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Tracing the Causal Loops: Local Perceptions of Changing Food Systems in Northern Ethiopia

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Tracing the Causal Loops: Local Perceptions of Changing Food Systems in Northern Ethiopia

  1. 1. Tracing
 causal loops through local perceptions of food systems in Northern Ethiopia Masterclass 26/06/2019
 School of Humanities & Languages
 UNSW Arts and Social Sciences dr. Crelis Rammelt
 (c.f.rammelt@uu.nl)
 Utrecht University
  2. 2. eggs (1981) 1 chickens (1982) 1 eggs (1982) 1 chickens (1983) 1 eggs (1983) 1chickens (1981) 1 chickens (1981) 2 eggs (1982) 2 chickens (1982) 2 eggs (1983) 2 chickens (1983) 2eggs (1981) 2 statistical, empirical, time-lagged correlations ... ... Chickens, Eggs, and Causality, or WhichCame First? Walter N. Thurman and Mark E. Fisher Time-series evidence from the United States indicates unidirectional causality from eggsto chickens. Key words: causality, chickens, eggs. Granger's seminal paper entitled "Investi- gating Causal Relations" has spawned a vastand influential literature. In macroeconomics, for example, the causal relationship This measure excludes chickens raised only for meat. Eggs are measured in millions of dozens and include all eggs produced annually
  3. 3. s o o crime self- determination poverty resentment correlation is not causation os o HGDC FE causal links: same, opposing and delayed
  4. 4. os o HGDC FE causal links: same, opposing and delayed s o o crime self- determination poverty resentment causation despite lack of correlation
  5. 5. s s o s s individual farmer profit market price of tomatoes total tomatoe supply individual farmer tomatoe sales rural roads delayed contradictory effects s s o ZYX delayed contradictory effect
  6. 6. s s chickens eggs eggs (1981) 1 chickens (1982) 1 eggs (1982) 1 chickens (1983) 1 eggs (1983) 1chickens (1981) 1 chickens (1981) 2 eggs (1982) 2 chickens (1982) 2 eggs (1983) 2 chickens (1983) 2eggs (1981) 2 statistical, empirical, time-lagged correlations ... ...
  7. 7. s o demand for eggs price of eggs B lowering/rising demand leads to lowering/rising price [2] rising/lowering price leads to lowering/rising demand [1] s s number of chickens number of eggs increasing/decreasing chickens lead to increasing/decreasing eggs R increasing/decreasing eggs lead to increasing/decreasing chickens Other examples: ‘the rich get richer’, ‘power begets power’, ‘self-amplifying beliefs’… Other examples: ‘when you’re hungry you eat’, ‘maintaining homeostasis’, ‘self-correcting thermostat’…
  8. 8. os so s s supplydemand price desired consumption production capacity B B time 15 20 demand supply
  9. 9. time 15 20 demand supply (no frictions) supply (strong frictions) os so s s supplydemand price desired consumption production capacity B B
  10. 10. s s s s o cloud cover albedo (reflectivity of Earth) atmospheric temperature evaporation B [5] [4] R [1] [2][3]
  11. 11. o o o o labour migration (according to farmer) labour availability (according to farmer) mechanisation (according to farmer) mechanisation (according to labourer) job opportunities (according to labourer) labour migration (according to labourer)
  12. 12. o o o o labour migration labour availability mechanisation job opportunities o o o o labour migration (according to farmer) labour availability (according to farmer) mechanisation (according to farmer) mechanisation (according to labourer) job opportunities (according to labourer) labour migration (according to labourer) 1 + 1 = 3
  13. 13. Africa - Ethiopia Kilte Awlaelo - May Quiha and Adi Kisandid (Tabias) Tigray - Kilte Awlaelo and Raya Azebo (Woredas) Ethiopia - Tigray (Regional State) Raya Azebo - Were Abaye and Hade Alga (Tabias)
  14. 14. 5 Kilte Awlaelo - May Quiha and Adi Kisandid (Tabias) Bet Kirkos (Kushet) Tabia centre
  15. 15. 5 “the road is our bloodline”, “roads lead to heaven”, “the road is development”, “the road is life”. o o s o s s economic growth price fluctuations spatial isolation rural roads poverty and inequality
  16. 16. 5 “A round-trip to Mohoni in the past would take about four days. Now it is possible to complete all the activities and come back within a day” (M/31, 28-02-15, Were Abaye). “In the past, we used to walk all the way to Mohoni. Nowadays, we are connected to the main road from where we can use transportation services” (F/58, 01-03-15, Hade Alga). “We don’t have transportation facilities. Had there been more bus stops and vehicles up to this point, then you wouldn’t see people walking” (M/40, 24-02-15, May Quiha). transportation services rural roads mobility and accessibility
  17. 17. 5 Rural roads may bring benefits to all, but their distributional effects are subtler, concealed and delayed. Could this lead to ‘hidden’ dynamics that may worsen rather than reduce social inequities? “Those who have money can use public buses” (M/67, 19-02-15, Adi Kisandid). “People who don't have money can go more comfortably on foot” (M/67, 01-03-15, Were Abaye).
  18. 18. mobility and accessibility investment mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility water depletion carrying capacity input adoption external labour supply local labour supply labour wages labour demand capital irrigation land managed food sold profits revenue food prices food transportation to markets food on farms food production B B B R B B R R B B R B R B ‘supporting’ link: ‘opposing’ link:
  19. 19. “Agricultural production has improved. One of the reasons is that the road gave access to fertiliser” (M/43, 23-02-15, May Quiha).
  20. 20. “In the past, we used irrigation water from the river that comes down the mountain. Now, people upstream have different crops, especially onion and fruit trees. As a result, the water is not coming to this downstream area anymore” (M/70, 27-02-15, Were Abaye).
  21. 21. “I sometimes buy and use improved seeds in one year and again reuse harvested seeds. However, new seeds are always better” (M/41, 23-02-15, May Quiha). ‘‘If there is shortage of moisture, the improved seeds are more susceptible to drought than local seeds” (M/ 41, 23-02-15, May Quiha).
  22. 22. ‘‘coffee and khat were already here [before the road was constructed in the late 1990s]. The other crops, like fruit, were introduced after that” (M/31, 28-02- 15, Were Abaye).
  23. 23. “Because of road developments and irrigation expansion, people are engaging in growing similar types of crops. This has a negative impact on price” (M/20, 19-02-15, Adi Kisandid).
  24. 24. !24 1. Employer/surplus HHs (~20%) 2. Labourer/subsistence HHs (~50%) 3. Mixed producer/labourer HHs (~30%) Wealth category Poor
 (D1-D5) Middle
 (D6-D8) Better-off
 (D9-D10) cultivated land (ha) 0,28 0,915 1,973 livestock (TLU) 1,73 3,42 5,47
  25. 25. “We have farm activities, but we also have those who are in need of jobs. They need to travel to Wukro and other areas, so the road is important” (M/60, 24-02-15, May Quiha). ‘‘the road benefits more the poor. If the road and transportation are available, the poor will have a lot of opportunities to engage in different day-labouring and business activities, to move here and there” (F/40, 28-02- 15, Were Abaye).
  26. 26. “Compared to other areas, there are more opportunities here” (M/ 40, 27-02-15, Hade Alga). ‘‘Yes, the rich also have a lot of opportunities in terms of employing different people… when there are a lot of labourers, the employers decrease the wage rate. Sometimes it’s 100 birr and sometimes it’s 80 birr per day. In the worst case it can go down to 30 birr per day” (F/40, 28-02- 15, Were Abaye).
  27. 27. “Construction work in urban areas is very competitive. There are a lot of workers” (M/20, 20-02-15, Adi Kisandid). “When I go to Wurko for work, I will stay there for one or two months… I will try to save some money to bring back to my family” (M/19, 23-02-15, May Quiha).
  28. 28. ‘‘So the mobility itself is development. If I sell at a better price, I can produce more intensively” (M/57, 24-02-15, May Quiha).
  29. 29. s s s o s sbirths deathspopulation fertility rate mortality rate time population R B R dominates R dominates B dominates Because systems often have several competing feedback loops operating simultaneously, those loops that dominate the system will determine the behaviour (Meadows 2008). Meadows & Wright (2008) Thinking in systems: A primer.
  30. 30. mobility and accessibility investment mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility water depletion carrying capacity input adoption external labour supply local labour supply labour wages labour demand capital irrigation land managed food sold profits revenue food prices food transportation to markets food on farms food production B B B R B B R R B B R B R B
  31. 31. mobility and accessibility investment mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility water depletion carrying capacity input adoption external labour supply local labour supply labour wages labour demand capital irrigation land managed food sold profits revenue food prices food transportation to markets food on farms food production B B B R B B R R B B R B R B
  32. 32. mobility and accessibility investment mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility water depletion carrying capacity input adoption external labour supply local labour supply labour wages labour demand capital irrigation land managed food sold profits revenue food prices food transportation to markets food on farms food production B B B R B B R R B B R B R B
  33. 33. mobility and accessibility investment mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility water depletion carrying capacity input adoption external labour supply local labour supply labour wages labour demand capital irrigation land managed food sold profits revenue food prices food transportation to markets food on farms food production B B B R B B R R B B R B R B
  34. 34. mobility and accessibility investment mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility water depletion carrying capacity input adoption external labour supply local labour supply labour wages labour demand capital irrigation land managed food sold profits revenue food prices food transportation to markets food on farms food production B B B R B B R R B B R B R B
  35. 35. mobility and accessibility investment mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility water depletion carrying capacity input adoption external labour supply local labour supply labour wages labour demand capital irrigation land managed food sold profits revenue food prices food transportation to markets food on farms food production B B B R B B R R B B R B R B
  36. 36. mobility and accessibility investment mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility water depletion carrying capacity input adoption external labour supply local labour supply labour wages labour demand capital irrigation land managed food sold profits revenue food prices food transportation to markets food on farms food production B B B R B B R R B B R B R B
  37. 37. mobility and accessibility investment mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility water depletion carrying capacity input adoption external labour supply local labour supply labour wages labour demand capital irrigation land managed food sold profits revenue food prices food transportation to markets food on farms food production B B B R B B R R B B R B R B
  38. 38. !39 Reduce the spending gap • Appropriate modes of transportation • Very localised markets, informal exchange So what to do?
  39. 39. Reduce the income gap • On-/Off- farm opportunities • Local/regional non-farm opportunities
  40. 40. Reduce the wealth gap • Improve asset-building programmes • Ownership and control over new assets
  41. 41. Can you see the forest for the trees? mobility and accessibility investment mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility mobility and accessibility water depletion carrying capacity input adoption external labour supply local labour supply labour wages labour demand capital irrigation land managed food sold profits revenue food prices food transportation to markets food on farms food production B B B R B B R R B B R B R B

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