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Thoughts on
Legal
Prediction
and Legal
Metrics
Metrics that Matter
Law Department Operations Meeting
@ computationalcomput...
Arc from
~
Quantitative
Legal
Prediction
The Age of
Quantitative Legal Prediction
2011
2011
The Age of
Quantitative Legal Prediction
2012
The Age of
Quantitative Legal Prediction
2012
Quantitative Legal Prediction 

- or - 

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Start
Preparing for the Data Driven Future of ...
The Science of Prediction
Prediction is
much harder
than backward
looking
measures
Implicit
Prediction is
taking place all
of the time
Humans
+
Machines
Humans
or
Machines
>
Two Key Ideas
About
Prediction
(1) Inverse Problem
(2) System Dynamics
Hypothesis Testing
is the Core of
Mainstream Science
Deduction
Popperian
Falsification
Partial or
Complete Induction
Is the Alternative
In Case You
Did not Know
This is an
Inductive
Age
This is the Age of Aspirational Spelling
(Is Spelling 1.0 Thinking?)
(a) Induce a Plausible
Model from Existing Data
(b) Validate Model
Either:
Out of Sample
Forward Prediction
Or Both
(2) System Dynamics
Imagine Two Different
Complex Systems
Weather
Tides
vs.
Complex/ Predictable Complex / Chaotic
TIDES ALMANAC
Some Formal Treatment of
the Science of Prediction
Big Data in Legal?
Road Map to the Future
Five
Concrete
Applications
in Legal
Prediction of
Case Outcomes
Better Pricing Forensics
Second Generation
“Predictive Coding”
Mapping of Deal Drafting
to Substantive Outcomes
How Do We Truly Measure
Attorney Quality
+
Performance?
Daniel Martin Katz
Illinois Tech – Chicago Kent Law
Associate Professor of Law
@ computational
computationallegalstudies.c...
Thoughts on Legal Prediction and Legal Metrics - Association of Corporate Counsel / Huron Consulting Meeting for Law Depar...
Thoughts on Legal Prediction and Legal Metrics - Association of Corporate Counsel / Huron Consulting Meeting for Law Depar...
Thoughts on Legal Prediction and Legal Metrics - Association of Corporate Counsel / Huron Consulting Meeting for Law Depar...
Thoughts on Legal Prediction and Legal Metrics - Association of Corporate Counsel / Huron Consulting Meeting for Law Depar...
Thoughts on Legal Prediction and Legal Metrics - Association of Corporate Counsel / Huron Consulting Meeting for Law Depar...
Thoughts on Legal Prediction and Legal Metrics - Association of Corporate Counsel / Huron Consulting Meeting for Law Depar...
Thoughts on Legal Prediction and Legal Metrics - Association of Corporate Counsel / Huron Consulting Meeting for Law Depar...
Thoughts on Legal Prediction and Legal Metrics - Association of Corporate Counsel / Huron Consulting Meeting for Law Depar...
Thoughts on Legal Prediction and Legal Metrics - Association of Corporate Counsel / Huron Consulting Meeting for Law Depar...
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Thoughts on Legal Prediction and Legal Metrics - Association of Corporate Counsel / Huron Consulting Meeting for Law Department Operations - Professor Daniel Martin Katz

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Thoughts on Legal Prediction and Legal Metrics - Association of Corporate Counsel / Huron Consulting Meeting for Law Department Operations - Professor Daniel Martin Katz

  1. 1. Thoughts on Legal Prediction and Legal Metrics Metrics that Matter Law Department Operations Meeting @ computationalcomputationallegalstudies.comprofessor daniel martin katz Sponsored By: Association of Corporate Counsel Huron Legal Consulting
  2. 2. Arc from
  3. 3. ~
  4. 4. Quantitative Legal Prediction
  5. 5. The Age of Quantitative Legal Prediction 2011
  6. 6. 2011 The Age of Quantitative Legal Prediction
  7. 7. 2012 The Age of Quantitative Legal Prediction
  8. 8. 2012
  9. 9. Quantitative Legal Prediction - or - How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Start Preparing for the Data Driven Future of the Legal Services Industry Daniel Martin Katz Assistant Professor of Law Michigan State University 2013
  10. 10. The Science of Prediction
  11. 11. Prediction is much harder than backward looking measures
  12. 12. Implicit Prediction is taking place all of the time
  13. 13. Humans + Machines Humans or Machines >
  14. 14. Two Key Ideas About Prediction
  15. 15. (1) Inverse Problem (2) System Dynamics
  16. 16. Hypothesis Testing is the Core of Mainstream Science
  17. 17. Deduction
  18. 18. Popperian Falsification
  19. 19. Partial or Complete Induction
  20. 20. Is the Alternative
  21. 21. In Case You Did not Know
  22. 22. This is an Inductive Age
  23. 23. This is the Age of Aspirational Spelling (Is Spelling 1.0 Thinking?)
  24. 24. (a) Induce a Plausible Model from Existing Data
  25. 25. (b) Validate Model
  26. 26. Either: Out of Sample Forward Prediction Or Both
  27. 27. (2) System Dynamics
  28. 28. Imagine Two Different Complex Systems
  29. 29. Weather
  30. 30. Tides
  31. 31. vs. Complex/ Predictable Complex / Chaotic TIDES ALMANAC
  32. 32. Some Formal Treatment of the Science of Prediction
  33. 33. Big Data in Legal?
  34. 34. Road Map to the Future
  35. 35. Five Concrete Applications in Legal
  36. 36. Prediction of Case Outcomes
  37. 37. Better Pricing Forensics
  38. 38. Second Generation “Predictive Coding”
  39. 39. Mapping of Deal Drafting to Substantive Outcomes
  40. 40. How Do We Truly Measure Attorney Quality + Performance?
  41. 41. Daniel Martin Katz Illinois Tech – Chicago Kent Law Associate Professor of Law @ computational computationallegalstudies.com danielmartinkatz.com lexpredict.com

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