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Scenario planning 2013 copy

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Step-by-step process for developing planning scenarios

Scenario planning 2013 copy

  1. 1. Scenario PlanningCrafting ScenariosByDavid E C Huggins, MASc, FIoD, CMS
  2. 2. Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosSession Objectives: To establish a mindset for crafting Scenarios (30,000 feet) To examine a practical approach model (3,000 feet) To define techniques and process (300 feet) To plan for specific success (30 feet) and To detail the scenario plan for implementation (30 ins)
  3. 3. Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosDIRECTION ANDIMPETUSOVERSIGHTHINDSIGHT FORESIGHTINSIGHTWISDOM +INTELLIGENCESTRENGTHS& PASSIONSSOLUTIONS& OUTCOMESThe FOCAL PointsMindset - 30,000 ft.
  4. 4. Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosInsight is Revelation -like a story, having Intellectual and Emotional ImpactScenarios are Stories. . . they have “plots”(Evolution; Revolution; Cycles; Infinite Expansion; Lone Ranger; Generation -culture / demographic P Schwartz). . . they have “CHARM”(Context; Heroes; Action; Results/Outcomes; Morals / Motifs DEC Huggins)
  5. 5. Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosOne Critical Insight . . .Tools and BehaviorsPolicies & Procedures Perspectives (Framings)Systems & Processes Perceptions (Values/Passions)Data & Trends Response ImpactEWS focal sources Timing / ExposureSPECTRE locus Filters & BiasesBlind Spots Reality / Flexibility
  6. 6. Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosA Model - 3000 ft.Chaotics Management System - Kotler & Caslione1. Identify sources of turbulence and chaos2. Identify management’s wrong responses to turbulence3. Establish Early Warning Systems (EWS)4. Construct Key Scenarios and Strategies5. Prioritize Key Scenarios and select Strategy6. Implement Chaotics Strategic Management Behaviors7. Implement Chaotics Strategic Marketing Behaviors8. Achieve Business Enterprise Sustainability
  7. 7. Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosTemplates – 3000 ft.COMMITMENT-REWARDSINCENTIVE - EMOTIONAL IMPACTEXPECTEDFEAREDWORST
  8. 8. Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosPreparation - 300 ft.Fifth Discipline (P Senge)Personal Mastery + Mental Models + Shared Vision + Team LearningSystems ThinkingThinking Techniques (D Rock)Harness the subconsciousFour-hour workflowManage the Stage
  9. 9. Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosConstruction – 300 ft.Prework1.Visualize Outcomes / Key Questions2.Set Scope and Timelines3.Identify Main Stakeholders > FormTeamAction Sequence1. Decide on Drivers for Change2. Bring together in viableframework3. Produce 7 to 9 initial mini-scenarios4. Reduce to 2 or 3 focal scenarios5. Draft scenarios6. Identify issues arising
  10. 10. Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosTraps & Pitfalls – 30 ft.Team CompositionRole of the FacilitatorTime PressuresCultural / Geographical differencesTransfer / Transactional shiftsPolitical InterferenceImplementation
  11. 11. Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosThe Need for Active Leadership – 30 ft.Flexible StrategiesCommunication ImpactAppropriate MonitoringCompetent ValidationFocus – Facilitate – Follow Through+ Integration with Management systems
  12. 12. Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosSPECTREP x IConvergent(assessment)Divergent(brainstorming)Basic Trends / Driving Forces(fill the Hopper)(use the Bucket)Create Linkages / Amalgamate30 inches = Desk TopFor additional help and inspiration try my planning e-book - with my complimentsThe Elegant Strategist : david@andros.org
  13. 13. Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosSPECTRESocialPoliticalEconomicCulturalTechnologicalRegulatoryEnvironmental
  14. 14. Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosProbability X Impact When Objectivity is not possible . . .try controlled subjectivity! Discipline your thinking processes to evaluate theproducts of your subconscious mind (‘What if’s) Use the process to engage Dialogue techniquereview the Problem Solving Case Studyreview Dialogue / Active Listening
  15. 15. Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosStep-by-Step – 30 ins.Prework:1. Define Desired Outcomes / Key Questions - WHY?2. Set Scope and Timelines - WHEN?3. Identify Major Stakeholders / Interest Groups - WHO?Now you’re ready to begin!
  16. 16. Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosStep-by-Step4. Decide on Drivers / Assumptions for change - HOW? go to the Wall with Post Its fill the Hopper with ideas, then identify Important / Uncertain – retain in the Hopper! put Unimportant / Certain into the BucketObjective: Involvement / ParticipationTechnique: Brainstorming
  17. 17. Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosStep-by-Step5. Crystalize a viable Framework find the linkages that exist – Mind Mapping? refine the content to create patterns – strengthen the links use Dialogue technique (6 rules)Objective: ConsensusTechnique: Active Listening /Dialogue
  18. 18. Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosStep-by-Step6. Produce 7 to 9 mini-scenarios visualize the connections and limits (cartoon them!) identify what each group represents (engage humor!) use Dialogue techniqueObjective: Manageability / MemorabilityTechnique: Active Listening / Dialogue
  19. 19. Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosStep-by-Step7. Reduce to 2 or 3 Scenarios dialogue to consensus consider target audience create ‘primus entre pares’ / neutral focus test for viabilityObjective: CredibilityTechnique: Active Listening / Dialogue
  20. 20. Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosStep-by-Step8. Write Scenarios compelling stories – CHARM use all media fully - Audio / Visual / EmotionalObjective: Buy InTechnique: Write as you speak!
  21. 21. Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosStep-by-Step9. Identify Issues Arising seek branching / trigger points (what if . . .what then?) attach appropriate strategies as needed (contingencies)Objective: Common CuesTechnique: Consensus building
  22. 22. Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosFinal Comments When you’re dealing with the complex and unknown –trust your sub-conscious minds. Use structure, synergy and collaborationto manage your rational minds. Remember planning is an exercise in active leadershipFocus ; Facilitate ; Follow-through. and we learn best by ‘doing’ – try small steps and build.Thank you for the opportunity to contribute - David

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