                           Presented by: Daryn HardwickGraduate, Geography Department, Saint Cloud State University    F...
   Purpose    o To better understand winter climatology for the state of      Wisconsin   Hypothesis    o Ha = There has...
   Economic Benefits    o Winter Tourism - $7.9 billion annually    o Cold Water Fishing - $2.3 billion/year industry    ...
   The Impact of Snow/Winter Events on Humans:    o 23.4 deaths per year caused    o 161.7 injuries per year caused    o ...
   Decline in snow cover extent and duration    o Choi et al. 2010, Davies 1994, Dêry and Brown 2007   Great Lakes studi...
   Data    o National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Program        •   Precipitation, Snowfall, and Snow Depth    ...
   Station Homogeny – having <10% missing data over the    study period (Kunkel et al. 2009)    o 137/152 (90%) determine...
Season Average                                          Number of Events4.935 - 5.319                                     ...
Avg. Precipitation 1974-                                      Avg. Precipitation 1974-            2010                    ...
Precipitation Events 1974-                        Precipitation Events 1974-           2010                               ...
Season Average                                       Number of Events1.417 - 1.963                                        ...
Avg. Snowfall 1974-2010                                  Avg. Snowfall 1974-2007                                          ...
Snowfall Events 1974-                              Snowfall Events 1974-        2010                                      ...
Season Average1.775 - 2.5252.526 - 3.2753.276 - 4.0254.026 - 4.7754.776 - 5.5265.527 - 6.2766.277 - 7.0267.027 - 7.7767.77...
1974-2010 Trend                                               1974-2007 Trend                                             ...
Precipitation as Rain                                                           Precipitation as Rain Event               ...
Snowfall Trend , 1975-2010                                                                    Snowfall Events             ...
Precipitation/Snowfall Ratio Trend, 1975-2010                                    0.06                                    0...
   Increase in Winter Precipitation      o Significant at the ≥ 95% confidence level (p = 0.0001)   Increase in Winter S...
   Self Critiques    o Climate data inherently unreliable?    o Number of Events in a given season    o Are t-test’s suit...
Adams, R., L. Houston, and R. Weiher, 2004: The Value of Snow and Snow Information        NOAA NCDC Climate-Radar Data Inv...
       Contact: hada1102@stcloudstate.edu
Trends in Spatial and Temporal Variability of Snowfall Totals and Events in Wisconsin, 1974 - 2010
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Trends in Spatial and Temporal Variability of Snowfall Totals and Events in Wisconsin, 1974 - 2010

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Trends in Spatial and Temporal Variability of Snowfall Totals and Events in Wisconsin, 1974 - 2010

  1. 1.   Presented by: Daryn HardwickGraduate, Geography Department, Saint Cloud State University Faculty Advisors: Dr. Keith Rice, UWSP Geography Department Eugene Martin, UWSP Geography Department
  2. 2.  Purpose o To better understand winter climatology for the state of Wisconsin Hypothesis o Ha = There has been a decrease in both the amount of snowfall and individual snowfall events in the state of Wisconsin between 1974 and 2010. o Ho = There has been no change in the amount of snowfall or individual snowfall events in the state of Wisconsin between 1974 and 2010.
  3. 3.  Economic Benefits o Winter Tourism - $7.9 billion annually o Cold Water Fishing - $2.3 billion/year industry o Snowpack Water Storage saves between $2.3 - 348 billion/year Economic Costs o Snow Removal - $2 billion/year o Road Closures - $2.5 billion/year • Lost retail trade, wages, and tax revenue o Damage to Utilities • $2 billion lost in 1994 snow storm in Mississippi o Flooding • $4.7 billion lost in 1997 Red River flooding in ND and MN
  4. 4.  The Impact of Snow/Winter Events on Humans: o 23.4 deaths per year caused o 161.7 injuries per year caused o $484 million in damage caused annually Groundwater Recharge o Urie (1966) determined about 2/3 of yearly groundwater recharge contributed by winter precipitation
  5. 5.  Decline in snow cover extent and duration o Choi et al. 2010, Davies 1994, Dêry and Brown 2007 Great Lakes studies o Burnett et al. (2003) - increase in snowfall and both the lee and windward sides o Norton and Bolsenga (2007) – increase in lake-effect snowfall Wisconsin snowfall o Kunkel et al. (2009) – slight increase in snowfall
  6. 6.  Data o National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Program • Precipitation, Snowfall, and Snow Depth • October – April • 1974/75 – 2009/10 seasons • 152 weather stations, 11 out-of-state Analyses o Station Homogeny o Season Averages and Event Totals o Snowfall/Precipitation Ratio o Regression lines (trends)
  7. 7.  Station Homogeny – having <10% missing data over the study period (Kunkel et al. 2009) o 137/152 (90%) determined homogenous for precipitation o 120/152 (79%) determined homogenous for snowfall o 78/152 (51%) determined homogenous for snow depth o Only stations suitable in both precipitation and snowfall were used in final analysis, 117 stations (77%) 2008-2010 Seasons
  8. 8. Season Average Number of Events4.935 - 5.319 48.73 - 51.55.32 - 5.704 51.51 - 54.285.705 - 6.088 54.29 - 57.056.089 - 6.472 57.06 - 59.836.473 - 6.856 59.84 - 62.66.857 - 7.241 62.61 - 65.387.242 - 7.625 65.39 - 68.167.626 - 8.009 68.17 - 70.938.01 - 8.393 Avg. = 6.31167 (0.01 in./recorded day) 70.94 - 73.71 Avg. = 60.1371 days/season
  9. 9. Avg. Precipitation 1974- Avg. Precipitation 1974- 2010 2007 < -0.0175 -0.0175 - -0.0125 -0.0125 - -0.0075 -0.0075 - -0.0025 -0.0025 - 0.0025 0.0025 - 0.0075 0.0075 - 0.01 0.01 - 0.0125State Trend = 0.01063 (0.01 in./recorded day/year) > 0.0125 State Trend = - 0.00112 (0.01 in./recorded day/year)
  10. 10. Precipitation Events 1974- Precipitation Events 1974- 2010 2007 > -0.3 -0.3 - -0.2 -0.2 - -0.1 -0.1 - -0.005 -0.005 - 0.005 0.005 - 0.05 0.05 - 0.1 0.1 - 0.15 Avg. = 0.05314 days/season/year > 0.15 Avg. = - 0.02615 days/season/year
  11. 11. Season Average Number of Events1.417 - 1.963 17.5 - 21.321.964 - 2.508 21.33 - 25.132.509 - 3.053 25.14 - 28.953.054 - 3.599 28.96 - 32.773.6 - 4.144 32.78 - 36.594.145 - 4.689 36.6 - 40.44.69 - 5.235 40.41 - 44.225.236 - 5.78 44.23 - 48.045.781 - 6.325 Avg. = 2.30673 (0.1 in./recorded day) 48.05 - 51.86 Avg. = 26.8694 days/season
  12. 12. Avg. Snowfall 1974-2010 Avg. Snowfall 1974-2007 < -0.0175 -0.0175 - -0.0125 -0.0125 - -0.0075 -0.0075 - -0.0025 -0.0025 - 0.0025 0.0025 - 0.0075 0.0075 - 0.01 0.01 - 0.0125Avg. = 0.00151 (0.1 in./recorded day/year) > 0.0125 Avg. = - 0.0046 (0.1 in./recorded day/year)
  13. 13. Snowfall Events 1974- Snowfall Events 1974- 2010 2007 > -0.3 -0.3 - -0.2 -0.2 - -0.1 -0.1 - -0.005 -0.005 - 0.005 0.005 - 0.05 0.05 - 0.1 0.1 - 0.15Avg. = - 0.03975 days/season/year > 0.15 Avg. = - 0.12792 days/season/year
  14. 14. Season Average1.775 - 2.5252.526 - 3.2753.276 - 4.0254.026 - 4.7754.776 - 5.5265.527 - 6.2766.277 - 7.0267.027 - 7.7767.777 - 8.527 Avg. = 3.77435
  15. 15. 1974-2010 Trend 1974-2007 Trend < -0.0175 -0.0175 - -0.0125 -0.0125 - -0.0075 -0.0075 - -0.0025 -0.0025 - 0.0025 0.0025 - 0.0075 0.0075 - 0.0125 0.0125 - 0.0175Avg. = - 0.00529 (0.1 in./recorded day/year) > 0.0175 Avg. = - 0.00774 (0.1 in./recorded day/year)
  16. 16. Precipitation as Rain Precipitation as Rain Event Trend, 1975-2010 Trend, 1975-2010 0.1 1 0.8 0.08 0.6Trend (0.01 in./recorded day/year) 0.06 0.4 Trend (days/season/year) 0.04 0.2 0 0.02 -0.2 0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.02 -0.8 -0.04 -1 -0.06 -1.2 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 Latitude (degrees) Latitude (degrees)
  17. 17. Snowfall Trend , 1975-2010 Snowfall Events 0.08 Trend, 1975-2010 0.6 0.06 0.4Trend (0.1 in./recorded day/year) 0.04 0.2 Trend (days/season/year) 0 0.02 -0.2 0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.02 -0.8 -0.04 -1 -0.06 -1.2 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 Latitude (degrees) Latitude (degrees)
  18. 18. Precipitation/Snowfall Ratio Trend, 1975-2010 0.06 0.04Trend (0.1 in./recorded day/year) 0.02 0 -0.02 -0.04 -0.06 -0.08 -0.1 -0.12 -0.14 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 Latitude (degrees)
  19. 19.  Increase in Winter Precipitation o Significant at the ≥ 95% confidence level (p = 0.0001) Increase in Winter Snowfall o Not significant at the ≥ 95% confidence level (p = 0.3624) Decrease in Snowfall-to-Precipitation Ratio o Not significant at the ≥ 95% confidence level (p = 0.0526) Increase in Days with Precipitation o Significant at the ≥ 95% confidence level (p = 0.0365) Decrease in Days with Snowfall o Significant at the ≥ 95% confidence level (p = 0.0271) 2008-2010 Seasons o Anomaly or new trend?
  20. 20.  Self Critiques o Climate data inherently unreliable? o Number of Events in a given season o Are t-test’s suitable for climatic data? o Is 36 years enough for a climate study? Future Research o Investigate above critiques o Do El Niño or La Niña have an effect? o Spatial and temporal trends in temperature o Trends in Snow Cover and Snow Depth o Snowfall-to-Precipitation Ratio
  21. 21. Adams, R., L. Houston, and R. Weiher, 2004: The Value of Snow and Snow Information NOAA NCDC Climate-Radar Data Inventory, Cooperative Observer Program climate Services.Report prepared for NOAAs National Operational data, Data used: 1974-2010.Hydrological Remote Sensing Center. NOAA NWS Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, Natural HazardAssel, R. A., and D. M. Robertson, 1995: Changes in winter air temperatures near Lake Statistics, 1940- 2009. Michigan, 1851-1993, as determined from regional lake-ice records. Limnol. Oceanogr., 40(1), 165-176. NOAA NWS, Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics for 2000 in the United States, 2000, [3 pp.]Braham, R. R., and M. J. Dungey, 1984. Quantitative Estimates of the Effect of Lake Michigan on Snowfall. J. Climate and Applied NOAA NWS, Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics for 2001 in the United States, 2001, [3Meteorology, 23, 940- 949. pp.]Burnett A. W., M. E. Kirby, H. T. Mullins, and W. P. Patterson, 2003: Increasing Great NOAA NWS, Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics for 2002 in the United States, 2002, [3Lake- Effect Snowfall during the Twentieth Century: A Regional Response pp.]to Global Warming? J. Climate 16,3535-3541. NOAA NWS, Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics for 2003 in the United States, 2003, [3Choi, G., D.A. Robinson and S. Kang, 2010: Changing Northern Hemisphere snow pp.]seasons. Journal of Climate, 23, 5305-5310. NOAA NWS, Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics for 2004 in the United States, 2004, [3Davies, T. D., 1994. Snow Cover-atmosphere interactions. Intl. Association of pp.]Hydrological Sciences, Publ. No. 223, 3-13. NOAA NWS, Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics for 2005 in the United States, 2005, [3Déry, S. J., and R. D. Brown, 2007. Recent Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent pp.]trends and implications for the snow-albedo feedback. Geophys. Research Letters, 34, 1-6. NOAA NWS, Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics for 2006 in the United States, 2006, [3 pp.]Kunkel, K.E., M. Palecki, L. Ensor, K.G. Hubbard, D. Robinson, K. Redmond, and D.Easterling, 2009: Trends in 20th Century U.S. snowfall using a quality- NOAA NWS, Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics for 2007 in the United States, 2007, [4controlled data set. J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 26, 33-44. pp.]Kunkel, K. E., M. Palecki, K.G. Hubbard, D.Robinson, K. Redmond, and D. NOAA NWS, Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics for 2008 in the United States, 2008, [6Easterling, 2007: Trend identification in 20th Century U.S. snowfall: The Challenges. pp.]J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 24, 64-73. NOAA NWS, Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics for 2009 in the United States, 2009, [4Leathers, D. J., and D. A. Robinson, 1993. The Association between Extremes in North pp.] American Snow Cover Extent and United States Temperatures. J. of Climate, 6, 1345-1355. Norton, D. C., and S. J. Bolsenga, 1993. Spatiotemporal Trends in Lake Effect and Continental Snowfall in the Laurentian Great Lakes, 1951-1980. J. of Climate, 6,McCabe G. J., Clark M. P., and Serreze M. C., 2001: Trends in Northern Hemisphere 1943-1956.surface cyclone frequency and intensity. J. Climate 14, 2763–2768. NWS Weather Forecast Office, Cooperative Observer Program, 2009.
  22. 22.  Contact: hada1102@stcloudstate.edu

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