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Rajasthan priorities education, sunay policy advisory

Rajasthan priorities education, sunay policy advisory

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Rajasthan priorities education, sunay policy advisory

  1. 1. Education Rajesh Chakrabarti, Kushal Sagar Prakash, Mansi Arora Sunay Policy Advisory Rajasthan Priorities conference, Jaipur, June 8-11
  2. 2. Introduction Analyzed interventions Conclusion Structure of the presentation Teaching at the right level Computer assisted learning at the right level Performance linked pay incentives to teachers In-service training of teachers Further reduction of PTR Analyzed interventions
  3. 3. Introduction Enrolment & retention rates in India Quality of education in India Learning outcomes continue to remain low and even decline over years in Rajasthan  45% of Grade 5 students state could not read a Grade 2 textbook in 2016  % of Grade 5 students able to do division decreased from 46.8 % in 2007 to 37.2% in 2016 Improving learning outcomes with limited budget  Rajasthan’s education budget fell from 19% in 2010 to ~17% in 2016 (RBI, 2016)  Reaping higher benefits from current expenditure is one way to bridge the gap
  4. 4. More about the current state Enrolments in Rajasthan government and private schools - 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 10,000,000 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Private schools Government Schools
  5. 5. First analyzed intervention Teaching at the Right Level (TaRL)
  6. 6. Description of TaRL Organizing children in groups based on current learning levels, instead of an age based classification Two ways of deploying TaRL Running camps with staff and volunteers over short intervals The scale is small Partnership with government The scale is large Ways of setting time for TaRL in school An extra hour to the school day exclusively for TaRL Incorporating TaRL within the existing school time Exclusive TaRL time in camps Eg: In Haryana Eg: In APEg: Pratham’s Balsakhi program Eg: In Haryana, AP Eg: Pratham’s Balsakhi program Analyzed
  7. 7. Costs involved in implementing TaRL Cost components Estimated total costs per student annually For TaRL with no extra hour: Rs.1157 For TaRL with an extra hour: Rs.3028 Direct cost of teaching (Rs.813 per child annually) Opportunity cost Volunteer’s time for preparation, travel and assistance (Rs.344 per child annually) Volunteer’s, teacher’s and students’ time (Rs.2215 per child annually)
  8. 8. Benefits from TaRL Benefits are gains in lifetime earnings from improved learning outcomes Aslam et al. (2011) links gain in test scores with labour market returns Benefit is Rs.58,525 annually for every individual Net Present value (NPV) of lifetime benefits is calculated Improved learning outcomes from TaRL Improved test results (0.15 SD increase in Lang) Wage returns from improved test results 3% (Impact on wage/yr)
  9. 9. Benefits from TaRL 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 Gaininannualincome Working age of an individual Benefit to an individual over lifetime
  10. 10. Total costs, total benefits and cost-benefit ratios Discount rate 3% 5% 8% Benefit (1000 INR) 105 58.5 27.4 Cost (1000 INR) 1.15 1.15 1.15 BCR 91 51 24 Discount rate 3% 5% 8% Benefit (1000 INR) 105 58.5 27.4 Cost (1000 INR) 3.03 3.03 3.03 BCR 35 19 9 Scenario 1: without an extra hour Scenario 2: with an extra hour
  11. 11. Second analyzed solution Computer assisted learning (CAL) at the right level
  12. 12. Description of computer assisted learning (CAL) at the right level Application of personalized technology for increased positive effect on learning outcomes Provides differentiated remedial instruction (based on learning levels), has an interactive user interface and allows for feedback The model of Mindspark is analyzed for benefit-cost ratio Mindspark CAL software, developed by Educational Initiatives (EI). Some key highlights: • Used by 400,000 students, has a database of over 45,000 test questions, and administers over a million questions every day • Benchmarks the learning level of every student and customizes material delivered based on level and rate of progress • Analyzes data to identify patterns of student errors, and targets content to alleviate conceptual ‘bottlenecks’
  13. 13. Costs involved in implementing CAL at the right level Cost components Costs for scaling are estimated from Muralidharan et al (2017) Cost per student for 5 month scaled intervention is Rs.1333 Infrastructure Hardware Staffing Pro-rated cost for software development Cost falls to Rs.267 per student per month if it is scaled to 50 schools, from Rs.1000 for pilot
  14. 14. Benefits from CAL at right level Benefits are gains in lifetime earnings from improved learning outcomes Benefit is Rs.98,825 annually for every individual Net Present value (NPV) of lifetime benefits is calculated Improved learning outcomes from CAL at RL Improved test results 0.36 SD increase Math 0.22 SD increase Lang Wage returns from improved test results Aslam et al. (2011)Muralidharan et al. (2017) 5.08% (Impact on wage/yr)
  15. 15. Benefits from CAL at right level 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 Gaininannualincome Working age of an individual Benefit to an individual over lifetime
  16. 16. Total costs, total benefits and cost-benefit ratio Discount rate 3% 5% 8% Benefit (1000 INR) 177.2 98.8 46.3 Cost (1000 INR) 1.3 1.3 1.3 BCR 133 74 35
  17. 17. Third analyzed solution Performance based incentives to teachers
  18. 18. Description of performance linked pay incentive to teachers Providing pay incentives (bonus) to teachers that are linked to performance of students Literature finds evidence of the intervention:  Reducing teacher absenteeism  Getting teachers to apply sincere effort  Increase children’s test score Literature also finds evidence of no impact A relatively difficult intervention to implement, sustain and scale
  19. 19. Costs involved in providing performance pay incentive to teachers Cost components Murlidharan (2012) estimates the annual cost for 1 student annually in 2005 for 5 year intervention Present value of total annual cost of the intervention per student was estimated to be Rs.2,391 Net present value of costs is taken, considering intervention goes on for 5 years Program cost Cost of administration Rs.552 per student annually (with inflation adjustment)
  20. 20. Benefits from performance pay incentive to teachers Benefits are gains in lifetime earnings of students from improved learning outcomes Benefit is Rs.58,442 annually for every individual Net Present value (NPV) of lifetime benefits is calculated Improved learning outcomes from incentive Improved test results (0.17 SD increase) Wage returns from improved test results Conservative effect size from a suite of Indian studies on incentives Aslam et al. (2011) 3.06% (Impact on wage/yr)
  21. 21. Benefits reaped with age 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 Gaininannualincome Working age of an individual Benefit to an individual with age
  22. 22. Total costs, total benefits and cost-benefit ratio Discount rate 3% 5% 8% Benefit (1000 INR) 112 58.4 24.9 Cost (1000 INR) 2.5 2.4 2.2 BCR 44 24 11
  23. 23. Fourth analyzed solution In-service training of teachers
  24. 24. Description of in-service training to teachers Involves providing in-service training to teachers to build skills and values  Takes place periodically during the year  Conducted in the form of formal or in-formal programs that are educational or social  Involves all teachers currently active in the state The RTE expects the state governments to create a system of in-service training in the state
  25. 25. Problems with current approach of in-service training No need assessment for the training type and level for teachers No mechanism to identify which teachers to call based on teachers who attended/ did not attend the same training in the past Lack of motivation among teachers to attend the training Master trainers are not fully equipped to conduct high quality 10 day training after attending only a 5 day training
  26. 26. Cost and benefit from in-service teacher training Cost components Cost per student annually is Rs.574 Benefits For the present model of in-service training, the benefits would be less than or equal to the cost Direct cost of teacher training (Rs.4558 annually per teacher) Opportunity cost for teachers to avail training (Rs.6346 annually per teacher)
  27. 27. Total costs, total benefits and cost-benefit ratio BCR for the intervention: ~ 1 The benefit cost ratio of this intervention is based on the review of literature Rigorous & in-depth tertiary courses + pre-service training: 0 to modest effects on student learning (literature) Benefits from less rigorous and general in-service training: Highly limited If in-service training approach is revamped: A modest 0.01 SD improvement in test scores would yield a BCR of 6 in Rajasthan
  28. 28. Fifth analyzed solution 50 percent reduction in the pupil-teacher ratio
  29. 29. Description of further reducing PTR Reduction of pupil teacher ratio (PTR) further by 50% RTE stipulates PTRs for primary (30) and upper primary levels (35) Rajasthan is well within the target Review of literature suggests that further reductions may yield greater effects on learning outcomes (Muralidharan and Sundararaman 2013, Giridar and Karopady, 2005) Case of AP  even with PTR within RTE figures, further 50% reduction improved performance substantially Based on the idea that smaller class size leads to improved learning
  30. 30. Costs involved in further reduction of PTR Cost components Annual cost of intervention per student: Rs.17,368 Salary of additional teachers Identifying and recruiting extra teachers Training extra teachers Not considered Hence conservative estimates of costs  Optimistic BCR Annual wage of trained teacher in Rajasthan: Rs.3,30,000
  31. 31. Benefits from reducing PTR Benefits are gains in lifetime earnings of students from improved learning outcomes Benefit is Rs.85,944 annually for every individual Net Present value (NPV) of lifetime benefits is calculated Improved learning outcomes from incentive Improved test results (0.25 SD increase) Wage returns from improved test results Muralidharan and Sundaramana, 2013 Aslam et al. (2011) 4.5% (Impact on wage)
  32. 32. Benefits reaped with age 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 Gaininannualincome Working age of an individual Benefit to an individual
  33. 33. Total costs, total benefits and cost-benefit ratio Discount rate 3% 5% 8% Benefit (1000 INR) 164.7 85.9 36.6 Cost (1000 INR) 17.4 17.4 17.4 BCR 9 5 2
  34. 34. Conclusion Five education interventions are studied in the paper High BCRs TaRL, CAL at right level, performance based incentives to teachers Low BCRs In-service training of teachers, reducing PTR ratios 74 51 24 1 5 19 Computer assisted learning at the right level Teaching at the right level Performance pay incentive to teachers In-service training of teachers Reducing PTR by 50 percent Benefit- Cost ratio summary for education interventions Without an extra hour With an extra hour
  35. 35. Conclusion 1.2 1.3 2.4 0.6 17 59 99 59 0 86 TaRL CAL at RL Teacher Incentive In-service Training PTR Costs Benefits Size of costs and benefits (1000 INR)
  36. 36. Background slides
  37. 37. Aslum et al SD gains to labour market returns • 1000 HHs 18 villages, 6 towns (in India– 6 districts of Rajasthan and MP) • 14000 individuals’ data on demographic, anthropometric, education and labour market • Estimation of Mincerian earning function: •Single equation model that explains wage income as a function of schooling and experience •Y: Annual earning of individual •S: Years of literacy/ numeracy/ English •β: returns to skills/ language •X: Observed characteristics
  38. 38. Aslum et al SD gains to labour market returns • Earning functions are estimated at HH level • There is a linear relationship between years of schooling and earnings (Mincerian Earning function •RESTRICTIVE Model •Assumes that the return to each additional year of schooling is the same across each year • Presumption of linearity is relaxed by introducing a quadratic term for education • This leads to convex education-earnings relationship exists for all occupations in India

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