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Approaches for collaborative modeling


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Presented March 20th 2018 for University of Bonn's Department of Horticultural Sciences at Klein Altendorf at the international meeting 'State of the art in tree dormancy; a blueprint for future research and modeling' as part of the PASIT project. Approaches for collaborative modeling – in an effort to develop a new dormancy model for temperate fruit trees

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Approaches for collaborative modeling

  1. 1. Approaches for collaborative modeling Cory Whitney Eike Luedeling University of Bonn
  2. 2. Model development process Experts Decision Analysts Frame Analyze Model
  3. 3. Framing • The ‘front end’ of model building • Focus on developing what & why • Basis for quantitative model – boundary conditions – success measures – model hierarchy – strategy table – action items – influence diagram Hybrid success Yield increaseHybrid investment Net Profit
  4. 4. Cognitive biases Biases can be a bottleneck in the model development process
  5. 5. Cognitive biases Anchoring Kahnemann, 2011. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Penguin. Daniel Kahneman fortune-trade-show-tabletop-spin-carnival-game • Study with a rigged wheel of fortune that only had 2 numbers (10 and 65) • Test persons were asked to spin the wheel and write down the number • Then they were asked the question ‘What is the percentage of African nations in the UN?’ o Average for those that landed on 10: 25% o Average for those that landed on 65: 45%
  6. 6. Cognitive biases Anchoring Debiasing techniques • Avoid anchors • Provide multiple and counter anchors • Use different experts who use different anchors Montibeller and Detlof von Winterfeldt. 2015. Cognitive and Motivational Biases in Decision and Risk Analysis, Risk Analysis
  7. 7. Cognitive biases Confirmation bias • Interpret things so that they confirm prior belief What the facts say What confirms prior belief FoolishOvervaluedUndervalued
  8. 8. Cognitive biases Confirmation bias Debiasing techniques • asking for counterfactuals • using multiple experts • adopting group processes • prompting for alternative hypotheses Montibeller and Detlof von Winterfeldt. 2015. Cognitive and Motivational Biases in Decision and Risk Analysis, Risk Analysis
  9. 9. Cognitive biases Framing effect • Drawing different conclusions from the same information, depending on how that information is presented .5 .5
  10. 10. Cognitive biases Apophenia • Spontaneous perception of connections and meaningfulness of unrelated phenomena www.thunderbolts.infoFigure of random points representing the clustering illusion Figure of the man in the moon
  11. 11. Wikipedia'scomplete(asof2016)listof cognitivebiases,JohnManoogian
  12. 12. Divergence Approaches for collaborative modeling a1 b3 a2 b2 a4 b4 a3 b1 A? ? ? ? ? ? • Collect all ideas Divergence Specific problem defined • Open discussion • Unpack / disaggregate complexity • Gather diverse variables / interactions
  13. 13. Convergence a b A Outcome Approaches for collaborative modeling • Clarify relationships and concepts Convergence Emergence • Program model • Identify important variables • Follow up and share • Focused discussion • Develop concrete descriptions (circles and arrows) • Peer review of graphical model
  14. 14. 1-2 Café Structured conversational process ©2015TheWorldCaféCommunityFoundationCreativeCommonsAttribution Approaches for collaborative modeling
  15. 15. Participants divided among tables at a café a. consider the question on own, b. share their ideas with a neighbor, c. share with the whole group through drawing relationships (bubbles and arrows) Inspired by the ‘Liberating Structures’ (Henri Lipmanowicz and Keith McCandless) and ‘World Café’ methods (The World Café Community Foundation). 1-2 Café Structured conversational process Approaches for collaborative modeling
  16. 16. How to divide the problem?
  17. 17. • How are we going to tackle this? • What are our different perspectives? • Shall we – approach from different angles? – divide into disciplinary groups? 1-2 Café Structured conversational process a. Consider the question on own (1-2 min) b. Share ideas with a neighbor (2-3 min) c. Share with the group of four (5-10 min) How to divide the problem?