Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Strategies to Lock in Milk and Feed Prices- Dave Byers

7,190 views

Published on

Dave Byers presented this during DAIReXNET's August 18, 2008 webinar on Surviving High Feed Cost.

Published in: Education
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Strategies to Lock in Milk and Feed Prices- Dave Byers

  1. 1. Strategies with Future Corn, Soybean Meal and Milk Prices Dave Byers [email_address] Galax, VA
  2. 2. Bull/Bull Market <ul><li>Someone who thinks market prices will rise </li></ul><ul><li>A period of rising prices </li></ul>
  3. 3. Bear/Bear Market <ul><li>Someone who thinks market prices will decline </li></ul><ul><li>A period of declining market prices </li></ul>
  4. 4. What Lies Ahead? <ul><li>The BIG QUESTION in the financial markets is to know, </li></ul><ul><li>People want a financial “Crystal Ball” </li></ul><ul><li>What will be the price of corn, SBM and milk </li></ul><ul><ul><li>3 months </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>6 months </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>12 months </li></ul></ul>
  5. 6. What Lies Ahead? <ul><li>Nevertheless, there are systems that attempt to predict </li></ul><ul><li>Two main schools in the financial markets: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fundamental Analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Technical Analysis </li></ul></ul>
  6. 7. Fundamental Analysis <ul><li>Looks at economic factors, known as fundamentals </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dollar </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Acres coming out of CRP </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Number of ethanol plants coming into production </li></ul></ul><ul><li>In short, it examines the forces of supply and demand </li></ul>
  7. 8. Technical Analysis <ul><li>Looks at the price movement of a commodity and uses this data to predict its future movements </li></ul><ul><li>Extensive use graphs of data to “make invisible visible”--called chartists </li></ul>
  8. 9. Key to Technical Analysis <ul><li>Identifying a trend </li></ul><ul><li>In fact, technical analysis can be summed up in the saying, “The trend is your friend.” </li></ul><ul><li>Future price movement is MORE LIKELY to be in the same direction as the trend </li></ul>
  9. 10. Technical Analysis <ul><li>Something that has always fascinated me </li></ul><ul><li>In recent years, I have found it a useful tool to increase profitability of dairy operations </li></ul><ul><li>I send weekly commodity updates dealing with corn, soybean meal, and milk to clients and other interested individuals </li></ul>
  10. 11. Bullish alignment “ Technical buy” signals
  11. 14. Interest in Commodity Reports <ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>No charge--the price is right </li></ul>

×