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Crime Throughout the Year in Broward County, Florida

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Final presentation by Team X, one of the groups of the DSI Summer Scholars bootcamp that analyzed data used in ProPublica's Machine Bias article.

Published in: Data & Analytics
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Crime Throughout the Year in Broward County, Florida

  1. 1. Crime Throughout the Year in Broward County, FL Group X: Chin-Wen Chang, Andrew Lee, Arpita Shah, Jenna Schoen
  2. 2. Research Questions - Interested in crime rates and various time variables - Do crime rates vary seasonally? - Do certain days of the year have spikes or dips in crime? - Are more crimes committed on the weekends? - Might the weather affect criminal activity? - Are certain types of crime correlated with any of these variables?
  3. 3. Data - Base dataset: “compas-scores-two-years” from ProPublica’s Compas Analysis - Restricted dataset to arrests in 2013 and 2014, and only used the first arrest (not recidivist or violent recidivist offenses) - Selected 5 of the most common types of crime (Drugs, Burglary, Grand Theft Auto, Battery, DUI) and manually grouped them (covered 55% of crimes) - Incorporated daily average temperature and precipitation for Broward County, FL, 2013-2014 (from the National Centers for Environmental Information)
  4. 4. Adjustment for Trend and Seasonality
  5. 5. Day of Year and Crime Frequency
  6. 6. Day of Week and Crime Frequency
  7. 7. Day of Week and Type of Crime
  8. 8. Temperature and Crime Frequency ...but Florida is always warm! Looks like a strong correlation between temperature and crime...
  9. 9. Avg. Crime Rate Adjusted for Temperature
  10. 10. Avg. Crime Rate Adjusted for Temperature
  11. 11. Precipitation and Crime Frequency …but precipitation introduces the same problem as temperature (most days are sunny in Florida)
  12. 12. Crime Rate Adjusted for Precipitation
  13. 13. Conclusions and Considerations - Need bigger data set to make more significant correlations (e.g. longer range of time, more counties in or outside of Florida) - Probably more difficult to find correlation between weather and crime in tropical rather than temperate regions - Worth keeping in mind that these are arrests, so police presence may play role in these correlations as well (e.g. if less police are on duty on Sunday or Christmas) - We can confidently conclude that in Broward County from 2013-2014: - Crime most frequent on Fridays and least frequent on Sundays; battery and DUI diverge from this pattern (frequent on Saturday and Sunday) - Dip in crime on Halloween and Christmas, spike in crime on Thanksgiving - Burglary not common when raining - Battery and drug crimes oddly seem to be more frequent in colder weather - Further questions: - Would we see different data in a different county prone to different types of crime? - Would we see different data in a different county with different weather and popular holidays?

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