DCR Trendline July 2013 – Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report


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Each month, DCR Workforce brings you greater insight into the temporary staffing market. The Trendline Report, offered to you at no charge, provides original research and cutting-edge analysis of contingent worker demand and supply, and predictive forecasts of wage trends. We provide the context you need to set the course for what happens next.

Inside This Issue:

DCR National Temp Wage Index
The Global Employment Sentiment
Paid Sick Leave: Productivity Lost or Employee Satisfaction?
Employment Projection in 2013
Big Data in the Workforce: Taming the Data Beast is Crucial for Survival

- See more at: http://blog.dcrworkforce.com/dcr-trendline-july-2013-contingent-worker-forecast-supply-report#sthash.Tj1IV9um.dpuf

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DCR Trendline July 2013 – Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report

  1. 1. “ “It’s already the third quarter of 2013! As we enter the second half of the year, TrendLine againbrings you key insights into the temporary staffing industry. Our thorough research on currenttrending themes and current events, along with our in depth analysis of contingent workersupply and demand gives you a pulse of the market.Our first piece, the DCR National Temp Wage Index, is a statistical tool designed to analyze wagetrends for contingent workers; and we analyze the figures further to provide you with reasonsfor market standing by relating them to current events and developments. This month, we payparticular attention to temp hiring trends and the most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)figures. Keep an eye out for our chart on employment trends by industry.The next article takes an international perspective, examining sentiments towards employmenton a global scale. While most of the world has mixed feelings towards employment growth, theAmericas might surprise you.We then delve into the hot-button topic of paid sick leave in the United States. Our analysislooks at both sides of the debate, amplified with real numbers from the Labor Department. Ourconcluding article this month is close to the hearts of our researchers, as they hone in on thesignificance of big data in workforce management. Look for our profiling of one of the leadingbig data technologies.Ammu WarrierAmmu Warrier, PresidentInside this IssueNote from the EditorDCR National Temp Wage IndexThe Global Employment SentimentPaid Sick Leave: Productivity Lost orEmployee Satisfaction?Employment Projection in 2013Big Data in the Workforce: Tamingthe Data Beast is Crucial for SurvivalMethodology12567814“Boundaries between extendedworkers and permanentemployees have started to blurand likely will continue to doso” ~David Gartside, AccentureREPORT # 11 | January 2013TRENDLINEContingent Worker Forecast and Supply ReportNote from the EditorTrend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 1Report # 17 | July 2013
  2. 2. “Despite a volatile economy, the volume of temporary workers continues to increase. This may be partly due to theincreasing participation of foreign-born workers, who score high on employability in occupations like production,transportation, material moving, natural resources, construction and maintenance.In 2012, the median usual weekly earnings of foreign-born full-time wage and salary workers were $625, as comparedto $797 for native-born Americans. These lower wages lead to an easily employable population (16.1 percent of theU.S. civilian labor force population are foreign born), possibly leading to negative or slow growth of wages.Among the foreign-born workers, Asians had an unemployment rate of 5.7% in 2012, substantially lower than the ratesfor foreign-born blacks (11.1%), Hispanics (9.1%) and whites (7.1%). Among native-born Americans, the jobless ratesfor blacks (at 14.3%) were higher than the rate for Hispanics (11.5%), Asians (6.7%) and whites (6.6%).According to the latest report from the Labor Department, the United States added 175,000 jobs in May, comparedwith 149,000 jobs in April. An ADP survey shows that small businesses added 58,000 jobs in May, up from 32,000 jobsin April – though still below the 129,000 per month average at the start of 2006.Trend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 2DCR National Temp Wage IndexHiring Outlook Positive““
  3. 3. To meet weekend sales demand and labor cost pressures, Wal-Mart is hiring more and more temp workers. While the companyhas opened more stores in recent years, their U.S. staffing has remained relatively flat. A survey by Reuters of 52 Wal-Mart storesfound that 27 were hiring only temporary workers, while another 20 were hiring a combination of regular full-time and art-timepositions along with temp workers. The temporary workers are often being hired on 180-day contracts and are paid the sameAccording to company spokesperson, David Tovar, nearly 10% of Wal-Mart’s U.S. workforce is temporary (compared with 1 to 2percent prior to 2013). Wal-Mart CEO, Bill Simons, confirmed the inclusion of more temp workers in the company’s workforcemix, saying “Their hours flex by the needs of the business from time to time.” Industry experts predict that this hiring strategywill save Wal-Mart money by trimming labor costs and also help to shield them against a potential rise in healthcare costs dueto the upcoming health care reform.It remains to be seen if other retailers will follow Wal-Mart’s lead in employing more temporary workers. According to Bureauof Labor Statistics reports, retail employment grew in May of 2013, with 28,000 jobs added, out of which 10,000 were in generalmerchandise stores.Temp workforce employment of high-skilled professions, such as doctors, lawyers and university professors, is also on the rise.According to Pam Tolbert, Chair of the Department of Organizational Behavior at Cornell University, the number ofprofessionals employed on a contractual basis is rising. Adjunct professors teach and do research at one institution for yearsbut are not eligible for tenure, a permanent position where a professor cannot lose his job for researching a contentious issue.Tolbert predicts that 40 to 50% of faculty at some institutions is now adjunct.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that there are 3.8 million jobs waiting to be filled, and 40% of them are in the South. Thisis well below the pre-recession average of 4.5 million openings a month in 2007.Research from the National Bureau of Economic Research finds that “recruiting intensity” has been low – employers are postingjobs but not proactively trying to fill them.In the healthcare industry, locum tenens (doctors who work through temp agencies) spending grew 7% to $2.1 billion from 2011to 2012, according to Staffing Industry Analysts.starting pay as other workersDCR National Temp Wage IndexTrend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 3Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.: Employment Destination for TempsRamp Up in High-skilled Temp Workers3.8 Million Jobs Waiting to be Filled“When people think of temp workers they think of blue collar, house cleaners, contractors, etc., but in fact the phenomenon is muchmore pervasive and growing” ~Pam Tolbert, Cornell University.“Hiring temps is one strategy that retailers could use to mitigate the potential rise in healthcare costs due to the new healthcare carelaw. Another strategy could be employing more part-time workers.” ~Neil Trautwein, National Retail Federation““““
  4. 4. DCR National Temp Wage IndexTrend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 4Unemployment is still high at 7.5% in April,which is 11.7 million people, a ratio of 3.1job seekers for every opening. The New YorkTimes attributes this to a large problem inthe labor market where a persistently weakeconomy causes employers to be hesitantabout adding new workers.UnemploymentStubbornly HighNumber of Unemployed Workers per Job PostingThe hiring rate (number of hires as a percentage of total open-ings), according to BLS figures, remains at 3%. Hiring is greatestin wholesale trade and transportation, warehousing and utilities,professional and business services, education and health services,and health care and social services.Industry Employment TrendsChange in Employment in April to May 2013
  5. 5. Unpredictability of economic conditions, impact from talent shortages, and the mismatch in required skills and skill availability areall weighing on the minds of employers across the world.In 17 countries, including Spain, Greece and the United States, hiring intentions strengthened as compared to the previous quarter.Hiring intentions remained unchanged in four economies and weakened in 21, including France, China and India.Asia-Pacific is expected to grow across all eight countries, despite India reporting its weakest forecast in eight years and China’soutlook is also at its weakest since Q1 of 2010.Europe has a mixed employment sentiment, with southern Europe facing major employment challenges. Overall, uncertainty reignsin Europe, as the French economy slips into recession, with Sweden reporting its first negative forecast in four years, and Belgiumis at its weakest in over three years. Greece, however, is showing signs of improvement for the fourth consecutive quarter, despitereporting negative hiring intentions, and the United Kingdom is cautiously optimistic with the strongest hiring report since Q3 2008.U.S. employers in all 50 states, Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico have reported positive hiring plans.The Global Employment SentimentTrend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 5
  6. 6. Many states and cities have recently passed regulations requiring employers to provide sick days for workers. New York, the latestregion to join such cities as Seattle, Washington D.C., and San Francisco, passed a law this May requiring businesses with over 20employees to provide five paid sick days beginning April 2014. Businesses with 15 and more workers will have until October of2015 to comply.Currently, there are no federal legal requirements for paid sick leave. For companies subject to the Family and Medical Leave Act(FMLA), the Act does require unpaid sick leave however. FMLA provides for up to 12 weeks of unpaid leave for certain medicalsituations for either the employee or a member of the employee’s immediate family. In many instances, paid leave may be substi-tuted for unpaid FMLA leave.Paid Sick Leave: Productivity Lost or Employee Satisfaction?Trend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 6“About one-third of all workers do not have access to paid sick days” ~U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics““Paid Sick Leave by RegionPaid Sick Leave by Sector
  7. 7. The legal enforcement of paid sick leaves has prompted a debate among employers, advocates and legislators.Supporters believe that mandatory paid sick leaves will help prevent the spread of diseases by allowing workers who are ill or havea sick child to stay home without the fear of losing wages or a job. Other supporters view the issue as a matter of work-life balance.Some employers oppose the regulations arguing that their costs will increase, resulting in less hiring and possible layoffs. Thisopposition has even driven some states to overturn paid sick leave laws.However, according to Eileen Appelbaum, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, the offering of paidsick leaves is a one-time cost spike of 2 percent in payroll costs.According to Steve Wojcik, vice president of public policy for the National Business Group on Health, most large employers alreadyhave policies of generous paid leaves. He feels that making it legally mandatory is an unnecessary administrative burden.Employment Projection in 2013Trend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 7“Many countries have had a national conversation around ‘How do we make it possible for people to care for kids and the elderly andbe productive employees?’ We are having a conversation in this country today that is 40 years overdue. The general attitude here whenyou say, ‘My kid has a fever’ is: ‘You took the job, you knew you had a kid, you figure out how to get here.’” ~Eileen Appelbaum, Centerfor Economic and Policy Research““Paid Sick Leave by Company SizeTwo Opposing Viewpoints
  8. 8. Big Data in the Workforce: Taming the Data Beast is Crucial for SurvivalTrend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 8What Does it Mean for Recruiters?Where is the Gap?The application of big data in the workforce industry is gaining momentum as the gap between skills required and skills availableincreases, coupled with the global uncertainty in economic conditions and its impact on both employers and employees.With increased access to information sharing via social media and a growing number of job portals, the flow of information is morerapid, generating huge volumes of data.The HR function and the workforce industry, both of which are heavily dependent on skilled workers at a global level, are nowstarting to look actively at leveraging information regarding hiring and talent decisions from this large mass of data, which increasesevery day.Talent information is no longer simply limited to a resume – it has now spread to social sources such as LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter,personal blogs, websites, and online surveys as well as exchanges of emails, phone calls, etc.Now a recruiter is in a better position to find talent and conduct a thorough evaluation before deciding to hire. However, this is onlypossible when all the data elements are arranged in a structured layout available as and when the recruiter needs it.Getting the required information faster and in a user-friendly format is all about harnessing big data through different ways andmeans.A large majority of those employed in Human Resource functions lack the data analytic skills or statistical background needed to sortthrough and use this large pool of data. Historically, HR and analytics are considered to be separate subject areas, but leveragingusable information from big data requires both skillsets. HR as a function needs to be transitioned from a reactive to proactivestance. In order to gain the maximum benefits from big data, HR should liaison with IT and other groups to meet their analysisrequirements or incorporate analytical skills internally to develop matrices and metrics useful for the organization. The activeinclusion of big data analysis in the HR function will help HR executives to predict market sentiments and formulate businessstrategies. While most HR departments rely on skilled team members to conduct predictive analysis, succession planning and otherfunctions, these efforts are almost always focused exclusively on permanent employees, thus omitting a sometime large portion ofthe workforce.
  9. 9. Where is Data Useful?Where Do We Stand Now?Technology ProfileTrend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 9Big Data in the Workforce: Taming the Data Beast is Crucial for SurvivalA conventional Human Resource Information System (HRIS) lacks the capability to measure talent or deliver the insights thatcompanies need. Fast and updated hiring information from multiple sources is a huge challenge, requiring a systemintegration of a traditional HRIS with big data information feeds from multiple sources, along with a fast information-processinginfrastructure.Big data and its impact can be broadly classified into volume, velocity and variety. Big data is a combination of structure andunstructured data, and currently we only look at 10% of the entire population of data (all structured). The ratio of structured tounstructured is 1:9.Generally, there are four steps to a ‘data to decision’ approach: 1) Acquire 2) Organize 3) Analyze 4) Decide. The mostchallengingstepsaretoorganizeandanalyzebecausethemulti-dimensionaldatafrommultiplesourcesneedstobestructuredforfurther analysis.Among the different database systems that handle big data, the open source software framework, Hadoop is a leader formany reasons, including its computational paradigm (MapReduce) and exception distributed file system (HDFS). Hadoop copiesmultiple replicas of data blocks and distributes them on compute nodes throughout a cluster to enable a rapid and reliablecomputation of big data. Hadoop can handle all types of data from disparate systems – structured, unstructured, pictures,audio files, email, log files, and more – regardless of native format. In addition, Hadoop has a cost advantage compared to otherproviders as it is deployed on industry standard servers rather than expensive specialized systems.Hadoop has grown more rapidly than other big data application frameworks due to its usage by major companies such as Yahoo,Google and IBM, along with mid-level and small startups. Hadoop’s scalable, cost-effective, flexible, and fault-tolerant solutionis already changing the dynamics of large scale computing• A more efficient and data-driven hiring process• Positioning a company to find talent as needed• Finding the right talent in any geography• Determining wages• Background verification through social media• Optimizing the hiring turnaround time
  10. 10. Top Ten Big Data VendorsJob Trends for Big Data Application Companies(Source: Indeed.com)(Source: Forbes)A recently published Wikibon report, “Big Data Vendor Revenue and Market Forecast, 2012-2017” lists over 60 big data vendors witha 2012 total revenue of over $11 billion. These are the top ten big data vendors that drive a hundred percent of their revenues frombig data products and services.Trend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 10Big Data in the Workforce: Taming the Data Beast is Crucial for Survival
  11. 11. MethodologyTrend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 14Sourceshttp://www.bls.gov/news.release/forbrn.nr0.htmhttp://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/chi-walmart-temporary-workers-20130613,0,4015060.storyhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brucejapsen/2012/05/15/demand-for-temporary-doctors-rises-amid-worsening-physician-shortage-obamacare-looming/http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/93456-professional-temporary-workers-on-the-rise/http://www.workforce.com/article/20130604/NEWS01/130609992/paid-sick-leave-solving-a-health-issue-or-another-burden-on#http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ebs2.t06.htmhttp://www.indeed.com/jobanalytics/jobtrends?q=Hadoop%2C+mangodb%2C+greenplum%2C+HBase%2C+cassandra&l=http://www.forbes.com/sites/gilpress/2013/02/22/top-ten-big-data-pure-plays/http://profit.ndtv.com/news/economy/article-hiring-outlook-positive-in-us-weakens-in-india-survey-323252http://www.bigdataconclave.comhttp://www.philly.com/philly/business/small_business/20130617_Businesses_are_hiring_again__but_cautiously__with_eye_on_economy.htmlhttp://www.watchlistnews.com/2013/06/16/retail-hiring-picks-up-in-may-on-hound-com/http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htmhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/16/opinion/sunday/dont-blame-the-work-force.html?_r=0http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/biz-beat/2013/jun/14/employers-looking-fill-38m-jobs/http://www.cloudera.com/content/cloudera/en/why-cloudera/hadoop-and-big-data.html
  12. 12. About DCR WorkforceTrend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 15DCR Workforce is an award winning, best-in-class service provider for contingent workforce and servicesprocurement management. Our proprietary SaaS platform (SMART TRACK) assists in providing customizable VMSand MSP Solutions to manage, procure and analyze your talent with complete transparency, real-time control, highperformance and decision-enabling business intelligence.DCR Workforce serves global clientele including several Fortune 1000 companies. Customers realize greaterefficiencies; spend control, improved workforce quality and 100% compliance with our services.For more information about DCR Workforce and its Forecasting Toolkit (Rate, Demand, Supply and Intelligence)including Best Practice Portal, visit dcrworkforce.comFor more information call +1-888-DCR-4VMS or visit www.dcrworkforce.comPublic Relations:Debra Bergevine508-380-40397815 NW Beacon Square Blvd. #224 Boca Raton, FL 33487debra.bergevine@dcrworkforce.com | sales@dcrworkforce.com | marketing@dcrworkforce.comwww.dcrworkforce.com | blog.dcrworkforce.comfacebook.com/DCRWorkforce linkedin.com/company/dcr-workforce twitter.com/DCRWorkforce© 2013 DCR Workforce, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DCR Workforce and Smart Track are Registered Trademarks. CCO — 082912