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The trap of averages. How to avoid it in software development estimates

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The trap of averages. How to avoid it in software development estimates

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The next piece of software is to be developed as quickly as possible by two teams and they now have to answer how long it’s going to take. Team A says 5-8 months and Team B 6-9 months. But the department head is under pressure to give a date. He decides to simply take 7 months as the average of the two teams and so the rest of the project plan ends up based on averages. Basing on the book "The Flaw of Averages," this presentation explains why average-based plans fail on average and provides a way to avoid this trap at least when it comes to software development estimates.

The next piece of software is to be developed as quickly as possible by two teams and they now have to answer how long it’s going to take. Team A says 5-8 months and Team B 6-9 months. But the department head is under pressure to give a date. He decides to simply take 7 months as the average of the two teams and so the rest of the project plan ends up based on averages. Basing on the book "The Flaw of Averages," this presentation explains why average-based plans fail on average and provides a way to avoid this trap at least when it comes to software development estimates.

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