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1
August 13, 2013
David H. Stevens
President & CEO
Mortgage Bankers
Association
2
Rates
3
Outlook for 2013 and 2014
2012 2013 2014
GDP Growth 1.7% 1.8% 2.5%
Inflation 1.9% 2.2% 1.9%
Unemployment 8.1% 7.5% 7.0%
...
4
Estimated Originations 1990 to 2014: SF Market
Source: MBA – July 2013 Mortgage Finance Forecast
5
Recovery in Household Growth Has Only Just Begun
5
Foreign
Born
6
Minorities Will Drive Household Growth
Sources: JCHS 2010 Household Growth Projections and US Census Bureau, 2011 ACS
0%...
7
Wahington View: Role Oversized & Outdated
1ST Loss Position
8
Piling On
Real Estate Finance
System
Compliance
Rule
Making
Coker-Warner
Hensarling
FHA
Solvency
The
Federal
Reserve
QE3...
9
HMDA Data for 2011 Shows Net Exit From the Business
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20...
10
Credit Expanding On High End – Shrinking On Low
Source: MBA MPMA
Jan-Jun 2013 versus 2012 Purchase Tranche Analysis
201...
11
Retail Apps per Underwriter per Month
12
Broad Access to Credit
“The pendulum has swung too far the other way.”
~Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke, November 201...
13
Seat at the Table
14
1. Privatize and Recapitalize
•Shareholder Path
2. Receivership and Liquidation
•Hensarling
3. Shut Down and Replace
•C...
15
16
MBA’s Key Steps to GSE Reform
17
Why Now – Control Our Destiny
• Legislation Will Overtake Us
• G-Fee Tinkering
• Congress
• FHFA
• Transparency
• Compe...
18
Lead – Follow – Get Out Of The Way
Let’s Choose To Lead
19
Control Our Destiny
20
Control Our Destiny
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Mortgage Bankers Association CEO David Stevens Interview

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It was our pleasure to have Mortgage Banking Association President & CEO David Stevens at our annual conference at Boyne mountain this year. Please join the Mortgage Action Alliance to find out the latest news and help guide the historical changes coming out of Washington right now!

Click this link to stay informed with the mortgage action alliance http://www.mbaa.org/Advocacy/MortgageActionAlliance/MAASignup.htm

Read the The FHA Solvency Act of 2013 http://www.banking.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Files.View&FileStore_id=76ccb8b5-2cf3-4a3f-b40b-47f0b90aa957

Read the Corker-Warner Jumpstart GSE Reform Act.
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/113/hr2348/text

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Mortgage Bankers Association CEO David Stevens Interview

  1. 1. 1 August 13, 2013 David H. Stevens President & CEO Mortgage Bankers Association
  2. 2. 2 Rates
  3. 3. 3 Outlook for 2013 and 2014 2012 2013 2014 GDP Growth 1.7% 1.8% 2.5% Inflation 1.9% 2.2% 1.9% Unemployment 8.1% 7.5% 7.0% Fed Funds 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 10-year Treasury 1.8% 2.3% 3.0% 30-year Mortgage 3.7% 4.1% 5.0% Refi originations ($ B) 1,247 983 388 Purchase originations ($B) 503 589 703 New Home sales (thousand) 364 457 492 Existing home Sales (thousand) 4,634 5,043 5,389 Source: MBA July 2013 Forecast
  4. 4. 4 Estimated Originations 1990 to 2014: SF Market Source: MBA – July 2013 Mortgage Finance Forecast
  5. 5. 5 Recovery in Household Growth Has Only Just Begun 5 Foreign Born
  6. 6. 6 Minorities Will Drive Household Growth Sources: JCHS 2010 Household Growth Projections and US Census Bureau, 2011 ACS 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ACS 2011 Hispanic Asian/ Other Black, Non Hispanic White, Non Hispanic 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% JCHSLow Projection Household Growth, 2010-20Households
  7. 7. 7 Wahington View: Role Oversized & Outdated 1ST Loss Position
  8. 8. 8 Piling On Real Estate Finance System Compliance Rule Making Coker-Warner Hensarling FHA Solvency The Federal Reserve QE3 Basel IIIGSE Reform
  9. 9. 9 HMDA Data for 2011 Shows Net Exit From the Business 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500 9,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Number of Institutions Reporting HMDA Data Source: FFIEC
  10. 10. 10 Credit Expanding On High End – Shrinking On Low Source: MBA MPMA Jan-Jun 2013 versus 2012 Purchase Tranche Analysis 2013 shares 2012 Shares YTD Change YoY 2013_2012 <=150K 35.9% 40.6% -1.7% >150K and<=300 37.0% 36.7% 12.1% >300K and<=417k 14.7% 13.2% 24.0% >417K and<=625k 6.7% 5.3% 40.2% >625K and <=729k 1.9% 1.4% 51.8% >729K 3.9% 2.8% 57.0% 100.0% 100.0% 11.4%
  11. 11. 11 Retail Apps per Underwriter per Month
  12. 12. 12 Broad Access to Credit “The pendulum has swung too far the other way.” ~Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke, November 2012 “The average FICO score for denied applications in 2012 was 733 and the average LTV for denied applications was 81%.” ~Ellie Mae, January 2013 “Credit is achingly tight.” ~CFPB Director Richard Cordray, January 2013 Upon release of the Ability to Pay Rule “Too many families with solid credit who want to buy a home are being rejected.” ~President Obama State of the Union Address, January 2013
  13. 13. 13 Seat at the Table
  14. 14. 14 1. Privatize and Recapitalize •Shareholder Path 2. Receivership and Liquidation •Hensarling 3. Shut Down and Replace •Corker Warner •BPC •President •MBA Options Being Discussed
  15. 15. 15
  16. 16. 16 MBA’s Key Steps to GSE Reform
  17. 17. 17 Why Now – Control Our Destiny • Legislation Will Overtake Us • G-Fee Tinkering • Congress • FHFA • Transparency • Competition • Appeals To ALL Outcomes • Proactive – Not Head In The Sand • No Legislation Required • Fills In The White Board
  18. 18. 18 Lead – Follow – Get Out Of The Way Let’s Choose To Lead
  19. 19. 19 Control Our Destiny
  20. 20. 20 Control Our Destiny

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