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[DSC Europe 23] Luca Morena - From Psychohistory to Curious Machines

This document discusses how Nextatlas uses data analysis techniques like cultural analytics, culturomics, and machine learning on social media data to identify early adopters and emerging trends. It provides examples of Nextatlas partnering with Mondelez to integrate its insights and intelligence into Mondelez's foresight platform. This helped Mondelez successfully develop new product lines by identifying trends like the increasing popularity of mushrooms. The Mondelez strategist quoted praises Nextatlas for providing a more granular analysis of consumer trends that helps navigate today's flood of information.

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From Psychohistory to
DSC 23 - BELGRADE NOV 20 23
Luca Morena, CEO, Nextatlas
Jasm ina Nikolic, Client Service Director, New Mom ent
Psychohistory of
Are we approaching an era where, like Asim ov's Psychohistory, we
can thoughtfully predict the flow of society using the rich tapestry
of data analysis?
DSC 23 - BELGRADE NOV 20 23
“the analysis of m assive cultural data sets and flows using
com putational and visualization techniques”
LEV MANOVICH, CULTURAL ANALYTICS: VISUALIZING CULTURAL PATTERNS IN THEERA OF “MOREMEDIA”, DOMUS, 2009
Cultural Analytics
DSC 23 - BELGRADE NOV 20 23
Culturom ics
� � “possibly the greatest tim e- waster in the history of the Internet”
— Mother Jones
AIDEN, MICHEL ET AL. “QUANTITATIVEANALYSIS OF CULTUREUSING MILLIONS OF DIGITIZED BOOKS”, SCIENCE, 201
0
DSC 23 - BELGRADE NOV 20 23
Foresight
� Future- prepared firm s outperform ed the average by a 33%higher profitability
� Future- prepared firm s outperform the average by a 200%higher growth
� Firm s with deficiencies face with a perform ance discount of 37%to 1
08%.
(ROHRBECK, R., & KUM, M. E. (201
8). CORPORATEFORESIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON FIRM PERFORMANCE: A LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS. TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE, 1
29, 1
05- 1
1
6.)
DSC 23 - BELGRADE NOV 20 23
[DSC Europe 23] Luca Morena - From Psychohistory to Curious Machines

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[DSC Europe 23] Luca Morena - From Psychohistory to Curious Machines

  • 1. From Psychohistory to DSC 23 - BELGRADE NOV 20 23 Luca Morena, CEO, Nextatlas Jasm ina Nikolic, Client Service Director, New Mom ent
  • 2. Psychohistory of Are we approaching an era where, like Asim ov's Psychohistory, we can thoughtfully predict the flow of society using the rich tapestry of data analysis? DSC 23 - BELGRADE NOV 20 23
  • 3. “the analysis of m assive cultural data sets and flows using com putational and visualization techniques” LEV MANOVICH, CULTURAL ANALYTICS: VISUALIZING CULTURAL PATTERNS IN THEERA OF “MOREMEDIA”, DOMUS, 2009 Cultural Analytics DSC 23 - BELGRADE NOV 20 23
  • 4. Culturom ics � � “possibly the greatest tim e- waster in the history of the Internet” — Mother Jones AIDEN, MICHEL ET AL. “QUANTITATIVEANALYSIS OF CULTUREUSING MILLIONS OF DIGITIZED BOOKS”, SCIENCE, 201 0 DSC 23 - BELGRADE NOV 20 23
  • 5. Foresight � Future- prepared firm s outperform ed the average by a 33%higher profitability � Future- prepared firm s outperform the average by a 200%higher growth � Firm s with deficiencies face with a perform ance discount of 37%to 1 08%. (ROHRBECK, R., & KUM, M. E. (201 8). CORPORATEFORESIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON FIRM PERFORMANCE: A LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS. TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE, 1 29, 1 05- 1 1 6.) DSC 23 - BELGRADE NOV 20 23
  • 7. GIORGIA LUPI, 201 4 Nextatlas Sketches DSC 23 - BELGRADE NOV 20 23
  • 8. Our proprietary AI pinpoints innovators and early adopters on social m edia. This always- on, unbiased AI analysis uncovers em erging innovations before they reach the m ainstream Leveraging the Power of the Early Adopters Unbiased Audience Insights Im ages + Texts We apply NLP techniques with a proprietary Com puter Vision m odel to extract value from texts, im ages and to generate insights that are further enhanced with expert curation. Always- on Predictions We generate and constantly track future trends and behavioral shifts, delivering short, m edium and long term s predictions which are always up to date. Discovering Weak Signals Before They Go Mainstream We identify ‘weak’ signals of m ajor m arket shifts to uncover untapped opportunities. We set up bespoke analysis based on advanced consum er segm entation and the use of bespoke taxonom ies to enrich research outputs. DSC 23 - BELGRADE NOV 20 23
  • 9. DSC 23 - BELGRADE NOV 20 23 We leverage our m achine learning capacity to track and filter for users who are consistently ahead of the pack; a behind- the- scenes prediction scoring allows our AI to prioritize the users and profiles who been historically prescient in a given industry. Early Adopters Discovery 0 20 40 60 80 1 00 1 20 1 40 0 0.0001 0.0002 0.0003 0.0004 0.0005 0.0006 0.0007 PROPORTION OF TARGET EVENTS TIME Early Adoption Phase 1 st Burst Phase 2nd Burst Phase The exam ple above shows the adoption curve for the word “keto”. Candidate profiles discussing concepts such as this one (and dozens of others used as testers) before the 1 st burst phase are selected to enter in Nextatlas’s ongoing analysis. KETO
  • 11. DSC 23 - BELGRADE NOV 20 23 API Integration into Mondelēz FTR(Foresight Trend Research platform ). Nextatlas’s insights and intelligence form the bedrock of Mondelez's FTR platform . API Services for Mondelēz THEBUSINESS CASE
  • 12. DSC 23 - BELGRADE NOV 20 23 Mondelez’s FTRplatform has already helped the SnackFutures team to develop successful line extensions of som e of their in- house brands, as a line of nut butters infused with powdered m ushroom blends. This choice to include and focus on m ushroom s as a functional ingredient points directly to Nextatlas’s “Fungal Proliferation” trend , which explicitly directed the SnackFutures team to the increasing popularity of m ushroom s and their functional benefits. From Nextatlas to successful line extensions of in- house brands THEIMPACT I could not be happier with the team and the level of cooperation we have. Nextatlas data gives us a m ore granular level of consum er trends and an excellent quantification and m easurem ent for the trends that becom es m uch m ore im portant in today’s world, where we are flooded with a sea of inform ation. “ “ Serhiy Kalinovsky Strategic Foresight Lead Mondelez