Scenario PlanningCrafting ScenariosByDavid E C Huggins, MASc, FIoD, CMS
Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosSession Objectives: To establish a mindset for crafting Scenarios (30,000 feet) To examine a practical approach model (3,000 feet) To define techniques and process (300 feet) To plan for specific success (30 feet) and To detail the scenario plan for implementation (30 ins)
Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosInsight is Revelation -like a story, having Intellectual and Emotional ImpactScenarios are Stories. . . they have “plots”(Evolution; Revolution; Cycles; Infinite Expansion; Lone Ranger; Generation -culture / demographic P Schwartz). . . they have “CHARM”(Context; Heroes; Action; Results/Outcomes; Morals / Motifs DEC Huggins)
Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosConstruction – 300 ft.Prework1.Visualize Outcomes / Key Questions2.Set Scope and Timelines3.Identify Main Stakeholders > FormTeamAction Sequence1. Decide on Drivers for Change2. Bring together in viableframework3. Produce 7 to 9 initial mini-scenarios4. Reduce to 2 or 3 focal scenarios5. Draft scenarios6. Identify issues arising
Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosThe Need for Active Leadership – 30 ft.Flexible StrategiesCommunication ImpactAppropriate MonitoringCompetent ValidationFocus – Facilitate – Follow Through+ Integration with Management systems
Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosSPECTREP x IConvergent(assessment)Divergent(brainstorming)Basic Trends / Driving Forces(fill the Hopper)(use the Bucket)Create Linkages / Amalgamate30 inches = Desk TopFor additional help and inspiration try my planning e-book - with my complimentsThe Elegant Strategist : firstname.lastname@example.org
Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosProbability X Impact When Objectivity is not possible . . .try controlled subjectivity! Discipline your thinking processes to evaluate theproducts of your subconscious mind (‘What if’s) Use the process to engage Dialogue techniquereview the Problem Solving Case Studyreview Dialogue / Active Listening
Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosStep-by-Step – 30 ins.Prework:1. Define Desired Outcomes / Key Questions - WHY?2. Set Scope and Timelines - WHEN?3. Identify Major Stakeholders / Interest Groups - WHO?Now you’re ready to begin!
Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosStep-by-Step4. Decide on Drivers / Assumptions for change - HOW? go to the Wall with Post Its fill the Hopper with ideas, then identify Important / Uncertain – retain in the Hopper! put Unimportant / Certain into the BucketObjective: Involvement / ParticipationTechnique: Brainstorming
Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosStep-by-Step5. Crystalize a viable Framework find the linkages that exist – Mind Mapping? refine the content to create patterns – strengthen the links use Dialogue technique (6 rules)Objective: ConsensusTechnique: Active Listening /Dialogue
Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosStep-by-Step6. Produce 7 to 9 mini-scenarios visualize the connections and limits (cartoon them!) identify what each group represents (engage humor!) use Dialogue techniqueObjective: Manageability / MemorabilityTechnique: Active Listening / Dialogue
Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosStep-by-Step7. Reduce to 2 or 3 Scenarios dialogue to consensus consider target audience create ‘primus entre pares’ / neutral focus test for viabilityObjective: CredibilityTechnique: Active Listening / Dialogue
Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosStep-by-Step8. Write Scenarios compelling stories – CHARM use all media fully - Audio / Visual / EmotionalObjective: Buy InTechnique: Write as you speak!
Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosStep-by-Step9. Identify Issues Arising seek branching / trigger points (what if . . .what then?) attach appropriate strategies as needed (contingencies)Objective: Common CuesTechnique: Consensus building
Scenario Planning – Crafting ScenariosFinal Comments When you’re dealing with the complex and unknown –trust your sub-conscious minds. Use structure, synergy and collaborationto manage your rational minds. Remember planning is an exercise in active leadershipFocus ; Facilitate ; Follow-through. and we learn best by ‘doing’ – try small steps and build.Thank you for the opportunity to contribute - David