1.
Thoughts on
Legal
Prediction
and Legal
Metrics
Metrics that Matter
Law Department Operations Meeting
@ computationalcomputationallegalstudies.comprofessor daniel martin katz
Sponsored By:
Association of Corporate Counsel
Huron Legal Consulting

2.
Arc from

3.
~

4.
Quantitative
Legal
Prediction

5.
The Age of
Quantitative Legal Prediction
2011

6.
2011
The Age of
Quantitative Legal Prediction

7.
2012
The Age of
Quantitative Legal Prediction

8.
2012

9.
Quantitative Legal Prediction
- or -
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Start
Preparing for the Data Driven Future of the
Legal Services Industry
Daniel Martin Katz
Assistant Professor of Law
Michigan State University
2013

10.
The Science of Prediction

11.
Prediction is
much harder
than backward
looking
measures

12.
Implicit
Prediction is
taking place all
of the time

13.
Humans
+
Machines
Humans
or
Machines
>

14.
Two Key Ideas
About
Prediction

15.
(1) Inverse Problem
(2) System Dynamics

16.
Hypothesis Testing
is the Core of
Mainstream Science

17.
Deduction

18.
Popperian
Falsification

19.
Partial or
Complete Induction

20.
Is the Alternative

21.
In Case You
Did not Know

22.
This is an
Inductive
Age

23.
This is the Age of Aspirational Spelling
(Is Spelling 1.0 Thinking?)

24.
(a) Induce a Plausible
Model from Existing Data

25.
(b) Validate Model

26.
Either:
Out of Sample
Forward Prediction
Or Both

27.
(2) System Dynamics

28.
Imagine Two Different
Complex Systems

29.
Weather

30.
Tides

31.
vs.
Complex/ Predictable Complex / Chaotic
TIDES ALMANAC

32.
Some Formal Treatment of
the Science of Prediction

33.
Big Data in Legal?

34.
Road Map to the Future

35.
Five
Concrete
Applications
in Legal

36.
Prediction of
Case Outcomes

37.
Better Pricing Forensics

38.
Second Generation
“Predictive Coding”

39.
Mapping of Deal Drafting
to Substantive Outcomes

40.
How Do We Truly Measure
Attorney Quality
+
Performance?

41.
Daniel Martin Katz
Illinois Tech – Chicago Kent Law
Associate Professor of Law
@ computational
computationallegalstudies.com
danielmartinkatz.com
lexpredict.com