While we believe that investors should always focus on the long term, we recognize that there is always a great deal of interest in happenings in the market place. With that in mind we publish a brief market update each quarter. Here you will find updates for the second quarter of 2017.- F5 Financial Planning
2. Quarterly Market Review
Second Quarter 2017
Overview:
Market Summary
World Stock Market Performance
World Asset Classes
US Stocks
International Developed Stocks
Emerging Markets Stocks
Select Country Performance
Select Currency Performance vs. US Dollar
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Commodities
Fixed Income
Impact of Diversification
Quarterly Topic: When Rates Go Up, Do Stocks Go Down?
This report features world capital market performance
and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins
with a global overview, then features the returns of
stock and bond asset classes in the US and
international markets.
The report also illustrates the impact of globally
diversified portfolios and features a quarterly topic.
13. Commodities
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Second Quarter 2017 Index Returns
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index is not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. Securities and commodities data provided by Bloomberg.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return declined
3.00% during the second quarter.
The livestock and grains complexes led quarterly
performance, with lean hogs returning 14.44%, live
cattle 8.59%, wheat (Chicago) 15.95%, and wheat
(Kansas) 17.82%.
Softs was the worst-performing complex, with sugar
and coffee declining 18.76% and 12.79%, respectively.
Cotton also experienced a decline, decreasing 9.44%.
Period Returns (%)
Asset Class YTD 1 Year 3 Years** 5 Years** 10 Years**
Commodities -5.26 -6.50 -14.81 -9.25 -6.49
* Annualized
-0.91
-0.99
-1.05
-1.89
-2.93
-6.90
-7.46
-9.44
-9.60
-9.69
-10.41
-10.51
-10.68
-12.79
-18.76
17.82
15.95
14.44
8.59
2.58
1.17
0.53
Kansas wheat
Wheat
Lean hogs
Live cattle
Soybean oil
Copper
Corn
Soybeans
Gold
Zinc
Soybean meal
Aluminum
Nickel
Heating oil
Cotton
Natural gas
Silver
Brent oil
Unleaded gas
WTI crude oil
Coffee
Sugar
Ranked Returns for Individual Commodities (%)
16. When Rates Go Up, Do Stocks Go Down?
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Should stock investors worry about changes in
interest rates?
Research shows that, like stock prices, changes in interest rates and
bond prices are largely unpredictable.1 It follows that an investment
strategy based upon attempting to exploit these sorts of changes isn’t
likely to be a fruitful endeavor. Despite the unpredictable nature of interest
rate changes, investors may still be curious about what might happen to
stocks if interest rates go up.
Unlike bond prices, which tend to go down when yields go up, stock
prices might rise or fall with changes in interest rates. For stocks, it can
go either way because a stock’s price depends on both future cash flows
to investors and the discount rate they apply to those expected cash
flows. When interest rates rise, the discount rate may increase, which in
turn could cause the price of the stock to fall. However, it is also possible
that when interest rates change, expectations about future cash flows
expected from holding a stock also change. So, if theory doesn’t tell us
what the overall effect should be, the next question is what does the
data say?
Recent Research
Recent research performed by Dimensional Fund Advisors helps provide
insight into this question.2 The research examines the correlation
between monthly US stock returns and changes in interest rates.3
Exhibit 1 shows that while there is a lot of noise in stock returns and no
clear pattern, not much of that variation appears to be related to changes
in the effective federal funds rate.4
Second Quarter 2017
1. See, for example, Fama 1976, Fama 1984, Fama and Bliss 1987, Campbell and Shiller 1991, and Duffee 2002.
2. Wei Dai, “Interest Rates and Equity Returns” (Dimensional Fund Advisors, April 2017).
3. US stock market defined as Fama/French Total US Market Index.
4. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend funds maintained at the Federal Reserve to another depository institution overnight.
Monthly US stock returns are defined as the monthly return of the Fama/French Total
US Market Index and are compared to contemporaneous monthly changes in the
effective federal funds rate. Bond yield changes are obtained from the Federal
Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Exhibit 1. Monthly US Stock Returns against Monthly Changes in
Effective Federal Funds Rate, August 1954–December 2016
17. When Rates Go Up, Do Stocks Go Down?
Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors LP.
Results shown during periods prior to each Index’s index inception date do not represent actual returns of the respective index. Other periods selected may have different results, including losses. Backtested index performance is
hypothetical and is provided for informational purposes only to indicate historical performance had the index been calculated over the relevant time periods. Backtested performance results assume the reinvestment of dividends and
capital gains.
Eugene Fama and Ken French are members of the Board of Directors for and provide consulting services to Dimensional Fund Advisors LP.
There is no guarantee investment strategies will be successful. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal.
All expressions of opinion are subject to change. This article is distributed for informational purposes, and it is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement of any particular security, products, or services.
For example, in months when the federal funds rate rose, stock returns
were as low as –15.56% and as high as 14.27%. In months when rates
fell, returns ranged from –22.41% to 16.52%. Given that there are many
other interest rates besides just the federal funds rate, Dai also examined
longer-term interest rates and found similar results.
So to address our initial question: when rates go up, do stock prices go
down? The answer is yes, but only about 40% of the time. In the
remaining 60% of months, stock returns were positive. This split between
positive and negative returns was about the same when examining all
months, not just those in which rates went up. In other words, there is not
a clear link between stock returns and interest rate changes.
CONCLUSION
There’s no evidence that investors can reliably predict changes in interest
rates. Even with perfect knowledge of what will happen with future
interest rate changes, this information provides little guidance about
subsequent stock returns. Instead, staying invested and avoiding the
temptation to make changes based on short-term predictions may
increase the likelihood of consistently capturing what the stock market
has to offer.
GLOSSARY
Discount Rate: Also known as the “required rate of return,” this is the
expected return investors demand for holding a stock.
Correlation: A statistical measure that indicates the extent to which two
variables are related or move together. Correlation is positive when two
variables tend to move in the same direction and negative when they tend
to move in opposite directions.
INDEX DESCRIPTIONS
Fama/French Total US Market Index: Provided by Fama/French from
CRSP securities data. Includes all US operating companies trading on the
NYSE, AMEX, or Nasdaq NMS. Excludes ADRs, investment companies,
tracking stocks, non-US incorporated companies, closed-end funds,
certificates, shares of beneficial interests, and Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
(Permco 540).
(continued from page 16)
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