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PREDICTING THE TURN
D A V E K N O X
V S
V S
Digital
Marketing
Digital
Business Models
V S
Now it’s
about
managing
disruption.
It used to be
about fighting
over market
share.
Now it’s
digital as a model.
It used to be
digital as media.
Now it’s about
infinite shelves &
free shipping.
It used to
be about
shelf space.
“There is a dramatic leveling of the
playing field. The advantages of scale
that guaranteed success in the post-war
era ju...
T H E F L O P T H E T U R N T H E R I V E R
I
Venture
as R&D
II
Dominos
III
Total
Available
Market
IV
Market
Intelligence
I
Venture
as
R&D
I. Venture as R&D
Nestle
Marketing
Procter &
Gamble
Unilever PepsiCo Coca-Cola
R&D
20%
2%
2%
11%
8%
2%
12%
1%
4%
1%
Marketing vs R&D Budgets...
I. Venture as R&D
Marketing
lever PepsiCo Coca-Cola
R&D
8%
2%
%
1%
4%
1%
4.3B
15B
PhD and top technical talent are
increasingly looking to startups for the
opportunity to be part of the next big idea.
I. ...
II
DOMINOS
II. Dominos
29 Dominos
2625 27 28 29
Lorne Whitehead
II. Dominos
The speed of change is always
accelerating. And the dominos
will continue to fall closer and
closer to your bottom line.
I...
III
Total
Available
Market
III. Total Available Market
1920 2016
III. Total Available Market
“Saying that you’re aiming for x% of a
$ybn industry is unambitious — great
companies change the y, not the x.”
Benedict E...
IV
Market
Intelligence
IV. Market Intelligence
Subscription e-Commerce First Fundings
2010 2011 2012 2013
IV. Market Intelligence
“Develop a sense of how and when
the future will happen, and share
that foresight with key stakeholders
throughout the cor...
T H E T U R N
How do you Predict the Turn?
“We all know that if you swing for the
fences, you’re going to strike out a lot, but
you’re also going to hit some home ru...
…When you swing, no matter how well you
connect with the ball, the most runs you
can get is four. In business, every once ...
# T H E T U R N
Innovation
Driven
Acquisition
Invest
in Change
Partners
in Innovation
Disrupt
the Disruptors
“You can fight the end and that will probably
not turn out well. Or you can acknowledge
that this is happening. This is re...
Innovation Driven Acquisition
# T H E T U R N
MapMyFitness
Endomondo
MyFitnessPal
“We invest on the side of change.”
Marc Andreessen
Invest in Change
# T H E T U R N
Invest in Change
# T H E T U R N
Partners in Innovation
“Startups are like water. They will
take the easiest path down the hill.”
Phin Barnes - First Round...
Partners in Innovation
# T H E T U R N
“Everybody talks about disruption until
you actually f***ing disrupt something
and then everybody freaks the f*** out.”
Sh...
Disrupt the Disruptors
# T H E T U R N
C O M P A N Y A C Q U I R E I N V E S T P A R T N E R D I S R U P T T H E D I S R U P T O R
V E N T U R E S H A T C H - H ...
"The sooner you stop fighting the
present, the sooner you can get to
work on figuring out the future."
David Heinemeier Ha...
Predicting the Turn: The High Stakes Game of Business Between Startups and Blue Chips
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Predicting the Turn: The High Stakes Game of Business Between Startups and Blue Chips

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Predicting The Turn is your rule book for the new game of high-stakes business. As a brand marketer, venture investor, and startup advisor, author Dave Knox provides a one-of-a-kind worldview into the changing relationship between startups and Fortune 500 companies. Learn more at www.PredictingTheTurn.com

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Predicting the Turn: The High Stakes Game of Business Between Startups and Blue Chips

  1. 1. PREDICTING THE TURN D A V E K N O X
  2. 2. V S
  3. 3. V S
  4. 4. Digital Marketing Digital Business Models V S
  5. 5. Now it’s about managing disruption. It used to be about fighting over market share.
  6. 6. Now it’s digital as a model. It used to be digital as media.
  7. 7. Now it’s about infinite shelves & free shipping. It used to be about shelf space.
  8. 8. “There is a dramatic leveling of the playing field. The advantages of scale that guaranteed success in the post-war era just don’t matter very much when advertising is cheap, shelf space is infinite, and shipping is free.” The State of Technology at the End of 2016
  9. 9. T H E F L O P T H E T U R N T H E R I V E R
  10. 10. I Venture as R&D II Dominos III Total Available Market IV Market Intelligence
  11. 11. I Venture as R&D I. Venture as R&D
  12. 12. Nestle Marketing Procter & Gamble Unilever PepsiCo Coca-Cola R&D 20% 2% 2% 11% 8% 2% 12% 1% 4% 1% Marketing vs R&D Budgets of Largest CPG Companies I. Venture as R&D
  13. 13. I. Venture as R&D Marketing lever PepsiCo Coca-Cola R&D 8% 2% % 1% 4% 1% 4.3B 15B
  14. 14. PhD and top technical talent are increasingly looking to startups for the opportunity to be part of the next big idea. I. Venture as R&D
  15. 15. II DOMINOS II. Dominos
  16. 16. 29 Dominos 2625 27 28 29 Lorne Whitehead II. Dominos
  17. 17. The speed of change is always accelerating. And the dominos will continue to fall closer and closer to your bottom line. II. Dominos
  18. 18. III Total Available Market III. Total Available Market
  19. 19. 1920 2016 III. Total Available Market
  20. 20. “Saying that you’re aiming for x% of a $ybn industry is unambitious — great companies change the y, not the x.” Benedict Evans - “Ways to Think About Market Size” III. Total Available Market
  21. 21. IV Market Intelligence IV. Market Intelligence
  22. 22. Subscription e-Commerce First Fundings 2010 2011 2012 2013 IV. Market Intelligence
  23. 23. “Develop a sense of how and when the future will happen, and share that foresight with key stakeholders throughout the corporation. The ability to see the future of your industry before it happens.” Scott Lenet - co-founder of Touchdown Ventures IV. Market Intelligence
  24. 24. T H E T U R N How do you Predict the Turn?
  25. 25. “We all know that if you swing for the fences, you’re going to strike out a lot, but you’re also going to hit some home runs. The difference between baseball and business, however, is that baseball has a truncated outcome distribution… Jeff Bezos - Amazon, 2015 Shareholder Annual Letter
  26. 26. …When you swing, no matter how well you connect with the ball, the most runs you can get is four. In business, every once in a while, when you step up to the plate, you can score 1,000 runs.” Jeff Bezos - Amazon, 2015 Shareholder Annual Letter
  27. 27. # T H E T U R N Innovation Driven Acquisition Invest in Change Partners in Innovation Disrupt the Disruptors
  28. 28. “You can fight the end and that will probably not turn out well. Or you can acknowledge that this is happening. This is real, serious, and going to change your world.” Innovation Driven Acquisition John Zimmer - President and co-founder, Lyft # T H E T U R N
  29. 29. Innovation Driven Acquisition # T H E T U R N MapMyFitness Endomondo MyFitnessPal
  30. 30. “We invest on the side of change.” Marc Andreessen Invest in Change # T H E T U R N
  31. 31. Invest in Change # T H E T U R N
  32. 32. Partners in Innovation “Startups are like water. They will take the easiest path down the hill.” Phin Barnes - First Round Capital # T H E T U R N
  33. 33. Partners in Innovation # T H E T U R N
  34. 34. “Everybody talks about disruption until you actually f***ing disrupt something and then everybody freaks the f*** out.” Shane Smith - Founder of Vice Media Disrupt the Disruptors # T H E T U R N
  35. 35. Disrupt the Disruptors # T H E T U R N
  36. 36. C O M P A N Y A C Q U I R E I N V E S T P A R T N E R D I S R U P T T H E D I S R U P T O R V E N T U R E S H A T C H - H O U S E
  37. 37. "The sooner you stop fighting the present, the sooner you can get to work on figuring out the future." David Heinemeier Hansson - Creator of Ruby on Rails

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