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The world at +4 c


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Presentation for lecture at Georgetown's Center for Security Studies analyzing the long range geopolitical, economic and business impacts resulting from climate change.

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The world at +4 c

  1. 1. Learning Objectives > Explore the long range geopolitical, economic and business implications of climate change. > Gauge ‘winners and losers’ from the ultimate zero-sum game. > Assess which sectors (and jobs) are ‘investment grade’ and will still be around. > Evaluate the differences between risk, readiness and resilience.
  2. 2. Welcome to Friedman’s hot, flat and crowded world. Climate-related impacts are being felt the world over: > 2014 was the hottest instrumentally recorded year in the U.S. > 2015 the hottest globally. > The largest El Niño ever recorded. > Warmest single day in the Arctic. > Largest recorded snowfall in Boston. > Named freak storms year round. Where are we now? *IPCC 2014 Synthesis Report.
  3. 3. We already crossed the tipping point The problem with reaching a tipping point, is finding equilibrium again. > Complex systems fail in complex ways. > We have entered an era where even the brightest minds are perplexed. > Political, military and business leaders are now contending with an uncomfortable ‘new normal.’ > The Pentagon’s national security strategy reflects climate change as a serious global threat. > COP 21 provides faint hope and global consensus.
  4. 4. Radical market changes in CO2 emissions are key There is reason for cautious optimism that a new breed of ‘Climate Robber Barons’ and Tech Titans are emerging. > Elon Musk is doing more to combat the scourge of the internal combustion engine than government mandated emission curbs. > The VW scandal would not have registered 20 years ago…today, it brought the world’s largest automaker to its knees. > Cheap oil and ‘disinterested’ U.S. foreign policy sets the stage for long range changes in the energy matrix. > The domino rally of felled resource giants is underway.
  5. 5. Maslow’s Pyramid and climate change One of the more insidious effects of climate change is how it is impacting global food production and staple commodity prices. > The spark that ignited the Arab Spring relates to increased grain prices added to a combustible mix of urbanization and youth unemployment. > Water, clean air and Maslow’s Pyramid are the objects of current and future geopolitical tensions. > Mass conflict and non-conflict human resettlement is afoot – shattering the Schengen agreement and straining resources and patience.
  6. 6. Long range things get unpleasant Anthropogenic impacts have irreversibly changed the Earth’s climate. It’s no longer a question of if, it’s now a question of how we will respond. > Long range models beyond 2100 call for extreme human adaptation and resettlement. > Misfortune, resilience and preparedness are new asset classes calling for trillions in investments. Risk is a cost, resilience is an investment. > +2 °C was once considered the tipping point, it now appears to be the temperature floor rather than ceiling. > Private sector firms devoted to this reality will be the Alphabets and GEs of the climate change era.
  7. 7. The evidence is real and global…
  8. 8. …the consequences increasingly severe and frequent
  9. 9. What would you do in a world without risk? Learning Objectives:
  10. 10. Welcome to a new geologic age, the Anthropocene, which scientist say began in the 1950s. By 2030 there will be 8.5 billion people on the planet. > More of humanity lives inside the circle than outside of it. > The balance of global economic output is titled toward emerging markets and south of the Equator – making this the ‘emerging market’s century.’ > Homo Urbanus presents both risks and opportunities for long term adaptation.
  11. 11. Economic output at risk (GDP@Risk) Pioneering research from Lloyd’s and Cambridge quantifies the impact of natural, man-made and emerging risks.
  12. 12. Move over Panama Canal… …there is a Northern open ocean route and undersea land grab underway.
  13. 13. Fortress America? Katrina was a ‘small’ category 3 hurricane and a completely predictable calamity. > It struck on the heels of the largest reorganization of the Federal Government and the creation of the Department of Homeland Security. > All systems (preventive and recovery-related) failed in a now famous cascade of errors. > New Orleans’ pre-Katrina population has not recovered. > Internally Displaced People (IDPs) are not merely found in conflict regions.
  14. 14. Vector-borne risks do not respect geography The map shows the expected range of Lyme disease…and can be applied to West Nile, Zika and a wide range of threats.
  15. 15. Dante A. Disparte Founder & CEO, Risk Cooperative Chair, Business for American Security Board Member, American Security Project Co-Author, Global Risk Agility and Decision Making (Macmillan, Q2, 2016) How to reach me? LinkedIn | Twitter: @ddisparte