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CrossborderInforma: Tijuana Security Trends 1H-2012 (Aug 2012)


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August 2012 CrossborderInforma briefing by Crossborder Group: a snapshot of selected security trends in Baja California, but focusing on Tijuana -- data that may lead some to believe it's time to reassess the rhetoric often used about a "drug war" and "violence" within that city. Data presented include a national-level security perception survey, Baja California state and Tijuana crime trends, a comparison of homicide rates in selected US and Mexico cities during the first half of 2012 (Jan.-June), and results from a multi-year security perception survey applied by Crossborder Group at the San Diego-Tijuana Ports of Entry.

CrossborderInforma briefings are issued 1-2 times each month, covering a variety of economic, industry, and policy-related issues in Mexico and along the US-Mexico border region. For more information, please contact our firm at Answers[at]CrossborderBusiness[dot]com, or call us toll free at 1-888-4XBORDER [888-492-6733]. Have a Mexico or NAFTA question? We can help.

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CrossborderInforma: Tijuana Security Trends 1H-2012 (Aug 2012)

  1. 1. C r o ss bo r de r I N F O R M A | R e s e ar c h • A n al y s is • I n sig h t sSecurity Trends in Tijuana (1H-2012): Time to Reassess Rhetoric? Unbiased business, industry and policy market research, strategies and market-entry services for Mexico and the NAFTA/CAFTA marketplace
  2. 2. August 27, 2012Crossborder Group is pleased toprovide this CrossborderINFORMAbriefing of key indicators and surveyresults – one of the many ways our firmoffers data and insights about businessand policy issues along the US-Mexicoborder region and throughout Mexico.This CrossborderINFORMA briefing isfocused on Security Trends in Tijuanaand Baja California during the first-half of 2012 (January-June).
  3. 3. MEXICO PUBLIC SECURITY PERCEPTION INDEX (2009-2012)Throughout a majority (although not all) areas of Mexico, the publicperceptions of security are starting to improve.• As seen below, INEGI’s monthly survey of 32 metro areas, Índice de Percepción sobre la Seguridad Pública, has on average been showing an overall positive trend since early-2011:
  4. 4. BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TIJUANA: TOTAL CRIME INCIDENTS• Particularly within the State of Baja California and the City of Tijuana, data from the State’s Secretaría de Seguridad Pública shows a significant decrease in total crime incidents (violent & non-violent)…• Comparing the average monthly total crime incidents during peak months in 2008 to 2012’s first six months, Baja California experienced a -21.8% decrease and Tijuana a -31.5% decrease…
  5. 5. COMPARISON: CITY HOMICIDE RATES* 1H-2012 (ANNUALIZED) • In fact, continuing its decline from 2011, the homicide rate* for Tijuana through the first-half of 2012 now puts it significantly under a number of well-known cities within the United States • Not only is the 1H-2012 homicide rate for Tijuana similar to many cities considered relatively “safe”, it is also less than half of that for the City of Monterrey • Also of note: the 1H-2012 homicide rate* for Ciudad Juarez is now below that of the City of East St. Louis, IL* Research by Crossborder Group: Homicide victim data from police/law enforcement & multiple media sources for Jan-Jun2012; pop. estimates use 2011 US Census, Mexico estimates based on 2010 Censo & 2011 ENOE; homicide rate annualized (i.e.:6 mo. rate times 2)
  6. 6. COMPARISON: TIJUANA & CHICAGO MONTHLY HOMICIDES• As another point of comparison: During the 12 months between July 2011 and June 2012, the City of Tijuana actually had 23% fewer homicides than the City of Chicago• In fact, while Chicago is admittedly larger than Tijuana*, the Windy City recorded more homicides in 10 of the 12 months covered by this analysis * Chicago has approximately 2.7M residents; Tijuana has approximately 1.7M residents
  7. 7. AT-BORDER SURVEYS 2008-2012: PERCEPTIONS CHANGING • One last point: over several years, Crossborder Group has asked US- residing border crossers coming from Tijuana to assess their perceived security while visiting Baja CA. As seen below, there has been a considerable shift in sentiment by US-residing border crossers • While in 2008, around 48% indicated feeling “very” or “somewhat” insecure, by April 2012 that number had dropped to only 16%Survey data from Crossborder Group’s At-Border Surveys, conducted between 2008 and 2012; participants randomly selected from US- andMexico-residing individuals crossing northbound at San Ysidro and Otay Mesa POEs; only results for US-residing participants shown above
  8. 8. For more insights into Mexico’s securityand safety related issues; tourism; bordercrossings; crossborder manufacturing,retail, and logistics; or other issues alongand across the Mexico-US border, contactthe team at Crossborder Group… Mexico or border questions? Hire us. 1-888-4XBORDER [888-492-6733] answers@crossborderbusiness.comOr…follow us by clicking on the icons below:
  9. 9. A FEW OF CROSSBORDER’S CLIENTS …and many others – contact us today to find out how we can help.