Beyond Current Horizons


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An overview of the Beyond Current Horizons programme

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  • Beyond Current Horizons

    1. 1. Dan Sutch [email_address]
    2. 2. Common concerns about a lack of preparation for ‘the future’ in education <ul><li>In the end I like what we did, but I wouldn’t call it schools for the future. I’d call it schools for the very near future . So what was missing from my point of view was having some real ‘blue skies’ thinking and then reining it back into something that you could deliver in the next say, five or ten years. (Alsop Architects, talking about BSF exemplars) </li></ul><ul><li>We’re always just fire-fighting and thinking about next week – we need something to help us raise our sights to the longer term question of ‘what is this all for ’ (England, Children’s Services Director) </li></ul><ul><li>I have to plan, I have to make serious and long term decisions that will affect education in my local authority for the next 20 – 50 years – but I haven’t got any tools to help me think that far ahead, I have no idea what the possibilities might be (Local Authority Education Advisor) </li></ul><ul><li>What I’m worried about is that we are just taking for granted what ‘the future will be’, we’re not actually asking whether that is likely to happen or not , or what other things might happen, and if we’re not doing that, god knows if we’re actually preparing children in the right way (award-winning Head teacher, England) </li></ul>
    3. 3. <ul><li>Educational goals </li></ul><ul><li>Educational ‘personnel’ </li></ul><ul><li>Educational institutions </li></ul><ul><li>Educational methods </li></ul><ul><li>Educational tools </li></ul><ul><li>Educational outcomes </li></ul><ul><li>Beliefs about education </li></ul>Thinking about...
    4. 5. <ul><li>The BCH programme is aiming to build a challenging and long term vision for education in the context of socio-technological change 2025 and beyond </li></ul><ul><li>Long term futures programme intended to </li></ul><ul><li>Enhance the ‘futures thinking’ capacity of the UK education system </li></ul><ul><li>Inform current strategy, decision making and planning </li></ul><ul><li>Futurelab running the programme in partnership with DCSF </li></ul>
    5. 6. <ul><li>Not predictions ... </li></ul>
    6. 7. Multiple methods <ul><ul><li>Monitoring </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Existing trend data </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Horizon scanning – edge cases </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Expert Consultation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Interviews </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Commissioned science reviews </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Public and Stakeholder perceptions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>what people believe will happen, what people are working to make happen, what people want to happen </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>In order to.... </li></ul></ul>
    7. 8. Outcomes <ul><li>The BCH Scenarios </li></ul><ul><ul><li>6 scenarios mapping potential divergent futures for education, based upon the evidence and ideas generated in the programme </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Guidance on how to use these in strategy and planning activities – for head teachers, Local Authorities and others... </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The BCH Scenario Toolkit </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A suite of online tools that leads head teachers, Local Authorities and others through the process of future scenario development and use, including: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>defining questions, identifying key issues to consider, identifying key variables, building scenarios, testing policy options through scenarios </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The BCH Resource Bank </li></ul><ul><ul><li>All evidence from the programme collated in an easily accessible and searchable format, including </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Synopsis of evidence </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Scientific reviews </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Events and ideas generated </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consultation tools </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Links to further resources </li></ul></ul>
    8. 9. The 5 Challenges <ul><li>Generations and Life-course </li></ul><ul><li>Identities, Citizenship, Communities </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge, Creativity and Communication </li></ul><ul><li>Working and Employment </li></ul><ul><li>State/Market/Third Sector </li></ul><ul><li>Cross-challenge activities </li></ul><ul><li>Science and Technology Subgroup (review & cross-challenge involvement) </li></ul><ul><li>Demographics (Review) </li></ul><ul><li>Popular images of educational ‘futures’ – and how to challenge these (event) </li></ul><ul><li>Dealing with uncertainty and risk (review and event) </li></ul>
    9. 10. Generations and Life-course <ul><li>Professor Sarah Harper, Director of the Institute for the Future of Aging, Oxford University </li></ul><ul><li>What changes in families, inter-generational relationships and adult-child relationships might emerge 2025-2050 in interaction with developments in new technologies? </li></ul><ul><li>How might education respond? </li></ul>... By 2030 half the population will be over 50, one quarter over 65 ...ageing societies require the transfer of educational resources between young and old ... The role of “qualifications” will need to be re-examined ...”radical longevity” as family’s ‘active health’
    10. 11. Knowledge, Creativity and Communication <ul><li>Dr Carey Jewitt, Deputy Director, London Knowledge Lab </li></ul><ul><li>What new creative and communicative practices might emerge in the light of scientific and technological developments? </li></ul><ul><li>How might education respond? </li></ul>... Provigil and ‘cosmetic neurology’ ... Performance through smart drugs may require a trade off with creativity and originality ... New forms of sharing and communicating ... A change in what is perceived as important, new and necessary knowledge ... New ways of organising and representing knowledge
    11. 12. Identities, Citizenship and Communities <ul><li>Professor Helen Haste, University of Bath </li></ul><ul><li>How might developments in globalisation, migration and networked technologies inter-relate to lead to the creation or fragmentation of communities and cultures? </li></ul><ul><li>How might education respond? </li></ul>... Fertility rate that is below the replacement level and high levels of inward migration lead to a lower proportion of younger people and a more ethnically diverse ageing population ... Relationships between geographic, language-based, religious and virtual communities ... Online identities, avatars, virtual presence
    12. 13. Working and Employment <ul><li>Professor Rob Wilson, University of Warwick </li></ul><ul><li>How might technological and economic trends inter-relate to develop new working and employment practices ? </li></ul><ul><li>How might education respond? </li></ul>... Changing working hours and locations, and the implications for how schooling is organised ... Changing organisation of schooling, and the implications for working hours and locations ... Retirement based upon medical records not age ... Multi-generational workforces
    13. 14. State/Market/Third Sector <ul><li>Led by Futurelab </li></ul><ul><li>How might institutional and technological trends inter-relate to offer new forms of educational provision? </li></ul>... Education is likely to be pluralistically funded by individuals, communities, employers, governments and private enterprise ... Pressure groups as the new ‘opposition’ ... Role of industry members as ‘teachers’ ... Links between young people learning and workforce development
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    18. 19. Utilising existing networks and tools
    19. 20. Getting Involved ... <ul><li>Let us know - what are you working on now that will shape education between now and 2025? </li></ul><ul><li>What are your questions for the ‘Oracle at Delphi’ about 2025? </li></ul>
    20. 21. Dan Sutch [email_address]