 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 50 40 30 20 10 0 The homicide rate has been in a steady decline in recent years. A shrinking Army after the peace agreements, and the consolidation of organized crime has sparked a demand for private security companies (PSC). 11.VIOLENCEANDSECURITY FROMMILITARIZATION TOSECURITIZATION (SOURCE: INSTITUTO IGARAPÉ, 2020) 179 PSCs with operation license (or recently expired) PSCs with a Government agreement PSCs with a Ministerial agreement (SOURCE: DIRECCIÓN GENERAL DE SERVICIOS DE SEGURIDAD PRIVADA) 2018: 22.52009: 46.32000: 25.8 GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORTNCID-CINDERE Guatemala City (2018): 61 homicides per 100,000 people At the beggining of 2019, there were registered: 9 32 Note that there are illegal PSC operating in Guatemala.
  41. 41. Good nutrition is the basis of survival, health and proper development for children. In developing countries, the most common type of malnutrition is undernutrition, a condition that occurs when the lack of nutrients derives in the lose of the ability to support natural functions of the body (growth, resistance to infections, recovery after illness, learning, physical work, and pregnancy and lactation in women). GENERALITIES (BASIC SOURCE: UNICEF) GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORTNCID-CINDERE The most pressing concern in Guatemala is chronic malnutrition in children.  When dealing with chronic malnutrition, treatment must be delivered before children turn 2 years old. Otherwise, brain development is impaired permanently because this is the period of maximum growth for this organ. Its most visible symptom is stunting. If a children's height is less than 70 cm or 80 cm at age 1 or 2, respectively, then they are chronically malnourished. 12.MALNUTRITION
  42. 42. SHORT-TERM MID-TERM LONG-TERM Pathological Cognitive and physical Social Diseases or death Weak immune system Slow or limited acquisition of mental skills Limited growth Difficulties in education Less work productivity (BASIC SOURCE: UNICEF) CONSEQUENCES The consequences of chronic malnutrition are not limited to childhood. It has permanent consequences. GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORTNCID-CINDERE 12.MALNUTRITION
  43. 43. G uatem ala Ecuador H onduras H aitíBelice Panam áBolivia N icaragua Perú ElSalvadorM éxico Venezuela C olom bia AVER AG EG uyana Paraguay Surinam e Barbados R .D om inicana Jam aica C osta R ica U ruguayC uba Santa LucíaEE.U U .C hile 50 40 30 20 10 0 In Guatemala, 46.5% of children under five are chronically malnourished. This amounts to 1,051,232 children. Undernutrition is concentrated in poor rural areas, where most of indigenous population lives, and in the Dry Corridor. However, the most affected departments are in the west: Totonicapán (70%), Quiché (69%), Huehuetenango (68%), and Sololá (66%). GUATEMALA'SEMERGENCYREGIONAL PERSPECTIVE CHRONIC MALNUTRITION IN CHILDREN < 5 YEARS IN THE AMERICAS (%) (SOURCES: PAN AMERICAN HEALTH ORGANIZATION, 2018; NATIONAL STATISTICS INSTITUTE, 2018) SEVERE CHRONIC MALNUTRITION IN CHILDREN < 5 TOTAL: 16.6% RURAL AREAS: 52% INDIGENOUS: 58% CHILDREN WITH ANEMIA < 5 YEARS: 32% 6-11 MONTHS: > 70% AND 24% OF PREGNANT WOMEN MALNUTRITION IS RESPONSIBLE OF.. ... 45% OF CHILDREN DEATHS (SOURCE: ENCUESTA DE SALUD MATERNO INFANTIL, 2017) GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE (SOURCE: FOR CAUSE OF CHILDREN DEATH, 'MATERNAL AND CHILD UNDERNUTRITION AND OVERWEIGHT IN LOW-INCOME AND MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES', BY BLACK ET AL., 2013) 12.MALNUTRITION
  44. 44. STATE(IN)ACTION APOSSIBLE WAY Between 2008 and 2016, Perú reduced chronical malnutrition from 28% to 13%. Through a strategic plan that included initial social pressure, atrategy spanning  three administrations, and capacity building to households. The key was empowering parents with informational campaigns, improved access to health services, and monetary incentives. Larger resources were allocated to local governments depending on their results. In Latin America, Peru has fought child malnutrition with relative success, and its case is similar to Guatemala's because of its similar because of its impact  on the rural poor and indigenous population. (SOURCE: WORLD BANK, 2017) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY  AS % OF THE GDP Expenditure  on nutrition pales in comparison with other countries. No discernible changes in recent years. A 100 million loan ha been granted and there is no clear execution plan (Crecer Sano at the World Bank). Despite marginal increases since 2016, Guatemala lacks coordination from its public sector. Álvaro Colom Otto Pérez Molina Alejandro Maldonado Jimmy Morales (SOURCES: MINISTERIO DE FINANZAS PÚBLICAS AND BANCO DE GUATEMALA) (SOURCE: INSTITUTO CENTROAMERICANO DE ESTUDIOS FISCALES) 2019: 1.49% of the GDP GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE 12.MALNUTRITION
  45. 45. The NCID has is associated with the research center Centro de Investigación para el Desarrollo Regional (CINDERE) at Universidad del Istmo in Guatemala. Both institutions have a deep collaboration and undergo research together on health, education, security, migration, governance, and competitiveness in Guatemala and the Northern Triangle. RESEARCH PROJECT: Homicide is rampant in Latin America and the Caribbean. This project aims to provide experimental evidence on the impact of using media as a therapeutic tool to prevent at-risk youth in Guatemala from engaging in violent behavior. FINANCING: Program SDG TV of the foundation Connected Cities and the local office of the United Nations Development Program. PERIOD: 2019 - 2021 THERAPEUTIC MEDIA: SELF-EFFECTS AND STREET VIOLENCE IN GUATEMALA GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE 13.NCID-CINDEREWORK
  46. 46. NCID Junior Researcher José Manuel Cuevas has been studying the history of violence in Guatemala. Cuevas has published an in-depth Occasional Paper which dives into Guatemalan history to try to explain how, more than twenty years after the end of the internal armed conflict that wrecked Guatemala, it is still far from becoming a peaceful country. He has also published a review on a book by Robert H. Holden which analyzes how armies and military caudillos were crucial for the formation of the Central American states and nations. You can access to the content by clicking on the images. GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE 13.NCIDWORK-GeneralContributions
  47. 47. One of the NCID's objective is to also reach the wider public through analysis published in media outlets on our areas of research. The NCID has published in leading Guatemalan newspaper Prensa Libre as well as in the Guatemalan media outlet Nómada, whilst in Spain at media outlet Esglobal. You can access each article by clicking in the logo of the media outlet. MEDIAAPPEARANCES GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE 13.NCIDWORK
  48. 48. ncid.unav.edu MARCH 2020 unis.edu.gt/CINDERE GUATEMALA COUNTRY REPORT NCID-CINDERE

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