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Valores a vigilar si china se descontrola

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La revista Inversión&Finanzas con la colaboración de DPM Finanzas EAFI ha publicado un artículo sobre el efecto de la crisis bursátil en China sobre algunas de las cotizadas españolas.

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Valores a vigilar si china se descontrola

  1. 1. #GUI'A DE LA INVERSIÒN ESTE VERANO VALORES A VIGILAR SI CHINA SE DESCONTROLA José Jiménex 3 @Pepilimenez La bolsa china pierde un 24 por ciento desde 10s mziximos que marcò a principios de junio. E1 gobierno ha tomado medidas pero 10s sîntomas de burbuja son muchos. Si e1 parqué chino se descontrola este Verano, estas son 1as compafiîas espafiolas mais expuestas. a bolsa de China esté para pocas bromas. Desde los màximos que alcanzò a me- diados de junio en los 5.166 puntos, e] Shangai Composite retro- cede un 24 por ciento, y eso que ha recuperarlo algo de terreno en las ùltimas sesiones. Hay elementos de burbuja por todos 10s lados, empe- zando por el hecho de que este indi- cador se dispari’) eI afio pasado un 150 por ciento con decenas de titu- 10s subiendo hasta el limite del 10 por ciento diario. «L0 peor es que 10s ahorradores chinos tienen el ma- yor nivel de apalancamiento de su historia», apunta Carlos Farreîs, di- recto de DPM Finanzas. Asi, invier- ten el dinero que no tienen, y no solo eso, porque dos terceras panes de 10s nuevos clientes (ciudadanos chinos) de 10s brékers no tienen ni 1a educaciòn primaria. El gobierno ha introdueìdo toda una bateria de medidas para frenar este descontrol, Como la suspensiòn de Ias salidas a bolsa, de Ias ventas en 36 Las claves venderà este ano en China 400 megavatios, el I3 ‘ por ciento de sus ventas de 4L D aerogeneradores. H I r1» China supone el 8 por ciento de la facturaciòn de Acerinox. Una derivada a tener v en cuenta es eI efecto indiretto ‘ , derivado de una caida de los precios del nîquel inducìda porla menor demanda china. China supone el 21 por ciento de Ias ventas. Este ‘T ano, Zara estima Ianzar la venta onlinea en Taiwan, Hong Kong y Macao. corto o el préstamo a 10s bròkers chi- nos para que compren acciones de 10s grandes valores. Esta misma semana incluso hemos conocido 1a creaciòn de un fondo gubemamental de emer- gencia para estabiljzar 10s precios de las acciones cuando el mercado mues tre sintomas de irracionalidad, una intetveneién en toda regla. Y aunque el mereado ha dado a1- gùn sintoma de estabflizacién, el ve- rano es largo y el parqué chino se puede volver a descontrolar. P0: e50, 1as cotizadas espafiolas con negocios en China afrontan un riesgo adicio- nal que hay que vigilar‘ N0 para des- hacer carteras pero si para tener en cuenta. «Salvo que 1a economia Chi- na se deteriore, parece que el impac- to sobre las empresas espafiolas seni limitado». Estas son a1gunas de las compafiias mais expuestas. GAMESA E1 fabricante de aerogeneradores Gamesa tiene centros productivos en Tianjin, su mayor base producto- Prlnled Ind dlslrlhuted by Presxkeader press render vresxneaaemam o +1504 zn 4604
  2. 2. Shangai Composite iiltimos I2 meses Dalcs m rum zhmns Furnle Bloumberg 4.4010 Baja desde los màximosde ‘. jUnIO l . A r g. i, ‘mi lrÀlflì l I1 E El li . E E El Il Il ra Fuera de Esparîa. «Como opera- dor gestiona mas de 3.000 megava- tios y cuenta con alianzas con opera- dores locales», explicajavier Flores, director del Servicio de Estudios de Asinver. «El mercado chino es im- portante para Gamesa, aunque el principal es el de India», apunta Irìi- go Recio, analista de Beka Finance. Este experto explica el importante compromiso de China con las ener- gias renovables (debido ala alta con- taminacién) con un ritmo de instala- cion de 20.000 megavatios al arîo. En este mercado, Gamesa actùa como «un productor de nicho», indica Re- cio, pues los grandes contratos se los llevan fabricantes ChiDOSA Aun asi, el volumen en China es de tal calibre que, segùn calcula Recio, Gamesa venderà este afio en China 400 mega- vatios, lo que supone el 13 por ciento de sus ventas de aerogeneradores. INDITEX Para Inditex, <<el mercado asiatico es importante, con un 21 por ciento de las ventas procedentes del mismo», explica Victoria Torre, directora del departamento de Analisis de Self- Bankr La multinacional gallega «ope- ra en muchos mercados maduros, por lo que una linea de desarrollo importante siempre ha estado en los emergentes», sostiene este expetta. Por ejemplo, Zara estima lanzar la ven- — ta online en ‘s, Taiwan, Hong r Kong y Macao en 2015. Javier Flo- . _ o ‘ . '> , o millones de inversores mantenlan posiciones en la bolsa china a fecha del pasado 10 dejulio. res, por su parte, admite que también puede tener un efecto indirecto por la desaceleracion y la bajada de las materias primas. ACERINOX De acuerdo con los datos de Flores, China supone el 8 por ciento de la facturacion de Acerinox. E1 fabri- cante espafiol suministra acero inoxidable submarino para el puen- te que une las regiones de Hong Kong, Zhuai y Macao, y desde 2008 se 11a volcado en el desarrollo de su red comercial en China. Otra deri- vada a tener en cuenta, como apunta Recio, es el efecto indirecto derivado de la caida de los precios del niquel, que es la materia prima basica que em pl e a 1 a compafiia pa- ra fabricar y y a c e r o in o X i d a - ble. Los , p r e c i o s del niquel ya llevan un des- censo impor- tante, y mas Nlilî Îx l NMlZPrS - N‘ ‘di’; Contener la caida El gobierno thìno ha Ianzado toda una baierla de medidas para (ontener la sangria en bolsa. Àsl, ha prohibido las salidas a bolsa, las operaciones en corto y hasta ha tomentado la compra de ‘blue chlps’ thinos para intentar frenar el desplome. Incluso ha crearlo un fondo (on dinero para intervenir en el mertado (uando rnuestre slntomas irraclonales. Con todo, en firmas (omo Citi piensan que a la calda todavla le queda mucho terreno por delante. que pueden seguir bajando si el cre- cimiento economico se enfria en China y baia la demanda de esta ma- teria prima. Es cierto que menores precios del niquel implican menores costes, pero el mercado tarda tiempo en ajustarse. Y si los clientes de Ace- rinox (no ya en (Ìhina sino en todo el mundo) intuyen que los precios de venta pueden ir a la baia, retrasa- ran su demanda. VISCOFÀN Otra comparîia que 11a puesto mu- cho interés en China es Viscofan, con la apertura de dos centros de produccion. La multinacional espa- rîola es el segundo operador del mer- cado, con una cuota que supera el 15 por ciento, Aunque la empresa no facilita su exposicion directa a China, Victoria Torre apunta que «tiene un porcentaje importante de ventas en Asia, cerca de un 16 por ciento». ARCELORMITTÀL Todo lo que le pase al gigante asiati- co afectara’ a ArcelorMittal, puesto que los chinos son el mayor consu- midor mundial de materias primas y el mayor Fabricante de acero del mundo. Si China crece menos de 1o esperado, explica Recio, «puede so- brar acero» que vaya a otras partes del mundo, lo que generaria des- equilibrios. En este caso, sos- tiene Torre, «no solo hay que mirar las ventas directas, sino la repercusion a nivel mun- dial que tendria una ralentiza- ciòn de la economia china». r‘. 37 m? Epress reader ccpvaraur un PIOYECIE Prlnted ma dlslrlhuted by Presxneîder

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