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NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
Long-term, near-term, and imminent social media “signatures” of
emerging suicide deat...
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
Background
• Previous NCVS/PERSEREC/Northrop Gru...
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
What is Dynamic System Theory (DST)?
• Assumes e...
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
Procedures
• Analyses were restricted to partici...
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
Data Analysis
• Multilevel actor-partner interde...
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
6 months 3 months 1 month 1 week Day of death
Su...
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
6 months 3 months 1 month 1 week Day of death
Su...
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
Simulations
The effect of change in triggers on ...
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
Simulations
The effect of change in triggers on ...
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
6 months 3 months 1 month 1 week Day of death
Su...
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
Simulations
The effect of change in cognition on...
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
6 months 3 months 1 month 1 week Day of death
Su...
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
Simulations
The effect of change in behavior on ...
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
Conclusion/Summary
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
Summary
• Results of the analysis explain an est...
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
Case Examples
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
Case 839
29 12/6/2011 Chilling with my baby!!!!
...
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR VETERANS STUDIES
www.veterans.utah.edu
@vetstudies
/ Veterans Studies
Questions
Craig Bryan
craig.brya...
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Social media and military suicide

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AAS 2016 slides from presentation entitled "Long-term, near-term, and imminent social media 'signatures' of emerging suicide death among military personnel"

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Social media and military suicide

  1. 1. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES Long-term, near-term, and imminent social media “signatures” of emerging suicide death among military personnel Craig J. Bryan, PsyD, ABPP Sungchoon Sinclair, MS AnnaBelle O. Bryan, BSPH Jonathan E. Butner, PhD National Center for Veterans Studies & The University of Utah
  2. 2. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES Background • Previous NCVS/PERSEREC/Northrop Grumman research collaboration supports the utility of social media data to predict which military personnel will die by suicide • In addition to knowing who will die by suicide, knowing when suicide will occur is key • Little is known about emergent suicide risk because traditional analytic methods do not consider nonlinear change processes or model interactions among multiple changing variables over time • Dynamical systems models may uncover previously unrecognized patterns
  3. 3. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES What is Dynamic System Theory (DST)? • Assumes emergence; i.e., the many constituent parts interact to form complex relationships that cannot easily be deduced from the individual parts • Emergence articulates that variability in an outcome(s) is a function of three things: stable temporal patterns, the ability to move between these stable patterns, and perturbations due to the fact that social systems are quite large and we are only examining part of the system when we choose an outcome(s) to describe it • Depicting models where forms of change are treated as the outcome(s) are able to simultaneously depict temporal patterns and the stability of those patterns under an assumption of constant perturbations. We can then characterize the system through the set of these patterns and how/when the system moves between them, essentially mapping out emergence both descriptively and inferentially
  4. 4. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES Procedures • Analyses were restricted to participants based on the following rules: – Posts made by the user – Posts within 365 days of death – Posts preceding or on the date of death – Posts appearing in chronological order – Weighted difference between posts to account for varying lengths of time between posts
  5. 5. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES Data Analysis • Multilevel actor-partner interdependence model (APIM) data structure – Separate intercepts for each of five cluster variables: trigger, cognition, emotion, physiology, behavior – Separate models run for different time frames centered at 182, 90, 30, 7, and 1 day prior to death
  6. 6. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES 6 months 3 months 1 month 1 week Day of death Suicide Control Trigger Phys Beh Emot Cog Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot
  7. 7. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES 6 months 3 months 1 month 1 week Day of death Suicide Control Trigger Phys Beh Emot Cog Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot
  8. 8. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES Simulations The effect of change in triggers on subsequent cognition posts
  9. 9. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES Simulations The effect of change in triggers on subsequent emotion posts
  10. 10. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES 6 months 3 months 1 month 1 week Day of death Suicide Control Trigger Phys Beh Emot Cog Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot
  11. 11. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES Simulations The effect of change in cognition on subsequent emotion posts
  12. 12. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES 6 months 3 months 1 month 1 week Day of death Suicide Control Trigger Phys Beh Emot Cog Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot
  13. 13. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES Simulations The effect of change in behavior on subsequent cognition posts
  14. 14. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES Conclusion/Summary
  15. 15. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES Summary • Results of the analysis explain an estimated 45 percent of the variance in death • Suicides and controls show different patterns of coordination among the five domains • “Signatures” of emerging suicide death: – Overall: Triggers driving change in emotion and cognition – Three months before suicide: Coupling of physiological domain with cognitive and emotional domains disappears – One month before suicide: Coupling of behavior with cognition emerges (increased behaviors drive less change in cognition) – One week to one day before suicide: Coupling of behavior with cognition strengthens
  16. 16. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES Case Examples
  17. 17. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES Case 839 29 12/6/2011 Chilling with my baby!!!! 30 12/7/2011 Sweet dream My Baby, I love you, Always and Forever!!!!!! 31 12/8/2011 My Baby just left and Im a total mess right now, I miss her so much already!!!! 32 12/9/2011 Has officially decided that I FLIPPIN’ HATE goin’ to bed and waking up with out MY Baby!!!! Slept like shit last night without her!!! Miss her so much!!!! 33 12/9/2011 I know right??? 34 12/9/2011 I am an always have been my own worst enemy an possibly just fukked up the BEST thing that ever happened to me!!!!! 35 12/9/2011 P Always & Forever 36 12/9/2011 Always & Forever 37 12/9/2011 [link to song lyrics] 38 12/9/2011 FUK IT!!!! 39 12/10/2011 So do not have enough alcohol for the night 12/11/2011 Case 839 dies of self-inflicted gunshot wound
  18. 18. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES www.veterans.utah.edu @vetstudies / Veterans Studies Questions Craig Bryan craig.bryan@Utah.edu
  • JaminRogovoy

    Apr. 12, 2016
  • SeanErregerLCSW

    Apr. 11, 2016
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    Apr. 11, 2016

AAS 2016 slides from presentation entitled "Long-term, near-term, and imminent social media 'signatures' of emerging suicide death among military personnel"

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