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Predição espacial do ácaro vermelho-das-palmeiras no brasil sob cenários atual e futuros de mudanças climáticas

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Seminário "Ciência e Tecnologia para a Defesa Agropecuária"

O evento aconteceu nos dias 7 e 8 de dezembro de 2016 e abordou a situação atual, desafios e avanços científicos relacionados às principais pragas e doenças que ameaçam a estabilidade da produção à luz dos novos rumos da defesa agropecuária brasileira.
O programa teve foco nas revisões e artigos científicos publicados no número temático “Pesquisa, Desenvolvimento e Inovações Frente a Ameaças Sanitárias para a Agropecuária” da revista Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira (PAB) de maio de 2016.

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Predição espacial do ácaro vermelho-das-palmeiras no brasil sob cenários atual e futuros de mudanças climáticas

  1. 1. Spatial forecasting of red palm mite in Brazil under current and future climate change scenarios Denise Navia, Emília Hamada, Manoel Guedes Correa Gondim Jr. & Norton Polo Benito Predição espacial do ácaro vermelho das palmeiras no Brasil sob‑ ‑ ‑ cenários atual e futuros de mudanças climáticas
  2. 2. Mudanç as Climáticas Espé cies Invasoras &  entre os quatro principais “propulsores” (drivers) para as mudanças globais e para a perda da biodiversidade  ambos, isoladamente ....  podem afetar a produção, levando à redução das colheitas e à provisão de serviços ecossistêmicos  grande preocupação para a segurança alimentar !!!! O que ocorre quando estes dois fatores interagem ???
  3. 3. Mudanças Climáticas podem agravar o impacto causado pelas Espécies Invasoras Exóticas em Agroecossistemas e em Ambientes Naturais!!! número de invasores & severidade dos danos....
  4. 4. Five Potential Consequences of Climate Change for Invasive Species  mecanismos de introdução e transporte alterados  alteração na distribuição de espécies invasoras presentes  estabelecimento de novas espécies invasoras  alteração no impacto de espécies invasoras presentes  alteração na eficiência de estratégias de controle Hellman et al. 2008
  5. 5. O ácaro vermelho das palmeiras, Raoiella indica Hirst, praga invasora nas Américas - Histórico
  6. 6. O ácaro vermelho das palmeiras no Brasil Julho 2009. Boa Vista, Roraima Roraima 2010/2011 Manaus, Amazonas Agosto 2011
  7. 7. Objetivos predizer a distribuição espacial do ácaro vermelho das palmeiras no Brasil nos cenários atual e futuros de mudanças climáticas Objetivo geral Objetivo específico prover informações sobre as áreas de maior risco fitossanitário para uma “praga quarentenária presente” no Brasil, no presente e no futuro, visando orientar a adoção de medidas de prevenção e definição de estratégias de controle; minimizar o impacto da praga invasora nos agroecossistemas e áreas naturais no país.
  8. 8. M & M definição de faixas de favorabilidade de temperatura e UR para a praga a partir de dados de biologia e estudos de dinâmica populacional da praga organização de dados climatológicos no presente e em cenários futuros para o Brasil •normais climatológicas (1961-1990) – Climate Research Unit •médias mensais de temperatura e UR IPCC– Data Distribution Centre of the Intergovernamental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) •modelos B1 e A2 (menor e maior emissão de gases do efeito estufa, respectivamente), para os períodos de 2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100 –(IPCC, 2015) construção de mapas de distribuição geográfica da favorabilidade para o estabelecimento da praga
  9. 9. M & M
  10. 10. Resultados & Discussão apontadas as áreas com condições favoráveis ao estabelecimento de populações do ácaro vermelho das palmeiras – a cada mês – predição de dinâmica populacional por todo o país principais Região produtora de coco – Nordeste (80com extensas áreas muito favoráveis ao ácaro vermelho das palmeiras  redução de áreas desfavoráveis à praga nos cenários futuros de mudanças climáticas áreas pouco favoráveis ou favoráveis passam a ser muito favoráveis
  11. 11. Resultados & Discussão Figure 1. Maps of favorability for the red palm mite Raoiella indica in Brazil, from January to April, for the climatological normal from 1961–1990 and future climates (2020, 2050, and 2080) in scenarios A2 and B1.
  12. 12. Figure 2. Maps of favorability for the red palm mite Raoiella indica in Brazil, from May to August, for the climatological normal from 1961–1990 and future climates (2020, 2050, and 2080) in scenarios A2 and B1.
  13. 13. Figure 3. Maps of favorability for the red palm mite Raoiella indica in Brazil, from September to December, for the climatological normal from 1961–1990 and future climates (2020, 2050, and 2080) in scenarios A2 and B1.
  14. 14. Figure 4. Graphs showing variations in the favorability levels for the red palm mite Raoiella indica in Brazil along the year for the climatological normal from 1961– 1990 and future climates (2020, 2050, and 2080) in scenarios A2 and B1.
  15. 15. Análise Crítica - Validação da Predição ! 2016 Maio 2015, Dracena, oeste de São Paulo Setembro 2015, Londrina, Maringá, Marialva, Sarandi, norte do Paraná
  16. 16. Análise Crítica - Validação da Predição !
  17. 17. Perspectivas refinamento das análises a partir de dados biológicos mais detalhados – temperatura ótima, máxima, mínima para os diversos estágios de desenvolvimento da praga validação da metodologia no cenário climático atual aplicação para outras pragas quarentenárias presentes ou ausentes mapas de favorabilidade de estabelecimento podem ser utilizados como subsídio para: • Análise de Risco de Pragas • estudos de impacto econômico potencial • priorização de áreas foco para o desenvolvimento de estratégias de controle
  18. 18. OBRIGADA Denise Navia denise.navia@embrapa.br

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