Ste ming the Hunger      emm g e            r- Co  onflict tr           ragic em ace in th               c mbra    n he   ...
1. Introduction       From Sudan to the mangrove forests of Somalia and from the Eritrean plateau to jungles   of South Su...
2. Statement of the Problem       The Horn of Africa is witnessing a devastating drought, the worst in 60 years, causing  ...
4. The famine-conflict nexus   4.1. Defining human security within the nexus:             Human security, a post-Cold War ...
Instead, sustainable victory in such conflict situations means “to win a battle for the        society, for its mindsets a...
reforms in The Horn. These shortcomings can be seen as outcomes of more or less con-scious attempts of indigenous governme...
ditionality of Western governments, notably the US, and some donor organisations.The latter pertain to the strength of the...
exception. While the changes in the Soviet Union had a definitely debilitating effect on        the Mengistu regime, the m...
7. Frameworks for policy and operational strategy for sustainable livelihoods;   7.1. Responsibility:            The respo...
7.3.2. Decentralisation and prioritisation as a preparedness strategy; economic integration                 for sustainabl...
need, on the other side, derives from the security problems, which arise because of mass        forced population movement...
ReferencesAmnesty International (2005): "Counter-terrorism and criminal law in the EU" AI:BrusselsChalecki, E.L, 2007, Env...
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Stemming the hunger conflict tragic embrace in the horn of africa

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The central hypothesis in ensuring human security and development is that the relative strength of political organisations determines the rules of the political game that are installed. It requires a plural set of political organisations which promote and protect rules of peaceful political participation and competition.

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Stemming the hunger conflict tragic embrace in the horn of africa

  1. 1. Ste ming the Hunger emm g e r- Co onflict tr ragic em ace in th c mbra n he Greate Horn of A ca er Afric BT Costan ntinos, PhD Pr rofessor of Public Policy, Sc chool of Grad duate Studies, De- , par rtment of Pub Managem blic ment and Polic College of M cy, Man- agement, Innformation an Economic S nd Sciences, AAU U Insti itute f Sec for curity Studi (IS y ies SS)The im mplicatio of dr ons rought a and famin on pe ne eace and security in d y the Horn of Africa: Concern and P e f ns Practices in IGAD Region D n, 13-14, D Dec. 2011, Addis Ab baba, Ethio opiaAbstract t The nnumber of peo ople in need of humanitar rian assis-tance thro oughout the Horn of Afri currently stands at ica13.3 milliion. In Soma alia, the progrression of th drought heinto famin requires a renewed com ne mmitment. Th tragedy, hewhich is taking such a heavy toll of l h life, has highl lighted thefundamen weakness of the initiat ntal s tives. The nee for col- edlective lea arning about responses an the respon nd nsibility tothose who suffering provided the basis for tha learning ose e atwill never be more ur r rgent than it is now. Unfo ortunately,such lesso are rarely translated q ons y quickly into personal ororganisati ional memori and the inherent will to change. ies o The objective of the research is to under h rstand thevulnerabil lities in the region and pr r ropose the tra ajectories:origins, vvision, issues and challeng ges, potentia areas of alinterventi that would breed an ec ion d conomic socie ety. The ccentral hypot thesis in ens suring human security nand devel lopment is th the relativ strength o political hat ve oforganisati ions determin the rules of the polit nes s tical gamethat are iinstalled. It requires a plu r ural set of po olitical or-ganisation which pro ns omote and pr rotect rules o peaceful ofpolitical p participation and competit tion. Togethe institu- er,tions (pluural organisa ations plus ruules of accou untability)ensure tha droughts do not necessa at d arily lead to faamine andfamine in turn to conflicts over reso ources. This think piece is pa k artly an ex xcerpt from the book “Stemmin State m ng Fragility, Failure an Collapse” by the a , nd author
  2. 2. 1. Introduction From Sudan to the mangrove forests of Somalia and from the Eritrean plateau to jungles of South Sudan, new faces and forces of vulnerability and poverty haunt the Greater Horn of Africa. Conflicts, disasters, poverty and pandemics now threaten the sub-region with a ca- lamity unforeseen even during the Great African Famine of the 1980s. The number of people in need of humanitarian assistance throughout the Horn of Africa currently stands at 13.3 million. Approximately 750,000 Somalis including 490,000 in rural areas, primarily in Bay, Shabelle and Bakool regions, and 260,000 IDPs in Mogadishu and the Afgooye corridor are reportedly at risk of death during the next four months without sufficient relief, according to the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit-Somalia. Insecurity and lack of humanitarian access continue to significantly constrain relief efforts in Somalia. (USAID 2011) In Somalia, the progression of the drought into famine requires a renewed commitment. As such, as expressed and committed at the Summit in Kenya on the Horn of Africa Crisis: Ending drought emergencies, a declaration has been made that the present situation will have to be the last time any drought will be tolerated to turn into famine, in the region. Ac- cordingly, the story–eradicating drought in the Horn of Africa–is age-old. As such, there ought to be assurance that this will not be the “nth” meeting on the said initiative; a long- term solution/framework is required. Following the The Nairobi IGAD-EAC Summit and the 41st Extraordinary IGAD Council of Ministers meet- ing of 21 October 2011 directed IGAD to take the lead in coordinating Member States and Part- ners efforts in addressing the current drought and food crisis in the region. As a result, The World Bank and the African Development Bank have pledged substantial funding to support the region build its drought resilience through sustained long-term development efforts. Such success stories notwithstanding and while many proposals for continuous remedial action have been formulated for vulnerabilities that haunt the sub-region, real commitment to collaborative processes at the international level has always been limited. Mobilising the action required has also remained a daunting challenge, as many practical and structural constraints militate against commitment by the international community. The tragedy, which is taking such a heavy toll of life, has also highlighted the fundamental weakness of the initiatives. Many conventional and preconceived notions have been questioned and new ideas pro- posed. Efforts have also been made to improve our understanding of vulnerabilities, to esti- mate the risks resulting there from more accurately and to make adequate preventive meas- ures against insecurity, ahead of time. In this sense, the traditional role of humanitarian agencies has been harshly, even cruelly, tested. The need for collective learning about responses and the responsibility to those whose suffering provided the basis for that learning will never be more urgent than it is now. Un- fortunately, such lessons, which may be learned through the shocks administered by an un- compromising reality, are rarely translated quickly into personal or organisational memories and the inherent will to change. The reasons for this are sometimes rooted in human inertia, weakness and self-interest. They are equally often the products of a genuine confusion about how to act most effectively in an environment that seems to be growing more complex. To every human problem in Africa, there is always a solution that is smart, simple and immoral. Important stakeholders tend to have a linear way of thinking that is inadequate to unravel the many complex inter-relationships underlying people’s human insecurity. It is neither popular nor scientific. The need for the fundamental change on how the global community deals with the internecine crises must change. As a region whose visions of hu- man security are defined by the tenacity to achieve the compact defined by the MDGs, citi- zens of the region are right to aspire secure livelihoods. The presentation will focus on the statement of the problem, the current initiatives in making famine history and the political and policy trajectories needed to make famine history in the Horn. Stemming the tide of hunger and conflicts in the Horn of Africa, BTC 2011 | 1
  3. 3. 2. Statement of the Problem The Horn of Africa is witnessing a devastating drought, the worst in 60 years, causing widespread famine with 13 million people in need of humanitarian assistance. In response to this disaster, the AU held a Pledging Conference on 25 August 2011, and the Heads of State and Government of IGAD and EAC Member States held a joint Summit in Nairobi on 9 Sep- tember 2011 at which they declared their firm commitment to end drought emergencies in the Horn of Africa. Nonetheless, the reality is of one of marginalisation, demanding radical developmental reconfiguration of nations. The later breeds despondency, desperation, in- tolerance, and of course belligerence; so much so that political forces in every corner have mobilised the youth for violent ends, often to the detriment of their very own livelihoods. The unfolding human tragedy, its impact on human development and its consequences on politics are indeed too ghastly to contemplate. Whereas, the challenge simply stated, un- derpins the need to connect to the energies of the people, instead, for so many years they were encouraged to look to outsiders to provide the means and processes of change. They have been discouraged from mobilising for local actions and for their own development, finding themselves in positions of unequal power, making it very tempting for many in poli- tics to dictate conditions and terms of relationships on them. H.E. Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, Republic of Djibouti, underlined the fact that the region is going through a difficult time as a result of prolonged drought; and in the case of Somalia, the drought has been exacerbated by insecurity leaving a dozen million people in need of humanitarian assistance. Our appreciation and gratitude goes to partners for their gener- ous response to the international appeal for assistance. At the present, though rain is wit- nessed in many parts of the region, given the enormity of the refugee situation created by the drought, the need for continued and sustained relief assistance will linger on for an- other 2-3 years, as the affected areas begin to recover. As droughts are naturally a cross-border phenomenon, regional leaders have embraced the regional approach to build drought resilience and enhanced drought preparedness, par- ticularly in the Arid and Semi-arid areas that cover some 80% of the region. Thus, partners are called upon to offer all the necessary support. There are three things that ought to be re- membered when designing interventions, i.e. ensure that the interventions are people cen- tred, are arrived through participatory processes, and long-term perspectives.”3. Research objective, questions, methodology and outcome 3.1. The objective of the research is to understand the vulnerabilities in the region and pro- pose the trajectories: origins, vision, issues and challenges, potential areas of interven- tion that would breed an economic society. 3.2. The expected outcome of the research is a strategic plan for ensuring sustainable liveli- hoods in the Horn: A shared understanding of the initiative (vision, objectives, scope, and strategy) and roadmap and modalities for implementing shared vision, roles and re- sponsibilities, agreed institutional arrangement. 3.3. Research questions: • What is the root cause of vulnerabilities spawning the famine-conflict nexus? • What are the conceptual underpinnings for the nexus? • What measures can be taken to ensure livelihood security that can bring peace and security to the Horn of Africa 3.4. Methodology: Secondary and primary sources such as literature review and survey of available sources have helped to provide an in-depth understanding of the situational analysis, key concepts, activities and initiatives for the review. Discussions have been held with a number of specialist staff, NGOs in the core areas of democratization, decen- tralization, federalism, peace building and conflict management and resolution.i Stemming the tide of hunger and conflicts in the Horn of Africa, BTC 2011 | 2
  4. 4. 4. The famine-conflict nexus 4.1. Defining human security within the nexus: Human security, a post-Cold War concept, is a multi-disciplinary understanding of security involving a number of research fields, which equates security with people’s wellness; ensuring freedom from want -- the basic idea that violence, poverty, ine- quality, diseases, and environmental degradation are inseparable concepts in address- ing the root causes of human insecurity -- and freedom from fear -- that seeks to limit the practice of human security to protecting individuals from violent conflicts; for all persons is the best path to tackle the problem of global insecurity refers to an emerg- ing paradigm for understanding global vulnerabilities whose proponents challenge the notion of national security by arguing that the proper referent for security should be the individual rather. It examines both the national and the global concerns of human secu- rity and seeks to deal with these concerns through a new paradigm capturing the poten- tial peace dividend, a new form of development co-operation and a restructured system of global institutions; with the scope of global security expanded to include threats in economic, food, health, environmental, personal and community securities. The concept of the responsibility to protect has been unanimously embraced by the UN GA in the UN 60th Anniversary World Summit in September 2005, and reaffirmed subsequently by the Security Council. Unlike many declarations that have preceded it, in the past seven years, one can witness the emergence of what can reasonably be de- scribed as a brand new international norm that removes the thin veneer of sovereignty from states and a novelty in the conduct of international relations: from ‘non- interference to non-indifference’ stimulating a debate around the R2P principles. Addressing these requires an agenda promoting good governance and economic develop- ment. In the long term, security is best guaranteed by democratic, accountable, and stable states presiding over sustainable development. A far-reaching agenda of security sector re- form, ensuring civilian control of the military and community based Alternative Con- flict management, will help to deliver these gains through. 4.2. Threats to human security – poverty, corruption, small arms, terrorism, diseases…, The sub-region’s poverty, caused by the plundering of public wealth is authentic threat to human security. It directly undermines trust in democratic institutions. Im- plementing supply-demand strategies and curtailing misuse public funds is imperative. The proliferation of small arms and light weapons—the real weapons of mass de- struction is another threat.ii Better control and tracking of supply needs a global treaty regulating the small arms trade.iii Arms control is also an important priority linked with the Freedom from Fear agenda. The global threat of terrorism is an important test case for the human security agenda as the human security approach would assuage the pau- city in conventional counter terrorist measures; (Elworthy & Rifkind, 2005) which include in- ter alia, sanctions or military force against a nation but not a specific target, detention without trial, body searches and night raids, that threaten to erode the very civil liberties it seeks to protect. (Fekete, L. 2002) Human security also emphasises the protection of human rights and respect for the rule of law. (Amnesty International, 2005) In many countries, some counter-terrorist meas- ures violate human rights (Human Rights News, 2004) that serve to intensify the threat of terrorism. Human security argues that a failure to respect human rights in one state may undermine international effort to co-operate to combat terrorism (Kaldor, M, 2005), thus more effort should be invested in the effective inclusion of human rights protection and the needs to address physical, psychological and political dimensions. The psycho- logical aspect highlights that the violence of a state military response simply begets fur- ther violence, provokes and consolidates support for those groups.iv Stemming the tide of hunger and conflicts in the Horn of Africa, BTC 2011 | 3
  5. 5. Instead, sustainable victory in such conflict situations means “to win a battle for the society, for its mindsets and psychologies, to address sources of grievance and anxiety, and to shore up institutions of governance”.v Human security has long been argued that the "scope" of global security should be expanded to include the threat of infectious dis- ease. (Commission on Human Security, 2003) The primary goal of human security is the protection of individuals, and infectious diseases are among the most serious threats to individuals around the world. Given the trans-national nature of infectious disease, the traditional unilateral, state-centred pol- icy approaches to these threats by infectious diseases is ineffective over the long run.vi Therefore, adopting a people-centred human security model with its emphasis on pre- vention, individual empowerment, and treatment strategies delivered by an array of global actors is possibly a pioneering approach to deal with the increasing diversity of contagious diseases. (Ibid, Kaldor, M) Human security proponents argue that by focusing on health burdens faced by local communities and individuals, policy responses will be able to address the roots causes of insecurity and vulnerability. Environmental degradation and extreme climates has direct impacts on human se- curity as it means humans are prone to more natural disasters and are faced with de- creasing resources. (Homer-Dixon, T.; 1991) Sources of possible conflict include wide-spread refugee movement, a fall in global food production and reduction in water supply (Najam, A., 2003). Water and energy, for example, are essential resources which have led to mili- tary and political turmoil worldwide. (Chalecki, E.L, 2007)5. Analytical trails in the famine conflict nexus: 5.1. Altered resource availability causing food shortages results in political disputes, ethnic tensions and civil unrests, which in turn is the basis for regional conflicts that eventually goes global. (IPCC, 2007) Furthermore, vulnerability to climate changes can be exacer- bated by other non-climate factors such as HIV/AIDS, poverty, unequal access to re- sources and economic globalisation (Perry, A, 2007), making human security all the more susceptible. A more recent example of how global warming impacts human security is the Darfur conflict. Climate changes have brought the Sahara steadily into the south and droughts are more frequent in this piece of dry land, wiping out food produce. As a re- sult there is less arable land with many people fighting for it. (The CNA Corporation, 2007). Against this background, current discussions and analyses of effective states that can stem the tide of famine and conflicts generally are marked by several limitations: 5.1.1. The first set of limitations relate to a tendency to narrow effective state thought and practice to the terms and categories of immediate, not very well considered, political and social action, a naïve realism, as it were. 5.1.2. Secondly, the limitations arise from inattention to problems of articulation or production of effective state systems and process within African politics rather than simply as formal or abstract possibilities. 5.1.3. Thirdly, we have the ambiguity as to whether civil society is the agent or object of democratic change and concerning the role of the state. 5.1.4. Finally, it is a nearly exclusive concern in certain institutional perspectives on democratisation in Africa with generic attributes and characteristics of political organisations and consequent neglect of analysis in terms of specific strategies and performances of organisations in processes of transition. In addition, we have the inadequate treatment of the role of international agencies and the rela- tions between global and indigenous aspects or dimensions of democratisation. The notion of naïve realism in the rhetorical over-simplification of the articulation of the famine-conflict nexus has been invoked here as the first mark of the global com- pact to point to certain conceptual shortcomings in current perspectives on democratic Stemming the tide of hunger and conflicts in the Horn of Africa, BTC 2011 | 4
  6. 6. reforms in The Horn. These shortcomings can be seen as outcomes of more or less con-scious attempts of indigenous governments and their international backers to quicklyget their hands on "urgent" or "practical" matters such as ‘funding’ climate change ad-aptation without worrying much about "abstract" articulation of reducing those agentsof famine that are haunting the Horn today. One manifestation of naive realism is thepre-emotive socialisation of sustainable development ideas and practices, as demon-strated, for example, by the dimensions and the implications of these dimensions offood aid and emergency management. A process which often spawns an attendant rhe-torical over simplification of difficult concepts, this socialisation is disabling as amethod of both grasping sustainable development ideas and rules in all their opennessand complexity, and making the ideas tractable to transparent and sustainable institu-tional practice. Another manifestation of the naive realist approach to the famine-conflict nexus inThe Horn is the simple equation of partisan or government elaboration of famine-conflict management strategies with the production of ideas, values, and goals in stateand more significantly civil society, that should be the harbingers of the adaptationprocess. Here, our attention and thought are diverted from the critical destination be-tween, on the one hand, a system of abstract categories as a construct of an explicit ra-tionalisation, a formal conceptualisation and design, and, broad and diverse domains ofideology and purposefulness in the plenitude of social experience, on the other. We arediscouraged from acknowledging the distance and tension between these two spheresof democratisation. Instead, one is led to believe that ideological construction in one sphere is reducibleto ideological construction in the other. As the statements: The Horn has to earn thedonor funding for climate change adaptation that assumes the form of a putative at-tribution of change agency in the climate change adaptation process, to an organisa-tionally underdeveloped and a civil society that has been deliberately rendered illiter-ate. Still another expression of naive realism in existing perspectives and projects ofadaptation and sustainable development processes is the common assumption that theproliferation of state and social organisations, mainly indigenous organisations, is inand of itself an index of what is to be borne as catalyst of adaptation and sustainabledevelopment. The assumption seems plausible. After all, what is more obvious in suchprojects of transition in The Horn than the goal of increasing the number of state andsocial institutions that will build stronger civil societies that in turn spawns favourableconditions for the adaptation process in The Horn? Nevertheless, the assumption is open to question. NGOs may be problematic inthat, far from contributing to the strengthening of civil society vis-à-vis the state, theycan function as instruments for the consolidation of technocratic elite within the non-governmental sector. The growing number and diversity of NGOs mean that the or-ganisations have very uneven political and professional capabilities, and differing levelsof commitment to processes of democratisation. They provide a range of social, hu-manitarian and relief services of varying proximity and relevance to the ends and pur-poses of democratic reform. They do not function simply as instruments to those ends,but have their own inclinations, concerns and motivations, which democratisation ofThe Horn politics and societies must take into account. Also, it appears that the prolif-eration of NGOs over the last decade has been more as outcome of funding by externaldonors than an indigenous "grassroots" phenomenon. Problems such as these consti-tute significant obstacles to the realisation of the democratic potential of NGOs. Yet another point that features prominently in the discussion of the democratisa-tion process to stem famine and conflicts in The Horn is the relative weight of externaland internal factors. To the former belong the collapse of the Communist order in East-ern Europe, the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) and the Human Rights con- Stemming the tide of hunger and conflicts in the Horn of Africa, BTC 2011 | 5
  7. 7. ditionality of Western governments, notably the US, and some donor organisations.The latter pertain to the strength of the mass and popular movements for democraticreforms inside The Horn itself. The ripple effect of the collapse of the Eastern Bloc onThe Horn is bound to vary from country to country, with the maximum effect probablyon countries like Ethiopia which were so closely tied with that bloc. The sponsors of SAPs were not particularly worried about the guaranteeing of de-mocratic rights; as a matter of fact, initially, they tended to favour authoritarian re-gimes. It may be necessary to the weight on the strength of the domestic forces, notablythe vitality of the popular movements in countries like Kenya. SAPs, which antedatedthe democratisation process by almost a decade, incidentally rather than deliberatelyabetted the democratic struggle by undermining the legitimacy of the regimes thatadopted it and whittling away the post-independence gains in social welfare. (ThandikaMkandawire, 1992) It is difficult to give much weight to the human rights conditionalityargument, given in particular the cynical manipulation of that issue by the self- ap-pointed defender of those rights. Implicitly or explicitly, the Western liberal democratic model is often taken as theacme of democratic governance. The target that Ethiopia and a host of other The Horncountries set themselves in the process of democratisation is the attainment of institu-tions and practices that have been the basic ingredients of the Western democratic tra-dition. These include above all multi-partyism, independent judiciary, free press, andpopular sovereignty expressed through the legislature. But keen observers have notbeen oblivious to the limits of this declared paragon of democracy, pointing to its for-mal character and the struggle in recent decades of marginalised groups (women, gays,ecologists, etc.) with an alternative, participatory vision of democracy to achieve whathas come to be known as the empowerment of the common man. (Eboe Hutchful, 1992) To a region that has not been able to attain even the formal aspects of democracy,limited as they might be, this groping for a deeper edition of it may sound as a bit of aluxury. On the other hand, the strengthening of civil society that underpins the alterna-tive vision of democracy is germane to the discussion of the democratisation process inThe Horn. For the ultimate hope to salvage the imperilled process seems to lie preciselyin such strengthening of civil society. Eboe Hutchful points out the well-nigh paradoxi-cal concurrence of the globalisation of the capitalist economy in the wake of the col-lapse of the Communist order and the emergence of ethno-nationalism. Ethnicity hasindeed become a force to be reckoned with and social scientists have increasingly beenforced to address it. How much it has deep historical roots and how much it is an ideol-ogy of the elite, legitimised on occasions by the very social scientists who presume toinvestigate it, remains problematic.vii Historians, looking at the issue from a relativelylonger perspective, generally tend to question the permanence of the ethnic factor.viii In sum, naive realism within existing perspectives and projects of democratisationemphasises the immediacies of institutional and political activity to the ne-glect of the constitutive and regulative concepts and norms that define,structure and validate democratic institutions and democratic practices. Itattempts to establish a direct relation to social experience, largely by passing the intan-gible yet no less significant terrain of critical political thought. Its immediate turn to thepractical tasks of inducing people to participate in ostensibly democratic activities suchas elections, the full meaning of which is often beyond the grasp of the participants,tends to become a substitute for the making of transparent and open rules of politicalengagement. Such a stratified set-up was scarcely conducive to the generation or fostering of de-mocratic traditions. Innovations and initiatives have therefore tended to come fromabove rather than to emanate from below. The current democratisation process is no Stemming the tide of hunger and conflicts in the Horn of Africa, BTC 2011 | 6
  8. 8. exception. While the changes in the Soviet Union had a definitely debilitating effect on the Mengistu regime, the main impetus for change came from within rather than from without. Yet, no urban mass movement heralded the fall of Mengistu. It was swept aside after suffering total military defeat in the hands of a predominantly rural guerrilla force. And the tone and the terms of the democratisation process have been set by the victors.6. Brief on Food Security and Nutrition Conditions in the Horn (FAO, 2011) There are slight improvements of the food security situation as the short rains begin in the Horn and slight decline of international food prices as good global crop production foreseen. The FAO Food Price Index has been falling steadily since June. In October, it dropped to an 11-month low, but still some 5% above the corresponding period last year. Food prices still remain generally higher than last year and are very volatile. All food com- modity prices dropped, with sugar showing the highest drop. Prices of local staples slightly declining but remain high. Prices of locally produced staples (maize and sorghum) showing a declining month-on-month trend in most markets in the eastern Horn. However, the prices are still significantly higher than the 5-year average in all markets by between: 125- 220 % for white maize, 58-382 % for red sorghum. The high prices are driven by low stocks, high marketing costs (related to poor infrastructure and high fuel prices), and in some cases, insecurity. Prices of imported staples dropped marginally, but still high. Prices of rice are stable/marginally increasing but are still above the 5- year average by between 12 to 43 % Conflicts due to weakening of the local cur- rencies, high marketing costs, inse- curity. Despite favourable start of the season, food security in the eastern Horn is still precarious due to high staple food prices, con- strained humanitarian response and increasing disease incidences. Early onset of the short/deyr rains in the Eastern Horn. Ongoing famine to persist in the affected areas until next deyr harvest (from Jan 2012) due to low cereal stocks, high food prices and declining ability to purchase food through the sale of live- stock or wage labour. Most households are able to meet only 40-50 % of their basic survival needs through production, markets & coping strategies. Humanitarian agencies are unable to effectively fill the prevailing food gap due to insecurity. Food security in pastoral Gedo, Juba and Bakool likely to improve due to impacts of the rains and following the return of camel herds from areas they had migrated to. Early start of the rains has improved water and browse availability and enhanced access to milk from shoats and camels in pastoral live- lihoods. Labour opportunities have improved in the cropping areas, increasing household incomes. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, IPC scale (FEWS NET, 2010), is a tool for improving food security analysis and decision-making. It classifies as generally food secure, borderline food insecure, acute food and livelihood crisis, humanitarian emergency and famine/humanitarian catastrophe./ Stemming the tide of hunger and conflicts in the Horn of Africa, BTC 2011 | 7
  9. 9. 7. Frameworks for policy and operational strategy for sustainable livelihoods; 7.1. Responsibility: The responsibility to save lives in not just a responsibility of member states but as human beings, all have to come up with a holistic approach to tackle the enormous issue on hand. The focus should be people centred.” In doing so, the discussions should re- volve around the questions of: What should the initiatives constitute? What are the short-term emergencies and what are the long-tem solutions? Can we design a more creative framework? What type of funding do we need? What are the functional tra- jectories to make the Initiative effective? All actors face opportunities and obligations to put the issue in a larger context. An intervention to address drought and famine is part and parcel of a growth agenda. The issue on hand is an organisational and intellectual challenge. However, the focus should be on the organisational challenge, centred on understanding the issues around the hu- man dimension and social structure. However, caution has to be taken to ensure there is no duplication of efforts, hence the need for critical roles in coordination, galvanising the common agenda and merger of the various initiatives, harmonising resources and building capacity, to contribute to a changing environment. 7.2. Regional cohesion, information sharing, accountability, transparency, M&E required to Create and support a multi-donor trust fund for disaster related emergencies, to be managed and facilitated by a regional body. The financial mechanisms and arrange- ments should be categorised into funds for: early warning, response and long-term sus- tainability. A reform of the system of emergency response is required, launching a re- gional project to address underlying causes of vulnerability in drought prone areas and intensifying cooperation to further promote cross-border projects. Capable regional in- stitution is needed that is mandated to perform the overall tasks of advocacy and lobby- ing, policy guidance and coordination, resource mobilisation, communication and in- formation sharing, and capacity building, it is to be viewed as a convening body that brings actors together for implementation of cross cutting trans-boundary issues. Partnership strategy: The following figure relates the interface between the various elements that contribute directly to the synergy that enhances livelihoods sustainability. The can be clustered under the following categories. Capital formation and accumulation Tools Human capital, spiritual, natural, Multi-track communications, participatory physical and social capital planning and strategic programme review Multi-track synergy leading to Sustainable livelihoods in the Horn Adaptive strategies Continuum Processual/strategic elements Resilience Benchmarks Peace and security Economic efficiency, Livelihoods and environment: NRM, FS... Social equity, Economic integration Ecological sustainability Levels of application: sub-regional, national and local 7.3. To function as a convening body, a mechanism that will assist in the coordination, strategising, and implementation process is required. Support is necessary for short and long-term capacity to strengthen the human, technical and financial aspects. In this sense, evidence-based policy analysis, formulation and management of sec- toral policies that contribute to enhancing capacity to withstand shocks can stem 7.3.1. Policy focus and targets: resilience that leads to strategies for sustainable livelihoods policy determination and popular participation as a strategy for sustainable liveli- hood security: emergency aid - development continuum Stemming the tide of hunger and conflicts in the Horn of Africa, BTC 2011 | 8
  10. 10. 7.3.2. Decentralisation and prioritisation as a preparedness strategy; economic integration for sustainable livelihoods, gender sensitive poverty reduction strategy; 7.3.3. Creation of a favourable macro-economic environment: agriculture, livestock, natural resources and rural economy development strategies and formulation of a Disaster Management Plan and modifying existing stress and shock management structures; 7.3.4. Development of knowledge management and communities of practice systems 7.4. Adaptive mechanisms that lead to Sustainable Livelihoods in Arid and Semi-Arid land use systems: Adaptive strategies and capacities generate and maintain means of living and enhance well being and that of future generations. They represent permanent change in community strategy, and structure, organisational processes. These capacities are contingent upon availability, stability and accessibility of options, which are ecologi- cal, socio-cultural, economic and political. They are predicated on equity, ownership of resources and participatory and wise decision-making -- notions of sustainable human development and livelihoods that incorporate the idea of change and uncertainty. 7.5. Priority areas for long-term investment: Sustainable livelihoods management structures and functions: to define duties and responsibilities of government, NGOs, CSOs, CBOs, private sectors and development partners for sustainable livelihoods. 7.5.1. sustainable management of surface and underground water, sustainable use of natu- ral resources including rangelands; securing pastoral assets and production systems; market-related infrastructure and financial services and new approaches on conflict- sensitivity and disaster risk reduction; 7.5.2. Focus the intervention strategies should be to enhance the resilience of vulnerable pastoral and agro-pastoral communities: i.e. build the capacity of those affected to manage, adapt to, cope with, recover from risks to their livelihoods and minimise the impact of drought: investment in sustainable management of surface and under- ground water for domestic use and crop and livestock production: investment in sus- tainable use of natural resources including rangelands and value chains of the re- sources therein, integrated investment to secure pastoral assets and production sys- tems, investment to enhance access to affordable financial services and marketing in- frastructure and investment in integrating conflict management, peace building and disaster risk reduction into the development agenda 7.5.3. strengthening regional and national frameworks to reduce the impact of disasters: 7.5.3.1. Results-based strategy based on rigorous consultative process, with increased commitment by stakeholders towards shifting from dis- aster response to disaster risk reduction and development of sustained support in terms of capacity and resources for the implementation of priority recovery and long-term resilience building interventions in the region; 7.5.3.2. Peace and Security, agriculture and food security, environ- ment protection, natural resources management and livestock development, regional integration, humanitarian Affairs, cri- ses response and thematic areas: cross cutting all sectors include strengthening of institutions, mechanism to prevent cross-border crimes, conflict surveillance and peace building in pastoral areas;8. Conclusion Violence, hunger, corruption, natural disasters, and pandemics vulnerability and poverty still haunt the sub-region like never before despite all the scientific, technological and socio- political development that bolsters peace and security. The spill over effect of conflicts breeds million of displaced peoples prompting for a dual need to find solutions: a humani- tarian need, on one side, which stems from the suffering of people affected; and a strategic Stemming the tide of hunger and conflicts in the Horn of Africa, BTC 2011 | 9
  11. 11. need, on the other side, derives from the security problems, which arise because of mass forced population movements and the forces that provoke them. Première institutions of the sub-region must focus on human quality and capital devel- opment; it has built the requisite foundation for regional advocacy, cooperation and de- ployments of alliances. Accompanied by and in the course of these developments, the meas- ure needed underpins the import of building coalitions of entrepreneurs, parastatals and states to glean the benefits of regional alliances, and put in place strategies for fruitful nega- tions that would enhance its leverage. Hence, it is working on specific pointers in the revi- talisation process. These are the need to search for and provide a fresh and renewed focus in response to regional challenges, opportunities and responsibilities underpinning the need to develop systems for human security and development and learning from best practices. Participatory Situation analysis: Policy, strategy, processes and structures Strategic analysis of information collected and collated Evaluation START Managing Develop tools and Institutional Ar- rangements for implementation andSTRATEGIC INFORMATION monitoring AND KNOWLEDGE Blend to National Strategic Frameworks on peace and security, regional eco- Sustained Implementation nomic integration and livelihood secu-Management and Response Activities rity and environment… Decentralised Management at the Mainstreaming and integration and level of Member States set-ups operational Plans Fig 2 Partnership integration/ mainstreaming Preparedness should be a basis for sustaining life during emergencies and maintain- ing the morale of affected groups in order to create conditions for qualitative social change. The construct has emerged as the integration of population, resources, envi- ronment and development in four aspects: stabilising population, reducing migration, fending of core exploitation and long-term sustainable resource management. Nevertheless, with few exceptions, nations have failed to win popular legitimacy- possessing relatively few authentic, social organisations that can articulate and aggregate social interests and civic leadership on education remain generally non-existent or at best, weak or underdeveloped. Indeed, there is no more compelling raison dêtre nor a mission-objective so utterly entrenched in the preservation and, even advancement of human-kind, than good governance and leadership that can lead a social league to relate cogently to an epidemic of ignorance and hence under-employment that has spun out of control. Hence, we assert that, the widespread incidence of poverty is directly attribut- able to basic weaknesses of political leadership, rules and political institutions. The central hypothesis in employment for human security development is that the relative strength of political organisations determines the rules of the political game that are installed. It requires a plural set of political organisations which promote and protect rules of peaceful political participation and competition. To- gether, institutions (plural organisations plus rules of accountability) ensure con- trol of the state executive and making famine history. In taking an institutional perspective, we assume that actors in the political system express preferences through organisations that vary in strength according to their resource base. Stemming the tide of hunger and conflicts in the Horn of Africa, BTC 2011 | 10
  12. 12. ReferencesAmnesty International (2005): "Counter-terrorism and criminal law in the EU" AI:BrusselsChalecki, E.L, 2007, Environmental Security: A Case Study of Climate Change, Pacific Institute for Studies in Devel- opment, Environment, and Security, UN:New YorkCommission on Human Security (2003), Human Security Now, UN:New York.Eboe Hutchful, "The International Dimensions of the Democratisation Process in The Horn", paper presented at the Seventh General Assembly of CODESRIA, Dakar, 10-14 February 1992Elworthy & Rifkind (2005): Hearts and Minds: human security Approaches to Political Violence, UK: DEMOS,Fekete, L. 2002. ‘All in the name of security’ in Scraton P. (Ed) Beyond September 11: An Anthology of Dissent, Pluto Press, London.FEWS NETIPC Acute Food Insecurity Reference Table for Household Groups, http://www.fews.net/ml/en/info/pages/scale.aspx , accessed Nov. 9, 2011FSNWG (Food Security and Nutrition Working Group), Nairobi, 10th November 2011.Homer-Dixon, T.; 1991, “On the threshold: Environmental Changes as Causes of Acute Conflict”, International Secu- rity, Vol. 16, No. 2., pp. 76-116Human Rights News (2004): "Human Rights and Counter-Terrorism", in the Briefing to the 60th Session of the UN Commission on Human Rights. New YorkIPCC (2007), Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability"Kaldor, M, 2005, ‘The red zone’ in R Belcher (Ed), Re-imagining Security, London: British Council, 2004 cited in El- worthy & Rifkinds "Hearts and Minds: human security Approaches to Political Violence," UK: DEMOSNajam, A., 2003, “Environment & Security: Exploring the links” in Environment, Development and human security Najam, A. ed,Perry, A, (2007), "How to prevent the next Darfur. Step one: Get serious about climate change", Time MagazineThandika Mkandawire, "Adjustment, Political Conditionality and Democratisation in The Horn", paper presented at the Seventh General Assembly of CODESRIA, Dakar, 10-14 February, 1992, pp. 5-8, 12. Cf. Bathily, p. 17, who also sees the East European factor as "un facteur favorable et non le facteur initial déterminant".The CNA Corporation, (2007) "National Security and the threat of Climate Change”U.S. Agency for International Development Fact Sheet #12, Fiscal Year (FY) 2011: Key Developments, http://allafrica.com/stories/201110010096.html, accessed Nov. 9, 2011 i Case studies on problem areas, conflict policies and annual reports have been utilized as a valuable backgroundfor the evaluation report. Credible international and national sources and other noteworthy papers, reviews, andbooks have been used as a paramount reference. Individuals and groups with specialized knowledge and experienceresponsible for the achievement of institutional purposes have been interviewed. Interviews with project stakeholdersin conflict-related issues have also been held. Lengthy and detailed discussions have been held as to their conceptuali-zation of famine precursors, peace building, conflict resolution and security strategy and mechanism process… ii International Action Network on Small Arms www.iansa.org, accessed June 9, 2010 iii UN Department for Disarmament Affairs, http://disarmament.un.org:8080/cab/salw.html, The NGO cam-paign for a small arms treaty is at www.controlarms.org. accessed June 9, 2010 iv The Military Dilemmas of Humanitarian Intervention, Security Dialogue, 24(2) 2005 v Human Rights News (2004): "Human Rights and Counter-Terrorism", in the Briefing to the 60th Session of theUN Commission on Human Rights) New York Helsinki Process Track Report (2004); Working Paper for the HelsinkiProcess: Report of the Track on “human security Empowering people at risk: human security priorities for the 21stcentury. Report of the Helsinki process on globalisation and democracy track on “human security” The human secu-rity Track commissioned and was greatly assisted by the following papers, all delivered to the Track in mid-2004: vi The World Health Organization www.who.int and UNAIDS www.unaids.org are indispensable sources. ChapterSix in human security Now describes an urgent and practical global health agenda. For more on health in the humansecurity context: Chen, L., Fukuda-Parr, S. and Seidensticker, E., eds., Human Insecurity in a Global World, Cam-bridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 2003 vii See Eghosa E. Osaghae, "A Re-examination of the Conception of Ethnicity in The Horn as an Ideology of Inter-Elite Competition," The Horn Study Monographs, 12 (1) (June 1991), pp. 43- 60. Martin Doornbos calls ethnicity "theresilient paradigm" ("Linking the Future to the Past", Review of African Political Economy, No. 52, 1991, p. 53),thereby implicitly underlining its epistemological, more than its objective, value. viii Bayart, p. 7. See also Taddesse Tamrats articles: "Processes of Ethnic Interaction and Integration in EthiopianHistory: The Case of the Agaw", Journal of African History, 29 (1988); "Ethnic Interaction and Integration in Ethio-pian History: The Case of the Gafat", Journal of Ethiopian Studies, 21 (1989). Stemming the tide of hunger and conflicts in the Horn of Africa, BTC 2011 | 11

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